From Dependent Arisings:
Where are we today in the realm of presidential politics? After a long, overdrawn nomination process, we finally have not one, but two, "Black Swan" candidates. According to Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the eponymous book, a Black Swan is "large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare event beyond the realm of normal expectations." In other words, we didn't--and couldn't--have possibly conceived that McCain, the erstwhile frontrunner-cum-longshot-cum-heir apparent would simultaneously benefit from Mike Huckabee's precipitous rise and fall (due as much to anathema from the social conservative establishment as National Review types), Fred Thompson's splitting Huckabee's social conservative vote in South Carolina, and Mitt Romney's grating unctuousness raising the ire of everyone in the party other than National Review types. And lest I forget to mention, in toto, Rudy Guiliani's campaign strategy?
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