How does Obama get to the 270 votes he needs in the Electoral College?
The states are grouped in alphabetical order in 3 different groups.
The states in the first group all have an over 90% chance of an Obama win, according to Nate tonight at fivethirtyeight.com and they add up to 237 electoral votes.
The states in the second group are all probable Obama wins according to Nate tonight and adding them to the first group brings us up to 303. If we take Colorado and Virginia away from the second group we would still have 281 electoral votes. Without CO and VA all the other states in the second group have an over 71% chance of an Obama win today, according to Nate's new numbers.
The third group is a group of 1 right now. Virginia was in this group yesterday, but they moved up to probable and North Carolina still has a chance to get there, I suppose. But Florida is still in play. Winning there would bring us up to 332 electoral votes. I'm dreaming of a landslide mandate.
These states all have an over 90% chance of going Obama as of tonight.
California – 55 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (55).
Connecticut - 7 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (62)
Delaware - 3 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (65)
District of Columbia – 3 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (68)
Hawaii – 4 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (72)
Illinois – 20 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (92)
Maine – 4 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (96)
Maryland – 10 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (106)
Massachusetts – 11 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (117)
Michigan – 16 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (133)
Minnesota – 10 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (143)
New Jersey – 14 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (157)
New Mexico – 5 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (162)
New York – 29 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (191)
Oregon - 7 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (198)
Pennsylvania – 20 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (218)
Rhode Island – 4 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (222)
Vermont – 3 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (225)
Washington – 12 Electoral Votes EV – Subtotal = (237)
These 237 electoral votes are in the bag for Obama. All of them have at least a 96% of winning, according to Nate (except Pennsylvania that has a 90.4 chance as of tonight).
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