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(cross-post from FiveThirtyEight.com)

Pick your subheadline:

a) It's time to stop being polite and start getting real.
b) Here's hoping a picture is worth 1,000 words.

Any questions?

OK, I imagine that there will be a few. Here's how I came up with these numbers.

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(cross-posted at FiveThirtyEight.com)

The conservative website HowObamaGotElected.com reports that it has commissioned Zogby International to conduct a poll of 512 Barack Obama voters as part of what can best be described as a viral marketing effort to discredit the intelligence of Obama supporters.

The website, created by former radio talk show host John Ziegler to promote a forthcoming documentary, features a YouTube clip of interviews with 12 Obama voters who "were chosen for their apparent intelligence/verbal abilities and willingness to express their opinions to a large audience". The clip portrays the Obama supporters as giving "incorrect" answers to political questions such as "which candidate said his policies would likely bankrupt the coal industry and make energy rates skyrocket". Of the 12 Obama supporters interviewed for the clip, 7 (58%) are black; nationwide, about 23% of Obama supporters were black according to the national exit poll.

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Sun Jul 13, 2008 at 02:53 AM PDT

Go Team PUMA!

by poblano

I am going to put absolutely no effort into this diary so as to ensure that it is not recommended.  Instead, please recommend diaries like this one, because while the polling stuff is fun (and so is what comes next), what's happening on the ground in Iraq come November -- and how progressives frame that issue -- is going to be a lot more important in determining the outcome of the election.  

But for the insomniacs among us, comedy gold like this does not come along all that often.  

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I was directed today to the writings of Steve O'Hearn, the chair of the National Press Club's New Media Committee who maintains a blog at the National Press Club's blogging website. Suffice it to say that I disagree with pretty much everything that Steve has to say -- from his position on Larry Sinclair to his insistence (three days after the Montana and South Dakota primaries and one day after Clinton announced that she would concede) that the Democratic nomination race was "far from over", to his calling Tom Shales, the Washington Post's Pulitzer Prize- winning media critic, a "cretin". And then there's the matter of his preferring AltaVista to Google...

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Mon May 26, 2008 at 10:05 PM PDT

Adventures in Lannyland

by poblano

Lanny Davis, annotated:

   Here are two important neutral principles that should guide the Democratic National Committee’s Rules Committee when it meets May 31 to decide whether to seat the Michigan and Florida delegations — and, if so, how to allocate them between Sens. Barack Obama and Hillary Rodham Clinton.

   One principle is based in law, the second in pragmatic politics. Both principles result in the same solution: in some rough approximation, honoring the results expressed by almost 600,000 Michigan Democrats and more than 1.7 million Florida Democrats, who turned out in record numbers though they were told their votes didn't count, were not responsible for the rules violations, and don't want to be disenfranchised.

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Rush Limbaugh has re-initiated "Operation Chaos" after briefly placing it on "pause", asking his listeners to vote for Hillary Clinton in the Indiana primaries in order to prolong the Democratic nomination process.  This has been known for several days now.  It is not such an issue in North Carolina because registered Republicans may not vote in the Democratic primary (only independent voters can) and registration changes are due more than a month before the election.

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The Louisville Courier-Journal -- the largest newspaper in Kentucky and one which has significant readership in Southern Indiana -- has just endorsed Barack Obama in advance of the Indiana and Kentucky primaries.

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Wed Apr 30, 2008 at 09:16 PM PDT

Voters v Media: a concerning result

by poblano

The MSNBC evening lineup (especially Road to the White House) gave a fair amount of play tonight to a couple of results from the new NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll. This was sort of like a non-partisan push poll: voters were read a series of nine negative statements -- three for each of the three remaining candidates -- and asked about their level of concern on each one.

MSNBC spent most of their time focusing on two of these issues -- what I call "Obama/bitter" (his recent comments on religion and guns) and "Obama/values" (his associations with Jeremiah Wright and William Ayers). You might assume, from having seen the programming, that these were the foremost concerns to their poll respondents. But of course they weren't.

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Mon Apr 28, 2008 at 10:02 PM PDT

Jim Geraghty reveals his hand

by poblano

The National Review seems to particularly enjoy blogging about Jeremiah Wright.  I can sort of imagine the gang watching Wright's performance together, as they sip on a morning Chablis and kick their feet up on their desks, showing off their argyle socks.

Jim Geraghty -- otherwise known as the Dude Who Leaks Shitty Exit Polls -- had a particularly harsh critique of Wright and Obama today.

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I'd have to say that for all the different ways that the Clinton campaign has irked me over the course of this campaign, for the most part Hillary Clinton has avoided putting out specious policy proposals that might compromise the progressive agenda.  While there have been a couple of exceptions -- I think her proposed mortgage rate freeze, for instance, is terrible economics -- in general I have agreed with the vast bulk of her domestic policy proposals.  For the record, I also think she's in the right headspace on the issue of health care mandates, although if you get into the economic nitty-gritty, I think there are decent arguments that implementing mandates without overhauling privatized medical insurance might not have the desired effects in terms of passing savings along to consumers.

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Thu Apr 24, 2008 at 01:09 AM PDT

Bayh nets Obama 31 New Superdelegates

by poblano

Apologies if this has been blogged already, but I just noticed that Evan Bayh, Clinton surrogate extraordinaire, has declared that Superdelegates should follow the will of their constituents.

The following item is from yesterday's Washington Post:

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Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 04:16 PM PDT

Clinton's Popular Vote Math

by poblano

Let's start by looking at the state of the popular vote, since those are the only metrics that Hillary Clinton has any realistic shot of winning.

Below is a table of the remaining primaries, and Clinton's projected margin of victory (or defeat) in each of them. The margins come from a straight, unweighted average of all polls that were released in April. I cheated in Montana, which doesn't have any polls, and plugged in a +10 for Obama.

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