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Fri Sep 26, 2008 at 09:08 AM PDT

Bailout in Deep Do-do

by recentdemocrat

The House Republicans may have saved Nancy Pelosi and the rest of the Democratic leadership from a huge mistake. The Republicans' last minute proposal which derailed the talks on Thursday, only served to highlight the deep fractures the Paulson plan is creating across all the power structures.
Here's a snippet from Laura Rozen of War and Piece and Mother Jones:

As my Hill friend said yesterday, the bailout seems to be in more trouble than some earlier reports indicated. My two cent summary of his take, which is worth reading, was that there is a seriously underestimated gap between the White House and Congressional leadership on one side, and the Congressional rank and file on the other; and that the media reports suggesting a deal was imminent by and large were being informed by the former, who are more committed to a quick deal; while the Congressional rank and file is more informed by being overwhelmed with thousands of calls from screaming constituents who are truly outraged over the prospect of a bailout of Wall Street fat cats. Vulnerable incumbents may not feel they can vote for anything resembling a bailout until after the election.

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Interesting article in the Sunday WaPo. Steve Rosenthal, the CEO of America Coming Together (ACT), and former political director of the AFL-CIO, wrote a piece analyzing Bush's victory in Ohio. The paragraph  that caught my eye was this little nugget:
Second myth: The Bush campaign won by mobilizing GOP strongholds and suppressing turnout in Democratic areas.

Reality: Turnout in Democratic-leaning counties in Ohio was up 8.7 percent while turnout in Republican-leaning counties was up slightly less, at 6.3 percent. John Kerry bested Bush in Cuyahoga County (home of Cleveland) by 218,000 votes -- an increase of 42,497 over Gore's 2000 effort. In Stark County (Canton) -- a bellwether lost by Gore -- Kerry won by 4,354.

   The rest of the article looks at various suppositions why Bush won and does a fairly credible job of debunking. The article is here.

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Sat Nov 13, 2004 at 07:55 PM PST

The Dummy's Guide to EXIT polls

by recentdemocrat

   There seems an inordinate amount of confusion here at dKos in claims and counter-claims of what the Exit polls show. This diary is my attempt to give an overview of exit polling. What it can be used for, what it shouldn't be used for and  what it really really means. By way of disclaimer I am not associated with polling or statistics in any way shape or form  Just an ordinary Kossack who wanted to understand a topic a little better
More below the fold.
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I don't like to post short diaires, but I know lots of Kossacks are tracking voting irregularities. Couldn't find any central repository in the Kosopedia and none of the current threads seem to be collecting links.
   I found the story on http://rawstory.com. The link to WOWT TV Omaha web site is here.
Sarpy County election officials are trying to figure out how they ended up with more votes than voters in the general election. As many as 10,000 extra votes have been tallied and candidates are still waiting for corrected totals.

Johnny Boykin lost his bid to be on the Papillion City Council. The difference between victory and defeat in the race was 127 votes.

Boykin says, "When I went in to work the next day and saw that 3,342 people had shown up to vote in our war, I thought something's not right

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   Would one of you that is collecting stuff like this make sure it gets to the appropriate repositories?
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  I came across this story in the NY Observer. It details the short-lived career of Phillip Weiss as a volunteer for Bush/Cheney in Ohio.
With two weeks to go, I volunteered for Kerry in Wisconsin, so with nine days left, I'm volunteering for Bush in Ohio. I show up on Sunday at a suburban headquarters out side Cincinnati, and they put me to work on the phone bank, confirming volunteers who've signed up for the final weekend.

Everyone seems a little on edge. People keep coming in to get lawn signs, and the lady who runs the office, Crunch Reyna, tells them that if the signs get stolen, they are to call the police, report the crime. A farmer comes in and talks about the Bush office in Cincinnati being bombed.

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   Apologies to all for this short diary entry. I posted this in the open thread, but a fellow Kossack suggested it was important enough to do a diary so that it gets wider exposure. If you haven't voted yet, by all means go here and verify that your polling place hasn't moved.

Thanks to Kevin Drum  at the Washington Monthly for spotlighting this websight. All you need to do is plug in your street address and Zip and it will give you the location of your local polling station and other great info re your state's voting rights. The location is here, run by People for the American Way. Please help get the word out to all the folks doing GOTV.

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One of the remarkable things about the early BushCo had been the absence of negative leaks. Unlike prior administrations, early on there seemed to be very little talk that would portray the administration in a bad light. The few people who did go on the record ( John Dilulio, Paul O'Neill, Joe Wilson) were viciously savaged as an object lesson. The political appointees and the professional staff with the exception of the big boys like Rumsfeld, Cheney, Powell, were remarkably quiet . Loyalty  and fear were the guiding principles.
   Then came Iraq and the first cracks in the `wall of silence'. At first, it was confined to the feuding between the White House, and the Pentagon versus the professionals at the CIA. A few stories by Knight Ridder suggesting that analysts were being pressured to follow the WH line. Slowly, as the magnitude of the Iraq failure became evident, the State department started leaking little nuggets  such as their analysis of the infamous aluminum tubes, or the fact that the war planners wouldn`t even let Jay Garner and his team use the State department planning on reconstruction.
   The Chalabi leaks raised the ante to the point the SCLM began to pay attention. Several articles were written alluding to the civil war between the Pentagon/ Neocons against the intelligence agencies/ State Dept. Newsweek article here.  Kerry looked to have a shot at winning, Bush's poll numbers were slipping, so those looking for revenge turned up the heat
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   This topic has been an undercurrent on the diary boards here at Kos since the vaccine shortage was announced. There was a diary here titled Flu vaccine shortage will kill more than 9/11. Here's the link to a diary I wrote last week. There was a diary last night (that I can't find, unfortunately) commenting on how Kerry should have answered during the debate.
   The newspapers and TV stations are paying attention. The LA times had this story on the front page of the local section yesterday here. They also had a front page article, above the fold, here detailing the Justice Dept. probe. More stories today, front page of the NY Times above the fold here.  
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Bill Janklow, a  4 term governor of South Dakota and until his recent resignation, the only representative (R) from the state, gave a phone interview with AP concerning the recent  voter fraud that involved Thune's nephew.
"SIOUX FALLS, S.D. (AP) -- Former GOP Rep. Bill Janklow, who has been out of the spotlight since serving time for a manslaughter conviction this year, lashed out Tuesday at a Republican get-out-the-vote operation that he accused of breaking election rules.

``These people are cheating,'' he said in a telephone interview with The Associated Press. ``When you tamper with it, you cheat the system. And cheating in elections is the worst form of cancer because it's uncontrollable.''

The story is here
   Let's see. There's the breaking Nevada voter fraud, the Florida "felon" list, South Dakota. BushCo has been very busy. Wonder what other slimy operations will be exposed before Nov.2?

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Fri Oct 08, 2004 at 11:17 AM PDT

Flu fears and the election

by recentdemocrat

 The flu vaccine shortage has people really freaked and angry. The SCLM is giving more and more play to it.  The LA times has an op-ed here  today. Letters to the editor are harping on the hypocrisy of the FDA saying  they're going to IMPORT flu vaccine from Canada, (but it's unsafe to import other drugs???), outsourcing  our health care (half of the supply is manufactured in the UK where the British authorities shut down the plant causing the shortage.) CBS News had a big report last night. Google has over 1300 stories this morning dealing with some aspect of it.
   I live in the Palm Springs California area. Lots and lots of seniors and they are PO'd over this. I wonder if this can't be used in an LTE campaign as one more example of BushCo mishandling the nation's health needs?
   I know that the past week has provided us with an embarrassment of riches to use against Bush. But this one seems to have some strong resonance with people, at least the ones out here. Conversations at the checkout line inevitably start with "did you get your shot yet"?  Friends of mine that live in 55+ parks told me that all anyone in talking about in the clubhouses is getting their shot. Americans are scared over this, and really annoyed that the government let this happen .
   I was wondering if my fellow Kossacks  have noticed if people are talking about this in their everyday encounters and if so, is there anyway to leverage it as one more indication  of Bushco's horrible failure?
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Recently, several fellow Kossacks have written about the impending Jobs report. While the diaries were excellent, some of the posted queries seemed to be struggling with what exactly the reports mean.  I put this little bit that I think I know together to see if I could us all get on the same page. This is my first diary even `tho I've been around for a while, lurking and slowly getting my feet wet posting.

Every month the BLS ESTIMATES job creation for the previous month ( published in the Establishment Survey). This is a PRELIMINARY number and subject to revision in the following two months.

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