On January 20th we are under existential threat.
Joe Biden stated that the US’ “obligation to NATO is a sacred trust” the commitment to common defense is an absolute. www.cnn.com/…
This really, really matters. As long as Russia is of the belief that NATO is intact they will not attack, 50 years of cold war has shown that. The old USSR with Warsaw Pact Nations added in had rough military parity with NATO (in some areas they had better and more forces (Heavy Armor being one) in other areas they were weaker (Navy, Air force) yet they did not attack because they knew what the response would be. The present Russian military is far weaker a population of only 130 million an economy that presently does not generate significant GDP and a military that is outdated, though rapidly modernizing. Russia still has over 2800 nuclear warheads ready to rumble. So why would Russia attack a NATO force that includes the US military (greater in number and equipment by a factor of 5 alone), Germany, UK, France Poland, Turkey, Italy and 20 other European countries?
I have attempted to outline my concerns below:
NATO provides all member states with common defense, under Article 5
Nato Article 5
“The Parties agree that an armed attack against one or more of them in Europe or North America shall be considered an attack against them all and consequently they agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of them, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defense recognized by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist the Party or Parties so attacked by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the other Parties, such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Any such armed attack and all measures taken as a result thereof shall immediately be reported to the Security Council. Such measures shall be terminated when the Security Council has taken the measures necessary to restore and maintain international peace and security .”
Collectively NATO outnumbers Russia in terms of Troops, Tanks, Aircraft, Ships, Missiles and in every measure with the exception of Nuclear weapons. Any Attack by Russia on any NATO member followed by an Article 5 response would result in a major defeat for Russia right up to the point where Russia either surrenders or uses its Nukes as a last desperate move, then everyone looses (it is called MAD for a reason).
On the basis of an assured loss in conventional war followed by annihilation in a nuclear exchange why would Russia attack anyone in NATO?
Russia still looks to the Baltic states as part of their natural territory, however, Lithuania, Estonia, and Latvia are NATO members. One of the excuses for the annexing of Crimea and the present action in the Eastern Ukraine has been the “protection” of ethnic Russian populations, indeed in Crimea there is a certain historical and ethnic logic to this. Unfortunately the Baltic states also have large ethnic Russian populations. 30 percent of Estonians are Ethnic Russians, in Latvia its 26 percent Russian with an extra 4 percent Belarusian, in Lithuania its less than 10 percent.
Russia also has a large naval base on the Baltic sea in Kaliningrad, this is the base for their fleet and an enclave with up to 100,000 troops but is physically separated from the rest of Russia by Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia. Without Kaliningrad Russia would no longer have year round access to the Baltic, its navy would be severely curtailed and St. Petersburg would be under considerably greater strategic threat. Whilst not publicly stated Putin wants to have Kaliningrad reunited with the rest of Russia, presently it is surrounded by NATO countries and is in a precarious position, they are also not particularly happy having NATO sitting on their doorstep with no buffer zone.
Putin is trying to make Russia great again, that means pushing the borders west and regaining control over some of those territories lost when the USSR collapsed.
As long as NATO is unified and supported this will not happen, however, as soon as Putin is of the belief (founded or otherwise) that NATO will not respond to an attack on any member under Article 5 then the likelihood of an attack increases exponentially. Whilst the present Russian military is no match for NATO especially a NATO back by the US, they would roll over Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania in a weekend.
I once fought a war in the South Atlantic because the wrong diplomatic signals were sent, or perhaps the person viewing the signals simply misunderstood a confused message. Presently Donald Trump is sending a very mixed signal. Confusion results in uncertainly and the possibility of an opportunist taking a chance goes way up. We want Putin and his associates to be in no doubt that should any member of NATO be attacked there would be an immediate Article 5 response, as long as there is no doubt there will be no aggressive act on the part of Russia, any doubt increases the risk of WW3 starting by accident. From January 20th the US’ strategic position is unclear, that lack of clarity is why Donald is dangerous. Putin right now is probably looking in disbelief at how easy it has been to gain a major strategic victory, if NATO is not solid his options are wide open, Estonia in particular could become a vassal state without the need for military action if there is no NATO.