Pew is TIED UP with REGISTERED, Ahead only in LIKELY

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Monday October 08, 2012 · 2:48 PM PDT

2012/10/08 · 14:48

Guys, take a breath.

All day, we’ve been seeing the bump begin to subside, and some polls trending back to O (Gallup 7-day).

Pew has the race TIED UP at 46 each for REGISTERED VOTERS. The purported 4 point lead is after their likely voter screen.

We already have indications that what Romney’s debate performance did was rev up his base. My take is that the even race for registereds is the top of the bump, covering 4 days after the debate. A likely voter screen is a judgement call as to “likely.”

Watch the state polls.

JUST IN: P.E.C. Predicts 74% Chance of Dem Takeover of House

CaptainAmerica

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Thursday September 20, 2012 · 8:19 AM PDT

2012/09/20 · 08:19

Apologies for a short diary, but the Princeton Election Consortium (P.E.C.) has just posted its update on the House:

Conditions through August showed a 2% lead on the generic Congressional ballot for Democrats. As of September 20th, in the wake of the Democratic convention, the lead has widened to 4.0 +/- 2.0%. Although it has yet to be fully appreciated by political pundits, this translates to a likely November loss of the House of Representatives by Republicans. The probability of a Democratic takeover is currently 74% with a median majority of 16 seats. This is a knife-edge situation, and the picture may well change again over the coming six weeks.

Sam Wang of the P.E.C. nailed the 2004 and 2008 elections, nearly exactly both times with better accuracy than even Saint Nate.

Our own StephenCLE, in his comprehensive Monday analyses of individual races, last Monday showed a net of 17 Dem seats, but it's increasing by 3-4 every week.

Nothing is done until it's done, so we have to work hard to beat the Rethugs, but the House is now in sight!

Princeton Election Consortium Predicts 69% Probability Dems Take House!!!

CaptainAmerica

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Thursday August 30, 2012 · 10:47 AM PDT

2012/08/30 · 10:47

Princeton Election Consortium, run by Prof. Sam Wang, was exactly right in 2008 in Electoral College votes--better even than Saint Nate. He also named the winner in 2004, although a few electoral votes off.

As of just now, he's predicting the Dems have a 69% chance of winning back the House. Knife's edge, and could tilt either way, but he's the first credible source I've seen that's predicting Pelosi will again be speaker.

Murphy Ahead of McMahon in PPP!

CaptainAmerica

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Wednesday August 29, 2012 · 8:11 AM PDT

2012/08/29 · 08:11

Banish the gloom from the recent Q poll that showed McMahon 3% ahead of Murphy.

New PPP poll, which I trust more, shows Murphy 4 points ahead!

Whew. Now, Chris, improve the margin so I can go back to worrying about Elizabeth Warren and Tammy Baldwin.

Send this around - "One Term More" Les Mis music video for Obama

CaptainAmerica

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Wednesday August 15, 2012 · 5:22 PM PDT

2012/08/15 · 17:22

You have to see this. And send it everywhere:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/...

WHERE THE HELL IS THE MEDICARE COUNTER-ATTACK?

CaptainAmerica

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Wednesday August 15, 2012 · 5:45 AM PDT

2012/08/15 · 05:45

I have faith in Axelrod, Plouffe, Messina...really...but the Obama-cut-$716 billion from Medicare lie is taking hold...in classic Rethug fashion, they are repeating that lie whenever asked about Medicare, and in a new TV ad.

Yes, Obama has released a soft TV ad with seniors talking about Ryan's Medicare plan, and some Web ads...but where are the ads/speeches saying that the $716B is a lie?

Please tell me they know it will stick, as apparently it did in the 2010 elections when Obama said nothing about it.

Obama, c'mon! Fight back on this!

We are the 99%. We are done being victims. Take back the 99%.

CaptainAmerica

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Tuesday October 04, 2011 · 8:22 AM PDT

2011/10/04 · 08:22

The Occupy movement, especially the epicenter on Wall Street, cannot survive the winter. Sub-freezing temperatures in NYC and elsewhere will reduce the demos to a handful, the media will get bored, and they will say that it's over.

The movement must evolve, and soon. But it must keep the messaging clear, simple, and powerful. Forget multiple demands. I propose there is only one demand, one identity statement, and one purpose.

The identity: We are the 99%.
The purpose: We are done being victims.
The demand: Take back the 99%.

The first one is already being used, and it's terrific. Keep the focus on reclaiming on the 99%, keep it simple, and all else -- more taxes on financial deals, single payer, an end to foreclosures, whatever -- are details. The Tea Party knows that. Keep it populist, but we lose if we get into the policy weeds in our top-level messaging, or, alternatively, float too high in the clouds.

Repeat this aloud, and see if it works as a media bite, as a chant, as rallying slogans. It does for me:

We are the 99%.
We are done being victims.
Take back the 99%.

Not "Cut and Run" But "Change the Course"

CaptainAmerica

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Thursday June 22, 2006 · 11:54 AM PDT

2006/06/22 · 11:54

Those howls of anguish that you may have heard from the East Coast yesterday were me...watching yet another Democratic Senator struggle on TV with countering the incessant "Cut and Run."

What is the problem with these guys? Kerry at least tried "Lie and Die," but it isn't sticking...in part because it doesn't say what we want to do.

As much as I can't believe it, the Rethugs will repeat "Cut and Run" a million times, as they did during the campaign, and it will probably work, because the Dems don't appear to understand the power of taglines in the age of soundbites.

Yes, unbelieveable, but true.

CaptainAmerica

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Wednesday November 09, 2005 · 2:55 PM PST

2005/11/09 · 14:55

The hard work of the election behind us, it's time for some play...and what better to toy with, than George W. himself?

Here are two online toys that certainly gave me some catharsis!

"Give Bush a Brain!" from eGreetings, an e-card site

"Freefall" on PingRay, an "eGuide to Net's best entertainment"

Enjoy!

Our "brand" must be "Fighting Democrats"

CaptainAmerica

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Saturday November 05, 2005 · 6:13 AM PST

2005/11/05 · 06:13

As Rove and company try to "re-launch" Bush, trying to "re-brand" him as another "comeback kid"--as a variety of news reports on TV and online have recently suggested--it is vital that Dems get their own branding act together.

Yesterday, on MSNBC's Countdown, it was suggested by a commentator that Rove may try to bring back "compassionate conservatism." Obviously, this was a trial balloon to do just that.

Except for Clinton, Dems continually lose the brand wars, in large part because there needs to be a 2- or 3-word phrase that sums up what we are, that anyone can remember. The only phrase that works has been mentioned again and again here: "Fighting Democrats." More below. Read More

Dean Is Becoming a Liability

CaptainAmerica

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Wednesday June 08, 2005 · 4:44 PM PDT

2005/06/08 · 16:44

Just watched the network news on ABC, CBS, NBC...plus MSNBC and Fox...and Dean is becoming the target for his two most recent comments (Repugs being white and Christian party; they don't work for a living.)

Of course, the first is largely true, although the handful of Jews and blacks and Hispanics in the Repug camp will make it seem false; and the second is true of the upper class segment of the Repugs...but certainly not true of blue-collar workers who have voted Repug...

I completely and enthusiastically support the move for Dems to grow a spine...Kerry, Shrum and others were wimps without clear, repeating sound bites...and I praise Dean for his efforts to bolster the state parties and his passion...

But if he keeps this up, I guarantee he will become the target, the story, come next November...Rove and others are already writing the ads, I'm sure...the Repubs are sinking, and the only way for them to save themselves is...find another target. Sorry to announce this but...Dean may have to go.

I want to win.

What has been overlooked in Nuke Option coverage

CaptainAmerica

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Tuesday May 24, 2005 · 8:00 AM PDT

2005/05/24 · 08:00

A major fact has been overlooked in the MSM and blog coverage of the Nuclear Option...or at least I haven't seen it mentioned:

A 51-vote majority of Senators, especially Republican Senators, represent a minority of American voters...eg, states like Montana, Wyoming, Utah, etc...

While a filibuster would require 60 Senators ...and this is more likely to be closer to a majority of American voters.

I find this the strongest argument of all.

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