Global Warming, the Winter Wiggle, and Short-term Climate Variation

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Friday March 21, 2008 · 11:23 AM PDT

2008/03/21 · 11:23

You can find more posts on climate change science, policy, and news on Climate 411.

NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center recently announced that this past winter was the coolest since 2001, for the U.S. and the globe. Some people say that recent cooler temperatures mean that global warming has stopped. I've said it before, and I'll say it again: A single season can’t determine a long-term trend any more than a single month can.

However, the recent "cooler temperatures" offer a great opportunity to talk about short-term, natural climate variation. The long-term trend is clear – temperatures are going up because of increasing levels of greenhouse gases – but there will always be bumps and wiggles along the way. This past winter is one of those wiggles. What caused it, and how well do scientists understand these sorts of short-term changes?

ClimateLurker

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Wednesday February 27, 2008 · 10:15 AM PST

2008/02/27 · 10:15

You can find more posts on climate change science, policy, and news on Climate 411.

According to the scientific groups that track global temperature, January 2008 was the coldest month in several years.

Is it true, as DailyTech concludes (in a post picked up by the DrudgeReport), that January's cold "wipes out a century of warming"? Has global warming stopped?

ClimateLurker

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Monday February 25, 2008 · 9:56 AM PST

2008/02/25 · 09:56

You can find more posts on climate change science, policy, and news on Climate 411.

Climate change science is, well, science, so it can get pretty technical.

How much warming have we had, and how much more can we expect? How much global warming pollution is in the air right now, and how long will it stay there? What do all those funny abbreviations mean?

Follow me over the fold for a handy global warming crib sheet.

ClimateLurker

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Wednesday February 13, 2008 · 10:57 AM PST

2008/02/13 · 10:57

You can find more posts on climate change science, policy, and news on Climate 411.

Scientists have identified many systems that will be affected by global warming. They have also warned that there may be "tipping points" that trigger large changes. Probably the best known example is that the Greenland Ice Sheet could begin a slow but irreversible meltdown if global temperature passes (and remains above) a certain threshold.

Last week, scientists published a paper that expands on the concept of tipping points. It highlights the future impacts that are most policy-relevant and summarizes what we know about them.

What’s on the list, and how do experts rank the threats?

ClimateLurker

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Monday February 04, 2008 · 10:22 AM PST

2008/02/04 · 10:22

You can find more posts on climate change science, policy, and news on Climate411.

A recent study raised the possibility that global warming could decrease the number of hurricanes hitting the U.S.

On Thursday, Nature published a paper showing that local sea surface temperature has a strong influence on the frequency and intensity of Atlantic hurricanes -- in fact ocean warming accounted for about 40 percent of the increase in hurricane activity that has occurred since 1996.

Confused? That's understandable, given the complex nature of this issue (not to mention how it's covered by the press). What does the new study show, and how does it relate to earlier research? What does it say about global warming?

ClimateLurker

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Monday January 28, 2008 · 8:40 AM PST

2008/01/28 · 08:40

Also blogging at Climate411

Last Wednesday, scientists published a study about global warming and hurricanes in the U.S. The authors report that warming could be associated with a "downward trend in U.S. landfalling hurricanes".

In its coverage of the study, the Miami Herald concluded that "global warming actually is diminishing the number of hurricanes that strike Florida and the rest of the United States -- and the phenomenon is likely to continue".

That downward trend should be reassuring, right? Actually - surprise! -- the science is more complicated than that. This study doesn’t mean that we can ignore global warming’s effects on hurricanes. Follow me over the fold for a look at what the paper actually says.

ClimateLurker

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Thursday January 24, 2008 · 12:18 PM PST

2008/01/24 · 12:18

Also blogging at Climate411.

A recent paper in Nature Geoscience reported large increases in ice loss from West Antarctica over the past 10 years. It’s a sobering result that’s in line with earlier, independent studies.

This paper was covered by a Kossack who noted that skeptics often claim that "Antarctic ice is increasing, not decreasing".

Today I thought I'd explore the science behind that claim: why do some people say that Antarctic ice is growing?

ClimateLurker

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Thursday December 20, 2007 · 9:31 AM PST

2007/12/20 · 09:31

All year long my colleagues and I have been monitoring developments in climate science, and posting about the important new developments on Climate411 and DailyKos. I thought now would be a good time to look back over 2007 and summarize what we've learned.

Choosing just ten stories was difficult because, thanks to the fast pace of climate change and climate research, there were a lot of studies to sift through. Some got a lot of attention, others not as much, but all are noteworthy. Here are ten I'd like to highlight.

ClimateLurker

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Monday December 03, 2007 · 11:09 AM PST

2007/12/03 · 11:09

Also posted on Climate411.

There are lots of reasons for passing good climate legislation as soon as possible. One reason that adds urgency but gets little attention is this: even if we could stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations at today’s levels, some global temperature increase is already locked into the system. This is sometimes called the climate system's "warming commitment" or the "warming in the pipeline".

What’s behind this phenomenon? The short answer is: water, water everywhere.

ClimateLurker

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Friday November 09, 2007 · 9:40 AM PST

2007/11/09 · 09:40

My colleague Mary Kelly posted this on Climate411 yesterday. I'm posting it here because it's great to identify as many areas as possible where addressing one environmental concern has benefits for another.

We have a climate problem, and we also have a drinking water problem in some parts of the country.

These two problems are related, and the link goes both ways. Yes, global warming can impact rainfall, but that's not all. The water supply sector uses large amounts of energy to transport, treat, and deliver water. On the flip side, vast quantities of water are required to generate power.

ClimateLurker

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Wednesday October 24, 2007 · 12:15 PM PDT

2007/10/24 · 12:15

I know that most readers here don't need to be convinced that we need to start reducing greenhouse gas emissions ASAP. But perhaps you'd like to be armed with a few facts for discussing this issue with others. Hence this diary. It first appeared on Climate411.

We're already seeing environmental changes from global warming, and some key ones are occurring more quickly than scientists expected. Consequently, many experts from diverse disciplines are uncomfortable with the slow pace of governments in addressing this issue. The growing sense of urgency arises from two concerns:

1) Earth's climate system may be rapidly approaching a point of no return where large, irreversible and destructive changes, like the gradual disintegration of an ice sheet, become inevitable.

2) To achieve any given temperature goal, the longer we delay action, the steeper emissions reductions will need to be. It's easier to cut emissions gradually than it is to slash them drastically.

ClimateLurker

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Tuesday October 23, 2007 · 11:37 AM PDT

2007/10/23 · 11:37

Also posted at Climate411.

Sunday's New York Times Magazine had an article aptly titled "The Future is Drying Up", about the threats that climate change and booming populations pose to precious water resources in western states. Usually when we think of water and climate change we think of rising sea levels, but climate change is also causing drops in fresh water supplies.

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Global Warming, the Winter Wiggle, and Short-term Climate Variation

Did Global Warming Stop in January?

Global Warming Crib Sheet

Global Warming: What are the Biggest Threats?

Global Warming and Hurricanes: What's the Latest?

Will Global Warming Protect the U.S. From Hurricanes?

Antarctic Ice: Growing or Shrinking?

Global Warming Science 2007: A Review

The Global Warming in the Pipeline

Saving Energy by Saving Water - and Vice Versa

Why We Need to Cut Emissions as Soon as Possible

Global Warming and Water in the Western U.S.