I enjoy and use the The Green Papers website to keep up to date with the pledged delegate count.
TGP uses official, unofficial and estimated data and they constantly update their results. I used TGP in 2016 and found it to be quite accurate.
As of this diary’s posting—TGP has Joe Biden with a +72 delegate lead, after his incredible showing on Super Tuesday. Keep in mind—these numbers will shift some as the final results from CA and other states trickle in. Biden will most likely end up with a 50 to 80 delegate lead after all of Super Tuesday’s votes are counted.
Current TGP delegate totals per candidate:
- Biden: 656
- Sanders: 584
- Bloomberg: 75
- Warren: 66
- Buttigieg: 27
- Klobuchar: 7
- Gabbard: 2
Now you’re probably thinking, a 72 delegate lead isn’t that much of a lead, but it is in a system that allocates delegates proportionally.
As an example, on March 10th there will be 365 delegates up for grabs in 6 states—MI, MO, WA, ID, MS, ND and Democrats Abroad. From where we stand now, and just as an extreme example—Bernie Sanders would have to win 60% of the total of those 365 delegates just to tie Biden’s current lead. That isn’t realistic in a proportional system, but it gives you a sense of how daunting the task is to close the gap of a 72 delegate lead.
I’m not saying that Sanders couldn’t significantly cut into Biden’s lead over time. He very well could do that if there were a seismic shift in the race—but after March 10th you have states coming up like AZ, FL, IL, OH, GA, PA. These will be tough states for Sanders. Specifically—Florida could end up being a big haul for Biden. As the race stands at this moment—with momentum on Biden’s side, I think he’s well positioned to win the nomination.
Some campaign news.
Senator Kyrsten Sinema endorsed Joe. This is a key endorsement for the upcoming AZ primary.
Another union endorses Joe.
OPCMIA is a member union of the AFL-CIO.
Joe responds to Sanders saying “the establishment” is trying to defeat him. Strong response here.
And finally— #Joementum is very cool.