I was flipping around looking for early exit poll and Fox News(Uhh I know) had an early breakdown of the exit polls coming out of VA. From my back of the envelope calculations, Obama is over performing almost all the key variables I was looking at. More surprising, Obama beats Clinton among voters 65+. This is big news.
My early benchmark is from Survey USA, their turnout projection was very accurate according to early exit poll. Yet, Survey USA had Obama and Clinton essentially tied among voters 65+ so with that I can say with 95% confidence Obama will win VA by a margin greater than 20%. My predictions is he will win by 62% to 36%.
A pretty similar story is developping out of Maryland where AA make up a little more than 1/3 of the voters. I have Maryland down for 63% for Obama and 32% for Hillary with 60% confidence.
Ps. New voters in VA make up 35% that's an astounding number and that should bode well for Obama.