Latest CBS poll reveals a dead heat - so much for the "surge"

KJS

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Monday October 18, 2004 · 7:24 PM PDT

2004/10/18 · 19:24

The latest CBS poll has Bush and Kerry in a statistical dead heat among "likely" voters, (47% to 45%) and has them exactly tied among registered voters, with 45% each. Tellingly, in a two-way race among "likely" voters, Kerry picks up 1% with Nader gone.

These results are consistent with the latest Zogby and Rasmussen polls which also show the race tied, and which also show Bush getting well under 50%.

Also, of the registered voters polled, 57% think the country is on the wrong track, and only 39% think it's on the right track.

What might be most troubling in this poll for Bush are his low approval ratings, which the CBS poll found were as follows:

Overall: Approve = 44%; Disapprove = 48%

Foreign policy: Approve = 41%;Disapprove = 54%

Economy: Approve = 42%; Disapprove = 53%

Iraq: Approve = 42%; Disapprove = 54%

Terrorism: Approve = 55%; Disapprove = 38%

And on the question of "WHOSE INTERESTS WILL THE CANDIDATE PROTECT?", registered voters polled thought the following:

Kerry: Ordinary Americans = 65%; Large corporations = 21%

Bush: Ordinary Americans = 33%; Large corporations = 59%

These numbers, along with the Zogby and Rasmussen numbers, put Bush deep in danger zone territory for an incumbent,(as do the Gallup numbers if you adjust for the fact that their polling pool had about 3% more Republicans and 4% less Democrats than one would expect among voters who turn out on 11/2).

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