The Republicans in the Senate are in a weak position on the SCOTUS nomination and everyone knows it. Senator Harry Reid has been dispensing truth again:
"I first of all think that they’re going to cave in. I think the president’s going to give us a nominee that’s a good one, and I think they’re going to have to hold hearings and have a vote," Reid said at a Democratic caucus event in Reno, Nev.
The Senate Republicans as a body will at some point internalize the fact that they are hanging their vulnerable members, and thus their majority, out to dry by obstructing for a year. There will be incredible pressure from people who have something to lose, i.e., committee chairmanships, to cave and get this whole matter over with. The pressure will be immense as Donald Trump inches ever closer to the GOP nomination in the next month and everyone realizes that a Republican is not going to occupy the White House next January. Furthermore, the longer that this whole thing lasts, the less time there is to distract the GOP base and crank up the outrage machine with a more favorable issue before the fall election in an attempt to at least salvage the Senate majority. It behooves the caucus to cave and cave quickly.
Some of the GOP caucus, at least, can do basic math in this first week of their new state of perdition. Unfortunately, doing math allows a small ray of reality into the fever-dream that normally constitutes Republican political strategy. The result is a caucus that is quickly dissolving into ridiculousness.
Already there are cracks showing. Let’s count the positions in the caucus.
#1:
“I think we fall into the trap, if we just simply say sight unseen — we fall into the trap of being obstructionist,” [Senator Tillis] said in comments first noted by Think Progress, a left-leaning website.
Tillis added that he would not support a liberal nominee, and argued that Republicans should use “every device available” to block someone who is “in the mold of President Obama’s vision for America.”
#2:
“I would wait until the nominee is made before I would make any decisions. ... In other words, take it a step at a time,” [Senator Grassley] told reporters, according to Radio Iowa.
#3:
One vulnerable Senate Republican incumbent, Mark Kirk of Illinois, has declined to say whether he will vote to filibuster the Supreme Court nominee.
So far, Kirk has only urged his colleagues to “take time to honor his life before the inevitable debate erupts.” His Democratic challenger, Rep. Tammy Duckworth (Ill.), has urged him to reject McConnell’s “obstructionist and unconstitutional gambit.”
It doesn’t get much worse than having a vulnerable member just plain hide from public inquiry. Other members stand to lose more than just a single SCOTUS vote, just as an aside.
A flare-up in partisanship also risks derailing bipartisan legislation, such as a bill to combat opioid abuse — a top priority for vulnerable Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.).
Dante Scala, an associate professor of political science at the University of New Hampshire, said the fight over Scalia could hurt Ayotte with independent voters.
“Perhaps they like Ayotte because she’s taken less than conservative positions on some issues. That’s the group that she risks,” he said.
And then there’s ridiculousness like this. #4:
Sen. Ron Johnson plays a mean game of Twister.
Right hand red! “Let’s let the American people decide and let the next president nominate.”
Left foot blue! “I never said that we shouldn’t vote.”
Left hand yellow! “I would also say that doing nothing is an action.”
Right foot green! “By the time I would actually take the vote if it comes to that I’ll take a vote.”
#5 and #6:
Sen. Orrin Hatch of Utah, another member of that committee, said he would support a decision not to hold hearings on anybody nominated by President Obama, but also said he doesn’t support a filibuster, which yet another member of the panel, Sen. Ted Cruz of Texas, has threatened.
We are at that point in the process where the caucus is so screwed up, the dumb ones are making no sense (Johnson) and the less dumb ones with more seniority are hiding behind strategies that make no sense (Hatch — seriously, what?).
Others are basically giving up the ghost. #7:
"The chances of approving a new nominee are slim, but Nevadans should have a voice in the process. That’s why I encourage the President to use this opportunity to put the will of the people ahead of advancing a liberal agenda on the nation’s highest court," [Senator] Heller said on Wednesday in his statement.
Read more: www.politico.com/...
Not only giving up the ghost, but actually calling for hearings. #8 and #9:
Texas Sen. John Cornyn, the No. 2 Republican in the Senate, did not rule out a committee hearing on Obama's forthcoming nominee to replace the late Justice Antonin Scalia. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, went a step further and said she'd support such a move.
"I do believe that the nominee should get a hearing," Murkowski, who's running for re-election this fall, told reporters in Juneau, Alaska. "The question then becomes, we have a hearing on a nominee. But that doesn't necessarily mean that that ends up in a vote.”
And Lindsey Graham is making some actual sense for once (...Kind of). #10:
Before the GOP debate in Greenville, S.C. Saturday night, Sen. Lindsey Graham said the only way President Obama could get a Supreme Court nominee approved by the Senate would be to put forward a consensus choice.
“No one will be appointed who isn’t a consensus choice," Graham said. "Now can the president find someone who 90 percent of us will agree upon? Maybe someone like Orrin Hatch."
...
“Donald Trump’s not a conservative, so I don’t trust him to pick a judge," Graham said. "Everybody else on stage would pick somebody in the same mold, I think. Everybody other than Donald Trump I would have confidence would pick a Supreme Court justice nominee that I would vote for. Here’s the problem: I don’t think Ted Cruz or Donald Trump can win an election. I don’t think Ted Cruz has a snowball’s chance in hell of getting 270 electoral votes.
“If we lose the election, Hillary Clinton’s going to pick somebody who I wouldn’t pick. I’m telling every conservative now: don’t expect to lose the election and still get your way.”
Read more: www.politico.com/...
I’m pretty sure that Lindsey Graham making any sense in any political analysis is a sign of the apocalypse.
So, I count at least 10 different messages coming out of the GOP caucus right now going from “do nothing” to “let’s take a vote” to “let’s not even consider it, but if we do, let’s not filibuster it!” It’s hardly a picture of unity.
Already the pressure to have hearings is ratcheting up. If there are hearings, there will have to be a vote. If there is a vote, there will be incredible pressure to confirm a qualified nominee. The actual lay of the land among those Senators who are not currently running for President is becoming ever clearer. President Obama should nominate a qualified jurist post haste, and let the baboon pen in the Republican cloakroom descend into further chaos.