Vox has a new piece out about how the upcoming U.S. Senate race in Ohio where it’s a race between Trumpism without Trump and real Populism. Reading the article, it’s very clear who’s the real populist here:
Helping matters for Brown is Trump’s deep unpopularity nationwide and his relative unpopularity in Brown’s state (this October post by FiveThirtyEight compiling state approval ratings had Trump five points underwater in Ohio).
“It may sound overly simplistic, but Trump being in the White House is the biggest reason why Brown is favored,” (Kyle) Kondik said. “There’s just a frequent midterm drag that hurts the presidential party and helps the non-presidential one, and that’s exacerbated when the president is unpopular.”
Kondik pointed to data that show Senate incumbents in the out-of-power party have won reelection 91 percent of the time since 1914, when popular elections for Senate seats began.
On the other hand, Ohio presents some natural challenges for Brown, even in the favorable national environment. The Ohio Democratic Party has struggled to build a bench in recent years, with Republicans still favored in the governor’s race despite the national headwinds. The midterm electorate is usually older and whiter — and Trump won big here. A Democrat can’t simply coast to victory in Ohio on an anti-Trump wave.
In the eyes of Ohio Democrats, the 2016 election offered two lessons: First, yes, you have to turn out the Democratic base. But you also have to win over some number of independent voters or Republican-leaning voters, people who voted for Barack Obama in 2012 and Donald Trump in 2016. That is just the Buckeye state’s makeup now.
“Sherrod wins here because Ohioans know that he works hard, he cares about them, and he approaches every issue carefully, intelligently, and with an eye on what’s best for working families. That’s more important to Ohioans than any partisan loyalty,” Justin Barasky, Brown’s campaign manager, said. “He’s got an ability to appeal to voters of all stripes, even a Republican who voted for Trump and may disagree with him on health care because they see him fighting against bad trade deals that have cost our state jobs.”
Brown is the kind of Democrat who could still play well with an electorate that is otherwise turning Trump-y. He is seen as populist, with a blue-collar tinge despite his Yale bachelor’s degree. He has real credibility with the progressive grassroots.
“In terms of his record, progressives nationally and in Ohio have always respected Senator Brown. He usually says and does what he thinks is right,” said Murshed Zaheed, the political director at CREDO Action, a leading grassroots group. “Unlike Donald Trump, Senator Brown is a real populist. He has a record of speaking out against the big banks and Wall Street when it matters.”
Brown, as this Washington Post profile documented, wanted a bigger stimulus package in 2009 and he wants to reinstate the Glass-Steagall Act (a popular progressive litmus test). He has opposed free trade agreements, previously serving as one of the foremost Democratic critics, along with Bernie Sanders, of the Obama administration’s plans for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade deal.
He flirted briefly after Trump’s election with working with the new president on renegotiating NAFTA and he praised the decision by the Trump administration to impose tariffs on solar panels and washing machines.
It adds up to a candidate, Kondik said, who should fare better in the white, working-class, exurban parts of the state where support for Democrats fell off precipitously in the 2016 election.
“Brown probably has more appeal in eastern Ohio than Hillary Clinton did,” Kondik explained, “and clawing back voters in Youngstown, Warren, Steubenville, etc. is crucial for a Democrat to win statewide.”
Even Republicans in the state (begrudgingly) respect Brown’s deftness with his populist message.
“He presents himself as this populist in the state. It’s very effective,” one top GOP operative in the state, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about the race, said. “He’ll have this message that’s populist and appeals to the Trump/Bernie voters.”
On the GOP side, the candidates are battling over the true Trumper mantle now that Treasurer Josh Mandel (R. OH) is out of the race:
Enter, Mike Gibbons and Jim Renacci.
Mr. Gibbons, a wealthy Cleveland businessman who has donated heavily to the Republican Party, has been in the race since early last year. He was backed by the state’s biggest and most organized Tea Party group, We the People, from Portage County, and the Franklin County Republican Party.
He was a Donald Trump supporter and has the political benefit of never having run for office before, making him a good vehicle for a campaign aimed at tarring Mr. Brown as a career politician.
He was a definite underdog in the primary against the better-funded and better-known Mr. Mandel. Mr. Mandel had relatively good party support, including Ohio Senator Rob Portman, and had a campaign chairman in every county, including Republican state central committeeman Mark Wagoner in Lucas County and Fulton County GOP Chairman Sandy Barber.
With Mr. Mandel out of the picture, Ohio Republicans have two candidates to choose from without the political baggage being dragged around by Mr. Mandel.
Mr. Renacci was running for governor when Mr. Mandel bailed out. Running for the U.S. Senate was a better fit for Mr. Renacci than governor, considering he’s already been in the U.S. House of Representatives since 2011, but switching because it looked like an easier race made him look like the career politicians he said he deplored.
The Trump political team in Washington obliged and made a big public show of encouraging Mr. Renacci to do his duty to the party and run for the Senate.
Mr. Renacci grew up in western Pennsylvania and made himself wealthy with various businesses in Ohio, including sports teams, a motorcycle dealership, and car dealerships. He also owned a business in the Toledo area at one time — the former Swan Point Care Center, now Addison Heights Health and Rehabilitation Center, on Butz Road in Monclova Township, from 1996 to 2000.
He defeated a Democratic incumbent and Iraq War veteran in 2010 to win his first race for Congress in 2010. Two years later, he defeated U.S. Rep. Betty Sutton (D., Barberton) in a district that had been gerrymandered to benefit a Republican candidate.
Mr. Renacci has been in politics longer than Mr. Gibbons has — 14 years, counting his service on the Wadsworth city council and as Wadsworth mayor.
Both Mr. Gibbons and Mr. Renacci have lots of money, so campaign cash won’t be the deciding factor in the May 8 primary.
Unless Mr. Trump personally steps in to support one candidate or the other, the race for the GOP nomination will come down to who does the better job of campaigning.
All things being equal, Mr. Gibbons has a higher hurdle to get over. Nobody wants to be thought of as a career politician, but by definition career politicians are good at getting elected.
It’s going to be interesting to see how this race plays out. We will need to keep a close eye on it. No matter who emerges from the primary, we have to be ready. Click here to donate and get involved with Brown’s re-election campaign.