Malthus Redux

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Monday February 25, 2008 · 11:31 AM PST

2008/02/25 · 11:31

Thomas Malthus says:

Should success be still incomplete, gigantic inevitable famine stalks in the rear, and with one mighty blow levels the population with the food of the world.

The Malthusian dilemma shows the problem when one resource is increasing linearly while another increases geometrically. The variable increasing at a geometric rate will inevitably overtake the other. That variable is Barack Obama.

The pattern being seen across the country in contest after contest is this phenomenon. More after the fold.

Poll

25 votes Show Results

Will the trend lines of these polls change sufficiently to alter the outcome of the March 4 contests?

25 votes Vote Now!

Will the trend lines of these polls change sufficiently to alter the outcome of the March 4 contests?

7 votes

Not Likely

5 votes

Yes

10 votes

Somewhat Likely

3 votes

Crocodile Tears: Parsing Hillary's Last Momement in the Debate

bollucks

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Friday February 22, 2008 · 11:20 AM PST

2008/02/22 · 11:20

I didn't find a post dealing with specifically with Hillary's last moment in the debate, so here we go.

Her last words:

SEN. CLINTON: And you know, whatever happens, we're going to be fine. You know, we have strong support from our families and our friends. I just hope that we'll be able to say the same thing about the American people, and that's what this election should be about. Thanks. (Cheers, applause.)

And the whole she-bangy-bang after the fold.

Poll

160 votes Show Results

Where Hillary's tears real, and does she know that her campaign is over?

160 votes Vote Now!

Where Hillary's tears real, and does she know that her campaign is over?

They were real and she's going to win!

9 votes

They were fake and she's going to lose.

90 votes

OBAMARAMA

32 votes

Pie.

29 votes

The Math Matters: Obama Wins

bollucks

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Wednesday February 20, 2008 · 12:01 PM PST

2008/02/20 · 12:01

"Before you sell you sell your soul, better do the math." -Ice Cube

Disclaimer: I'm one of those supporters of "democracy," as such I'm counting only the pledged delegates. (i.e. voters)

Wikipediadelegate counts:

Obama: 1,188

Clinton: 1,029

Obama lead = 159

Obama campaign claims 159 lead as well, according to NYT

Delegates in play on March 4:
TX: 193
OH: 141
VT: 15
RI: 21

Total: 370

For Clinton to TIE Obama, she will need 265 of these delegates. Or an astonishing 71% of all pledged delegates on March 4. More math after the fold.

Poll

217 votes Show Results

Is it mathematically possible for Clinton to have more delegates going into the convention?

217 votes Vote Now!

Is it mathematically possible for Clinton to have more delegates going into the convention?

121 votes

Yes

66 votes

Elections, delegates, states, and conventions don't matter

30 votes

Obama Leads National Polls

bollucks

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday February 15, 2008 · 12:21 PM PST

2008/02/15 · 12:21

We've been watching this line trend upward geometrically for months, anticipating the day when Obama's line would cross Clinton's and he would take the national lead.

Today he's done it.

bollucks

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday February 14, 2008 · 2:02 PM PST

2008/02/14 · 14:02

Hillary is doing her best to keep democracy out of the democratic party. Let's not let that happen. Whether you're a democratic, republican, or independent - you should demand that politics represent the express will of the people.

MoveOn.org is trying to collect 200,000 signatures by Friday, and post names from the petition in an ad in USA today.

There's another petition you can sign if you feel like it.

Hillary is realizing that she may not be able to get this thing the way she planned (i.e. by legitimate votes), so she's working other angles:

Pursuing the super delegates.

Seating the delegates from contests which she agreed would not be counted.

After Hillary failed to inspire, she went negative. Now that she is failing to win by the rules, she's cheating.
Speak up. Don't let this happen.

bollucks

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday February 13, 2008 · 11:35 AM PST

2008/02/13 · 11:35

Doing the math on the delegates show Obama winning:

average delegate count from CBS, NBC, and CNN
Obama 1194
Clinton 1122

Average Difference = +72 for obama

Delegates at stake March 4 = 334

Delegates needed for Clinton to TIE Obama = 203

203/334 = 60.8%

This means Clinton has to win by a 20 point margin just to TIE Obama.

Most recent TX poll has clinton ahead 10 points with 10 undecided. Don't expect all 10 of those to go to Clinton, i.e. Obama wins.
Most recent OH poll has clinton ahead 17 points with 2 undecided. 19 still ain't quite 20, i.e. Obama wins.

And whoops, forgot to count the delegate advantage Obama is going to get from Hawaii and Wisconsin, i.e. Obama wins.

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Malthus Redux

Crocodile Tears: Parsing Hillary's Last Momement in the Debate

The Math Matters: Obama Wins

Obama Leads National Polls

Support Democratic Democracy - Sign the Petitions

Obama Wins