Tuesday 6/23 - Primary Night

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday June 22, 2020 · 4:29 AM PDT

2020/06/22 · 04:29

A man casts his ballot in a Democratic presidential primary election at the Journey Church in Kenosha, Wisconsin, on April 7, 2020. - The Wisconsin Supreme Court blocked a last-minute attempt by the governor of the midwestern state to postpone the next day's Democratic presidential primary and other elections because of the coronavirus epidemic and ruled that the vote should go ahead. (Photo by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI / AFP) (Photo by KAMIL KRZACZYNSKI/AFP via Getty Images)

Kentucky (class 6 PM E)

KY-SEN (vs. Mitch McConnell)

Jimmy Ausbrooks (D) - Mental Health Counselor

Charles Booker (D) - State Rep., Nonprofit Group Executive & Attorney

Mike Broihier (D) - Retired USMC Officer, Farmer & Ex-Newspaper Editor

Maggie Jo Hilliard (D) - Attorney & Artist

Amy McGrath (D) - Retired USMC Lt Col, Iraq/Afghan War Veteran & '18 US Rep Nominee

Eric Rothmuller (D) - Marketing Consultant & Sanders Campaign Activists

John Sharpensteen (D) - Maintenance Technician & '10 Hart County Judge/Exec Nominee

Bennie J. Smith (D) - Musician, Event Planner & Truck Driver

Mary Ann Tobin (D) - Ex-State Auditor, Ex-State Rep., Wildlife Sanctuary Owner & Banker

Brad Barron (L) - Businessman & Farmer

KY-4 (vs. Tom Massie)

Shannon Fabert (D) - Business Consultant & Democratic Activist

Alexandra Owensby (D) - Nurse Practitioner

KY-6 (vs. Andy Barr)

Josh Hicks (D) - Attorney, Ex-Police Officer, USMC Veteran & '18 St Rep Nominee

Daniel Kemph (D) - Business Analyst & '18 Candidate

Virginia (closes 7 PM E)

VA-1 (vs. Rob Wittman)

Qasim Rashid (D) - Attorney, Muslim Community Activist & '19 St Sen Nominee

Vangie Williams (D) - Business Consultant, Realtor & '18 Nominee

VA-5 (vs. Bob Good)

RD Huffstetler (D) - Iraq/Afghan War Veteran, Ex-Congressional Aide & '18 Candidate

John Lesinski (D) - Rappahannock County Supervisor, Real Estate Exec. & Retired USMC Colonel

Claire Russo (D) - Iraq War Veteran & International Affairs Fellow

New York (closes 9 PM E)

NY-1 (vs. Lee Zeldin)

Greg Fischer (D) - Business Consultant, Ex-Volunteer Firefighter & Frequent Candidate

Bridget Fleming (D) - Suffolk County Legislator, Ex-Southampton Town Councilwoman & Attorney

Perry Gershon (D) - Lending Corporation Executive & '18 Nominee

NY-2 (open, formerly Pete King)

Jackie Gordon (D/IP/WF) - Babylon Town Councilwoman, Retired Army Officer & Afghan War Veteran

Pat Maher (D) - Attorney, Ex-Nonprofit Group Executive & '14 Nominee

NY-3 (Primary against Tom Suozzi)

Tom Suozzi (D/IP)*

Melanie D'Arrigo (D) - Nonprofit Group Executive & Democratic Activist

Michael Weinstock (D) - Attorney & Volunteer Firefighter

NY-5 (Primary against Greg Meeks)

Gregory Meeks (D)* - (Campaign Site)

Shaniyat Chowdhury (D) - Law School Graduate, USMC Veteran & Democratic Socialist Activist

NY-6 (Primary against Grace Meng)

Grace Meng (D/WF)*- (Campaign Site)

Sandra Choi (D) - Urban Economic Development Professional

Mel Gagarin (D) - Dem Socialist Activist, Ex-Congressional Aide & '09 NYC Council Candidate

NY-7 (Primary against Nydia Velasquez)

Nydia Velazquez (D/WF)* - (Campaign Site)

Paperboy Prince (D) - Web Developer, Rapper & Community Activist

NY-9 (Primary against Yvette Clarke)

Yvette Clarke (D)* - (Campaign Site)

Adem Bunkeddeko (D) - Brooklyn Community Board Member & '18 Candidate

Chaim Deutsch (D) - NYC Councilman, Ex-Council Aide & Jewish Community Activist

Isiah James (D) - Graduate Student, Army Veteran & Democratic Socialist Activist

NY-10 (Primary against Jerrold Nadler)

Jerrold Nadler (D/WF)* - (Campaign Site)

Lindsey Boylan (D) - Ex-NY Depy Economic Development Secretary & Ex-Gubernatorial Aide

Jonathan Herzog (D) - Political Organizer & Yang Campaign Activist

NY-12 (Primary against Carolyn Maloney)

Carolyn Maloney (D)* - (Campaign Site)

Lauren Ashcraft (D) - Banking Project Manager, Ex-Policy Analyst & Progressive Activist

Peter Harrison (D) - Teacher, Affordable Housing Advisor & Democratic Socialist Activist

Suraj Patel (D) - Hotel Executive, Attorney, Ex-Obama White House Aide & '18 Candidate

NY-13 (Primary against Adriano Espaillat)

Adriano Espaillat (D/WF)* - (Campaign Site)

James Felton Keith (D) - Businessman & '18 Candidate

Ramon Rodriguez (D) - Etiquette/Protocol Consultant & Progressive Activist

NY-14 (Primary against Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez)

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D)* - (Campaign Site)

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera (D/SAM) - Ex-TV News Anchor & Author

Badrun Khan (D) - Queens Community Board Member & School Financial Officer

Sam Sloan (D) - Chess Journalist, Ex-Stockbroker, Libertarian Activist & Frequent Candidate

NY-15 (open, formerly Jose Serrano)

Frangell Basora (D) - Ex-District Attorney’s Office Employee & Ex-Congressional Intern

Michael Blake (D) - State Assemblyman & Ex-Obama White House Aide

Ruben Diaz Sr. (D) - NYC Councilman, Ex-State Sen, Evangelical Minister & Army Veteran

Mark Escoffery-Bey (D) - Copy Shop Owner & Frequent Candidate

Samelys Lopez (D/WF) - Ex-Bronx Community Board Member & Progressive Activist

Melissa Mark-Viverito (D) - Ex-NYC Council Speaker & Ex-NYC Councilwoman

Chivona Newsome (D) - Financial Advisor & Black Lives Matters Activist

Julio Pabon (D) - Marketing Executive, Bed/Breakfast Co-Owner & '16 NYC Council Candidate

Tomas Ramos (D) - Nonprofit Group Program Director

Ydanis Rodriguez (D) - NYC Councilman & Educator

Marlene Tapper (D) - Political Consultant, Ex-NYC Council Aide & Frequent Candidate

Ritchie Torres (D) - NYC Councilman

NY-16 (Primary vs Eliot Engel)

Eliot Engel (D)*- (Campaign Site)

Jamaal Bowman (D/WF) - Middle School Principal & Teacher

Chris Fink (D) - Attorney & Community Activist

Sammy Ravelo (D) - Retired NYPD Police Lieutenant & Gulf War Veteran

NY-17 (open, formerly Nita Lowey)

David Buchwald (D) - State Assemblyman, Ex-White Plains City Councilman & Attorney

Asha Castleberry-Hernandez (D) - College Professor, Ex-US State Dept Official & Army Veteran

David Carlucci (D) - State Sen., Ex-Clarkston Town Clerk & Ex-Congressional Aide

Evelyn Farkas (D) - Ex-US Deputy Asst Defense Secretary, Senior Fellow & Ex-Congressional Aide

Allison Fine (D) - Nonprofit Leadership Consultant, Writer & Feminist Activist

Mondaire Jones (D/WF) - Attorney & Nonprofit Group Co-Founder

Catherine Parker (D) - Westchester County Legislator, Ex-Rye City Councilwoman & Shop Owner

Adam Schleifer (D) - Attorney

NY-24 (vs. John Katko)

Dana Balter (D) - College Professor, Progressive Activist & '18 Nominee

Francis Conole (D) - Intelligence Analyst & Iraq War Veteran

NY-25 (Primary vs Joe Morello)

Joe Morelle (D/IP)* - (Campaign Site)

Robin Wilt (D) - Brighton Town Councilwoman, Realtor & '18 Candidate

The Five Stages of Donald Trump...

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday June 21, 2020 · 6:06 PM PDT

2020/06/21 · 18:06

Screen shot of the video of Trump returning from Tulsa, tie undone.

DELUSION: “We have 1 MILLION requests for tickets”

ANGER: “Trump furious about underwhelming crowd at Tulsa Rally”

DENIAL: “Trump Campaign disputes crowd totals for Tulsa rally”

BLAME: “Jared Kushner and Ivanka Trump 'pissed' at Trump campaign manager over his rally crowd size predictions”

TWEETING: (please stand by…..)

Question: How do you keep the boss happy (and the paychecks flowing?)

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Wednesday June 10, 2020 · 10:44 AM PDT

2020/06/10 · 10:44

Trump campaign demands CNN apologize for poll that shows Biden leading

Washington (CNN)President Donald Trump's campaign is demanding CNN retract and apologize for a recent poll that showed him well behind presumptive Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden.

The demand, coming in the form of a cease and desist letter to CNN President Jeff Zucker, was immediately rejected by the network.

...snip...

"It's a stunt and a phony poll to cause voter suppression, stifle momentum and enthusiasm for the President, and present a false view generally of the actual support across America for the President," read the letter, signed by the Trump campaign's senior legal adviser Jenna Ellis and chief operating officer Michael Glassner.

The campaign formally requested that CNN retract the poll and publish a "full, fair, and conspicuous retraction, apology, and clarification to correct its misleading conclusions."

It's Primary Day (Again)

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 09, 2020 · 5:01 AM PDT

2020/06/09 · 05:01

Georgia (polls close 7 PM E)

Presidential Primary

GA-SEN (1)

Sarah Riggs Amico — Businesswoman & '18 Lt Gov Nominee
Marckeith DeJesus — Financial Consultant, '16 St Rep Candidate & '17 St Sen Candidate
James Knox — Retired USAF Officer, MIS Professional & Doctoral Candidate
Tricia Carpenter McCracken — Freelance Journalist, '16 US Rep Nominee & '10 Lt Gov Candidate
Jon Ossoff — Investigative Journalist & '17 US Rep Nominee
Maya Dillard Smith — Attorney, Business Advisor & Ex-State ACLU Director
Teresa Tomlinson — Ex-Columbus Mayor & Attorney

GA-01

Joyce Griggs — Attorney, Retired Army Officer & '00 Nominee
Lisa Ring — Bryan County Democratic Chair, Ex-Corrections Officer & '18 Nominee
Barbara Seidman — Retired Businesswoman, '18 Candidate & '19 St Rep Candidate

GA-04

Hank Johnson — (Incumbent)
William Haston — Ministry Operations Manager & USAF Veteran

GA-05

John Lewis — (Incumbent)
Barrington Martin II — Writing Tutor & Paralegal

GA-07

Carolyn Bourdeaux — Ex-State Senate Budget Director, College Professor & '18 Nominee
John Eaves — Ex-Fulton County Commission Chair, Educator & '17 Atlanta Mayor Candidate
Nabilah Islam — Political Consultant
Zahra Karinshak — State Sen., Attorney, Ex-Gubernatorial Aide & USAF Veteran
Brenda Lopez — State Rep., Attorney & Teacher
Rashid Malik — Educator, Democratic Activist, '16 Nominee & '10 State Sen. Nominee

GA-09

Devin Pandy — Limousine Contractor & Retired Army NCO
Brooke Siskin — Businesswoman, Democratic Activist & '12 St Rep Candidate
Dan Wilson — Retired Pastor

GA-12

Liz Johnson — Ex-DNC Member, Retired Insurance Agent & Frequent Candidate
Dan Steiner — Retired Attorney

GA-14

David Scott — (Incumbent)
Michael Owens — Ex-Cobb County Democratic Chair, Businessman & '14 Candidate
Jannquell Peters — Ex-East Point Mayor & Attorney
Keisha Waites — Ex-State Rep., Ex-FEMA Official & '18 Fulton Co Comm Chair Candidate

South Carolina (7 PM E)

SC-03
Hosea Cleveland — Insurance Agent, Civil Engineer, Army Veteran & Frequent Candidate
Mark Welch — Retired Teacher

SC-05

Moe Brown — Ex-State Commerce Dept. Official & Ex-College Football Player
Sidney Moore — Ex-York County Councilman, Retired Businessman & Frequent Candidate

SC-07

Melissa Watson — Nonprofit Executive, Social Worker & Democratic Activist
Robert Williams — State Rep., Business Consultant, Iraq War Veteran & '18 Nominee
William "Cowboy" Williams — Retired US Postal Service Manager & Vietnam War Veteran

West Virginia (7:30 PM E)

Presidential Primary

WV-GOV

Doug Hughes — Retired State Employee, Ex-Mine Worker & Army Veteran
Jody Murphy — Ex-Chamber of Commerce Official & Ex-Newspaper Journalist
Ben Salango — Kanawha County Commissioner & Attorney
Stephen Smith — Nonprofit Group Executive & Community Organizer
Ron Stollings — State Sen., Physician & Ex-WV Medical Association President

WV-AG

Sam Petsonk — Attorney & Ex-Congressional Aide
Isaac Sponaugle — State Del. & Attorney

WV-SEN

Richard Ojeda — Ex-State Sen., Iraq/Afghan War Veteran & '14/'18 US Rep Candidate
Richie Robb — Ex-South Charleston Mayor, Attorney, Vietnam War Veteran & Frequent Candidate
Paula Jean Swearengin — Environmental Activist & '18 Candidate

WV-01

Natalie Cline — Computational Linguist
Tom Payne — Attorney, Retired Army Officer & '16/'18 Candidate

WV-03

Paul Davis — Tri-State Transit Authority CEO & '18 Candidate
Jeff Lewis — CWA Local Labor Union President & Law School Graduate
Hilary Turner — Yoga Instructor
Lacy Watson — College Professor, Psychologist & '18 St Del Nominee

Nevada (10 PM E)

NV-01

Dina Titus — (Incumbent)
Allen Rheinhart — Artist, Progressive Activist & Frequent Candidate

NV-02

Patricia Ackerman — Retired Mountaineer, Ex-Actress & '18 State Assembly Nominee
Ed Cohen — Communications Consultant
Reynaldo Hernandez — Grocery Store Produce Clerk
Clint Koble — Ex-USDA Official, Ex-Non-Profit Group Director & '18 Nominee
Ian Luetkehans — '18 Candidate
Rick Shepherd — Educator, Progressive Activist & '16/'18 Candidate
Steve Schiffman — Ex-US Diplomat, Attorney & '16/'18 Candidate

NV-03

Susie Lee — (Incumbent)
Gary Crispin — Marketing Consultant & Sanders Campaign Activist
Dennis Sullivan — Physician & Navy Veteran
Tiffany Ann Watson — '18 St Sen Candidate

NV-04

Steven Horsford — (Incumbent)
George Brucato — Painting Contractor
Chris Colley — Re-Recording Mixer
Gabrielle "Brie" D'Ayr — Risk Manager, Navy Veteran & '18 State Assembly Candidate
Jennifer Eason — Businesswoman & Progressive Activist
Gregory Kempton — Teacher

North Dakota (10 PM E)

ND-AL

Zach Raknerud — Retail Manager & '18 State Rep Nominee
Roland Riemers — Ex-Libertarian State Chair, Property Manager, USAF Veteran & Frequent Candidate

TRUMP 2020: The Potemkin Campaign

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday June 08, 2020 · 7:35 PM PDT

2020/06/08 · 19:35

Official portrait of President Donald J. Trump, Friday, October 6, 2017. (Official White House photo by Shealah Craighead)

A (perhaps apocryphal) story goes that Grigory Potempkin had fake town facades assembled along the road for the Russian Empress Catherine II to see, to assure her that all was well in her Kingdom. As Donald Trump rants about the growing sequence of polls showing him losing to Joe Biden by doubled digits, with Arizona, Georgia and (even) Texas at risk, his well-paid campaign team has had make sure Trump’ thinks he has a real campaign behind him...and that his ego is stroked enough to warrant his staff’s fat paychecks. Therefore…

Trump Camp Runs Ads on D.C. Cable to Ease the Boss’ Anxieties

With their boss growing increasingly agitated with the state of his re-election campaign and with the efforts of Republican critics to undermine it, President Donald Trump’s team hatched a plan. They’d run a series of hard-hitting ads and place them on networks that they knew the president and congressional Republicans would watch.

And so, over the past month, the Trump campaign has spent slightly more than $400,000 on cable news ads in the Washington, D.C., area, buying time largely on Fox News but with some smaller buys on CNN and MSNBC as well, according to filings with the Federal Communications Commission. The ads began running in late May and are scheduled through June 23. It is, on a purely electoral level, a remarkably quixotic use of campaign cash. The purchases have no real shot of moving D.C., Maryland, or Virginia into the Trump column.

www.thedailybeast.com/...

Today is Primary Day...

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Tuesday June 02, 2020 · 8:04 AM PDT

2020/06/02 · 08:04

Today is the remnant of the “Acela Tuesday” Presidential Primary and several other key races:

Indiana (6 PM E)

Presidential Primary

IN-01: (Democrat Peter Visclosky retiring)

Melissa Borom: Lobbyist, Attorney & Ex-Congressional Aide

Carrie Castro: Attorney

Scott Costello: Hospital Behavioral Health Director & Social Worker

Tony Daggett: Educator, Retired Army Lt Colonel & '18 Candidate

Ryan Farrar: State DCS Case Manager, Musician & Ex-Factory Worker

Sabrina Haake: Attorney & Community Activist

John Henry Hall: Attorney & Widower of US Rep Katie Hall

Jim Harper: Attorney, '18 Sec of State Nominee & '16 State Sen Candidate

Tom McDermott: Hammond Mayor, Attorney & Navy Veteran

Wendell Mosby: Ex-Prairie State Community College Trustee & Campaign Consultant

Frank Mrvan Jr.: North Township Trustee, Mortgage Broker & Democratic Activist

Mara Candelaria Reardon: State Rep. & Business Consultant

Jayson Reeves: Engineer & Frequent Candidate

Andrew Sylwestrowicz: Ex-Merrillville Councilman, Retired Firefighter & Frequent Candidate

IN-05: (Republican Susan Brooks retiring)

Jennifer Christie: Businesswoman & Environmental Chemist

Christina Hale: Ex-State Rep., Nonprofit Group Executive & '16 Lt Gov Nominee

Andy Jacobs Jr: Attorney & Son of Ex-Congressman Andy Jacobs

Ralph Spelbring: Retired Chemist & Frequent Candidate

Dee Thornton: Corporate District Sales Manager & '18 Nominee

D.C. (8 PM E)

Presidential Primary

Maryland (8 PM E)

Presidential Primary

Pennsylvania (8 PM E)

Presidential Primary

PA-01:

Christina Finello: Ivyland Borough Councilwoman, Attorney & Psychologist

Skylar Hurwitz: Blockchain Cryptocurrency Business Consultant

PA-07: (Republican Primary vs. Democratic Congresswoman Susan Wild)

Dean Browning: Ex-Lehigh County Commissioner, Businessman & '18 Candidate

Lisa Scheller: Ex-Lehigh County Commissioner & Businesswoman

PA-08: (Republican Primary vs. Democratic Congressman Matt Cartwright)

Jim Bognet: Political Consultant, Attorney & Ex-Export-Import Bank Official

Mike Cammisa: Bar Manager

Teddy Daniels: Businessman, Retired Police Officer & Afghan War Veteran

Earl Granville: Disabled Iraq/Afghan War Veteran & Disabled Veterans Advocate

Harry Haas: Luzerne County Councilman & Teacher

Mike Marsicano: Ex-Hazleton Mayor, Businessman, Ex-Democrat & '16 Candidate

PA-AUD:

Nina Ahmad: Ex-Philadelphia Deputy Mayor, Chemist & '18 Lt Gov Candidate

Scott Conklin: State Rep., Ex-Centre County Commissioner, Antique Store Owner & 10 Lt Gov Nominee

Rosie Davis: Smithfield Township Auditor & Accountant

Tracie Fountain: Accountant & Ex-Auditor General's Audit Bureau Director

Christina Hartman: Nonprofit Group Consultant, Ex-Nonprofit Executive & '16 US Rep Nominee

Michael Lamb: Pittsburgh City Controller, Ex-Allegheny County Prothonotary & Attorney

Rhode Island (8 PM E)

Presidential Primary

South Dakota (8 PM E)

Presidential Primary

New Mexico (9 PM E)

NM-02: (Republican Primary vs. Democratic Congresswoman Xochitl Torres Small)

Claire Chase: Energy Executive, State Oil/Gas Association Chair & Ex-Congressional Aide

Yvette Herrell: Ex-State Rep., Real Estate Investor & '18 Nominee

Chris Mathys: Ex-Fresno (CA) Councilman, Businessman, Army Veteran & '18 PRC Candidate

Idaho (10 PM E)

Presidential Primary

ID-SEN:

Paulette Jordan: Ex-State Rep., Environmental Activist & '18 Gov Nominee

Jim Vandermaas: Business Consultant, Retired Police Officer & '18 US Rep Candidate

Iowa (10 PM E)

IA-SEN:

Mike Franken: Retired Navy Admiral

Kimberly Graham: Attorney

Theresa Greenfield (D) - Real Estate Executive & '18 US Rep Candidate

Eddie Mauro (D) - Insurance Broker, Community Activist & '18 US Rep Candidate

IA-04: (Republican Primary)

Steve King: Incumbent

Randy Feenstra: State Sen., Ex-Sioux County Treasurer & Ex-Hull City Administrator

Steve Reeder: Real Estate Developer & Real Estate Broker

Bret Richards: Ex-Irwin Mayor, Retired Businessman & Army Veteran

Jeremy Taylor: Woodbury County Supervisor, Ex-St Rep, National Guard Officer & Pastor

Montana (10 PM E)

MT-SEN:

Steve Bullock: Governor, Ex-Attorney General & '20 Pres. Candidate

Mike Knoles: Mathematician, Physicist & Data Analyst

John Mues: Engineer & Navy Veteran

MT-AL:

Kathleen Williams: Ex-State Rep., Non-Profit Group Executive & '18 Nominee

Tom Winter: State Rep. & Businessman

MT-GOV:

Mike Cooney: Lt Governor, Ex-Sec of State, Ex-Senate President, Ex-State Rep. & '00 Candidate

Whitney Williams: Philanthropic Consultant, Businesswoman & Ex-Clinton White House Aide

MT-AG:

Kimberly Dudik: State Rep., Attorney & Ex-Nurse

Raph Graybill: Governor's Chief Legal Advisor

Why I'm likely to piss you off in the next six months...

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Sunday May 31, 2020 · 2:30 PM PDT

2020/05/31 · 14:30

Last edited Sun May 31, 2020, 05:22 PM - Edit history (1)

June is the period when most Primaries are resolved (this Tuesday we'll know our Senate candidates in Georgia and Iowa) and we'll begin to focus more on the General Election. Folks here will advocate for candidates they think deserve support. And I will probably shoot some of them down.

Let's be clear: I would never advocate NOT voting for a Democratic nominee, or not volunteering for their campaigns. But the endorsements invariably come with a request to provide financial support. And that's where I have to draw the line.

I probably receive more requests for money from candidates than anyone else here, and I have multiples calls directly from the candidates each week. In order to have an informed conversation, I started to assemble data on the competitive races around the country, which has evolved into a programmable model that tracks the competitiveness of the district/State and the candidate, the impact of key endorsements, up and down-ticket synergies, and financial status. Broadly speaking, I don't want to give money to candidates who don't need my help, or candidates for whom my help won't make a difference.

Because I (like you) have a finite supply of money to spend on campaigns, I've learned a valuable lesson over the years: don't let emotion drive your decisions. I don't want a candidate to tell me: "I'm running against [insert name of Republican I don't like]". I want them to tell me that they can BEAT [insert name of candidate I don't like], and the explain why.

In the context of 2020, we have to 1) win the Presidency, 2) hold the House and 3) win the Senate. That calls for a lot of financial investment, and therefore some rational thought about candidate choices is necessary. The $50 you give to a hopeless but emotionally appealing candidate in a longshot race is $50 you can't give to a candidate who's more competitive.

Case in point: Kentucky Senate. I've seen a lot of posts about beating Mitch McConnell and encouraging support for Amy McGrath (whom I've met with). I, like you, would love to get rid of Mitch McConnell; but the way to do that isn't to beat McConnell, it's to give the Senate to the Democrats. To do THAT, we need to pick up 3-4 more seats. And the seats that are most likely to flip are AZ-CO-ME-NC. After that are potential reaches in GA (both seats)-KS-IA-MT. KY is WAY down on the list. McConnell has a huge war chest and despite his low approval rates, has been re-elected five times. Cold-hearted analysis would say that this isn't a race to support IF there's a race with a higher probability of victory.

Some of you will say that this attitude is unfair; that we should "compete for every seat"; that McGrath can't show if she can win without support. And you're right. But my response is: "too bad". If you can't support everyone, you have to make choices. And those choices should be made rationally. Some Democratic candidates have shown they can compete against Republican incumbents, and some have not. Nobody is suggesting that we go all in on defeating Mike Rounds in SD or even the open seat in Wyoming. The targeting of McConnell is because of how people feel about him, rather than his vulnerability.

So, going forward, be aware that I'll be opining on which races I think we can win, and which I think we can't. My goal is to maximize the return of my (and your) contributions to maximize the wins we need to achieve. Nothing personal.

BREAKING: CNN camera crew arrested live on air in Minneapolis

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Friday May 29, 2020 · 3:30 AM PDT

2020/05/29 · 03:30

Reporting on the situation as police advanced.Identified themselves as press. Offered to move to where the police directed. Were abruptly arrested and taken away, Carted off their camera which was still recording.

I've completed my candidate selection model for 2020...

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday April 30, 2020 · 9:02 AM PDT

2020/04/30 · 09:02

It tracks 108 competitive House Races, as well as all Senate, Governor and Statehouse Races, and State Legislative Chamber margins, using data on State and district competitiveness, up- and down-ticket synergies, professional race ratings, key external endorsements and fundraising ability. Based on current data, I'm recommending support for the following:

House Republican Seats
Dan Feehan (MN-1)
Hiral Tipirneni (AZ-6)
Christina Hale (IN-5)
Hillary Scholten (MI-3)
Jill Schupp (MO-2)
Jackie Gordon (NY-2)
Wendy Davis (TX-21)
Betsy Dirksen Londrigan (IL-13)
Eugene DePasquale (PA-10)
Sri Kulkarni (TX-22)
Gina Ortiz Jones (TX-23)

I'm also waiting for nominees to be selected in NY-24, PA-1, GA-7 and TX-24.

House Democratic Seats
Lucy McBath (GA-6)
Abby Finkenauer (IA-1)
Rita Hart (IA-2)
Cindy Axne (IA-3)
Lauren Underwood (IL-14)
Jared Golden (ME-2)
Elissa Slotkin (MI-8)
Andy Kim (NJ-3)
Xochitl Torres Small (NM-2)
Max Rose (NY-11)
Antonia Delgado (NY-19)
Anthony Brindisi (NY-22)
Kendra Horn (OK-5)
Joe Cunningham (SC-1)
Ben McAdams (UT-4)
Elaine Luria (VA-2)
Abigail Spanberger (VA-7)
T.J. Cox (CA-21)
Christy Smith (CA-25)
Gil Cisneros (CA-29)
Harley Rouda (CA-48)
Haley Stevens (MI-11)
Chris Pappas (NH-1)
Tom Malinowski (NJ-7)
Susie Lee (NV-3)
Matt Cartwright (PA-8)
Lizzie Fletcher (TX-7)
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell

Senate Republican Seats
Theresa Greenfield (IA)
Cal Cunningham (NC)
Sara Gideon (ME)
John Hickenlooper (CO)
nb-I am NOT currently supporting Mark Kelly (AZ) because he has a massive war chest ($29 M) at this point.

Senate Democratic Seats
Doug Jones (AL)
Gary Peters (MI)

Republican Governorships
I'm awaiting Primary results in New Hampshire and Vermont.

Democratic Governorships
Whitney Williams (MT)
Roy Cooper (NC)

Republican Attorney's general
Jonathan Weinzapfel (IN)
Raph Greybill (MT)

Democratic Attorney's General
Josh Stein (NC)

Republican Secretaries of State
Gael Tarleton (WA)
Bryce Bennett (MT)

Democratic Secretaries of State
Alaine Marshall (NC)

Republican State Treasurers
Ronnie Chatterji (NC)
Duane Davidson (WA)

Democratic State Treasurers
John Perdue (WV)
Joe Torsella (PA)

State Legislative Chambers
North Caolina Senate
Minnesota Senate
New Hampshire Senate
Arizona House
North Carolina House
Pennsylvania House
Michigan House
Alaska House
Iowa House

Remember when Donald Trump refused to do any more Press Conferences?

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday April 27, 2020 · 1:34 PM PDT

2020/04/27 · 13:34

WASHINGTON, DC - APRIL 18: U.S. President Donald Trump delivers remarks during a press briefing with White House coronavirus response coordinator Deborah Birx, on April 18, 2020 in Washington, DC. Trump spoke about recent gains in the stock market reflect the success of his administrations handling of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. (Photo by Sarah Silbiger/Getty Images)

What is the purpose of having White House News Conferences when the Lamestream Media asks nothing but hostile questions, & then refuses to report the truth or facts accurately. They get record ratings, & the American people get nothing but Fake News. Not worth the time & effort!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) April 25, 2020

Today at 11 AM:

The White House on Monday canceled a coronavirus task force briefing that had been previously scheduled for 5 p.m., marking the third day without such a briefing.

White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany said on Fox News that Trump would hold a press availability during a meeting with industry executives scheduled for Monday afternoon instead of holding a briefing. McEnany also insisted there was not an effort to cut back on briefings while also suggesting the president may appear less frequently at them. She said the task force would brief the media later this week.

thehill.com/...

Today at 2 PM:

About three hours after relaying that President Trump would not hold a scheduled coronavirus briefing on Monday, the White House announced he would “brief the nation” at a news conference.

“UPDATE: The White House has additional testing guidance and other announcements about safely opening up America again,” White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany tweeted. “President @realDonaldTrump will brief the nation during a news conference this evening.”

www.washingtonpost.com/...

Can’t go cold turkey for three day...

Have you completed your 2020 Census Form yet?

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Thursday April 23, 2020 · 8:42 AM PDT

2020/04/23 · 08:42

The national response rate for the 2020 Census (available to complete since March 15) is 51.6% and have been relatively flat for the last three weeks

Poll

43 votes Show Results

I've completed the Census Form

43 votes Vote Now!

I've completed the Census Form

What's Your Excuse?

2 votes

Yes

41 votes

To defeat the Republican, you must become the Republican...

cbastian

Community (This content is not subject to review by Daily Kos staff prior to publication.)

Monday April 20, 2020 · 2:07 PM PDT

2020/04/20 · 14:07

I don't mean becoming a racist, sexist, xenophobic bible-thumper; I mean applying cold-hearted, emotionless decision-making as to which candidates you'll support financially. Think about the Koch Brothers. Did they target Bernies Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in past elections? No, they targeted vulnerable Democrats like Heidi Heitkamp and Claire McCaskill in Republican-friendly States. They didn't focus on people they hated; they focus on people they could defeat.

As we look forward to the 2020 Senate races, we must apply the same dispassionate logic. Don't focus on Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham: defeating them would be emotionally satisfying but the odds are still incredibly long (yes McGrath and Harrison outraged them in the 1st Quarter of 2020, but they still have WAY more money and political support in place). Instead, focus on the vulnerable Republicans: McSally, Gardner, Collins, Tillis. THEN, if you still have financial resources, look at the second tier pickup opportunities: Loeffler, Ernst and Kobach. Don't play the long shots.

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