As I see no other mention of it here on DKos, I’d like to post my impressions of the five candidates running against ‘incumbent’ Republican, Scott Perry (PA-04) in the newly drawn PA-10 U.S. Congressional District.
A well attended Democratic candidate forum was held yesterday at the HMAC in midtown Harrisburg.
http://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/03/with_a_republican_stronghold_n.html#incart_target2box_default_#incart_target2box_targeted_
I live within the PA-10 and this forum, though not the first time these candidates have gotten together, felt different since it followed a week in which it finally seemed the new district map was beyond challenge.
http://www.pennlive.com/capitol-notebook/2018/03/its_game_on_as_gop_dealt_doubl.html
http://www.pennlive.com/politics/index.ssf/2018/03/pa_supreme_court_chief_justice.html
AND the forum came a day after a very successful March for Our Lives rally a few blocks away on the steps of the PA Capitol.
http://www.pennlive.com/news/2018/03/hundreds_gather_for_march_for.html
Many weeks ago, when I first saw the new court-ordered remedial redistricting map, placing me in the new PA-10 composed of Dauphin County, northern York County (including the city of York) and Eastern Cumberland County (including the city of Carlisle), with the City of Harrisburg and its “east shore” and “west shore” suburbs at the heart of the district, I was very excited because it was crystal clear (in my mind) who would be the perfect Democratic candidate to win this particular map at this particular political moment: Democrat Patty Kim, current serving Dauphin County District 103 in the State Legislature.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Patty_Kim_(politician)
It is not for me to say why she chose not to run. But I have just sense enough to know it is not our place to ‘insist’ someone run for a particular office any more than it is our place to ‘insist’ a kindergarten teacher pack heat. Still it was some consolation to see her there at the forum, where she she served as moderator.
Now as for the five candidates, all of whom impressed me:
Dr. Eric Ding https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eric_Ding
Ding, an epidemiologist, struck me as the least polished candidate, even in front of a friendly crowd, he came across as nervous. Even when the topic turned to health insurance, drinking water safety, or guns as a public health issue, he never quite won the room.
Alan Howe https://howeforpa10.org/
Howe, on the other hand, had the most emotional appeal and provided the most ‘red meat’ to the crowd, twice calling Donald Trump a racist and saying impeachment would be a priority when he got to Washington D.C.. Howe is in a weird spot, his original impetus for running was as a candidate against incumbent Republican Lou Barletta in the egregiously gerrymandered PA-11 (as previously defined). For now, the gerrymander has been fixed and Barletta has run off for a quixotic Senate run against Bob Casey. Howe is left to redefine himself to a new set of voters.
Christina Hartman https://christinamhartman.com/
Hartman, in many ways, is the most experienced and polished as a candidate, but she was disadvantaged by this new map. She ran a solid campaign in the old PA-16 in 2016 and was on track to do so again this year. But the new map resulted in her being pushed out of that race in favor of another progressive candidate. So she’s running here in the PA-10 which, as far as I can tell, she has never called home. Technically, that does not disqualify her from running, just as technically all parts of a fancy over-the-top event cake may be ‘edible’, but at some point she has to make the case for her representing the PA-10 in Washington, and I didn’t hear a convincing argument at the forum yesterday. In fact, her frequent mentions of international experience only accentuated her outsider status.
George Scott https://www.georgescott4congress.com/
Scott presents himself as more than equal to Scott Perry with regard to two of Perry’s presumed core constituents: military veterans and ‘values voters’. Scott is retired military and an ordained Lutheran minister and also like Perry, based in the rural part of the district.
Shavonia Corbin-Johnson https://ballotpedia.org/Shavonnia_Corbin-Johnson
Corbin-Johnson is very young, but presented herself as a very solid candidate who has close ties to the City of York, but also Harrisburg, and Carlisle. Although she has been a declared candidate against Perry since before the redistricting, she does not seem to have much of an online presence beyond facebook.
SCOTT and CORBIN-JOHNSON have been running against Perry since before the court-ordered redistricting. That showed at the forum. The two of them repeatedly mentioned beating Scott Perry as the priority, and they both improved my opinion of them. They are also the two candidates with the deepest roots in the district.
HARTMAN is obviously an effective campaigner and won the room on several occasions, but she has to pre-empt the inevitable attack regarding her outsider status in this race. The closest she came last night was when she spoke to her family’s struggles with medical expenses and the impact that has had on their prospects for home-ownership, but dwelling on that has its own risks.
HOWE, in rough outline, seems similar to SCOTT (retired military from the rural western edge of the district. Though it seemed to me HOWE might be better in a face to face debate with Perry. Such a debate would certainly be more fun, but I’m not sure it would win the voters who might put this district in play.
This race is important to track even though it may not seem like the likeliest pickup in November. Here are a few reasons I think you should:
Scott Perry has never been seriously challenged in a U.S. House Race. In press appearances, in his own townhalls, he has frequently proven to be easily flustered when pressed by unsympathetic questions. He stammers, he jabbers, he exhibits odd body language when off the rails. Perry himself now has the burden of introduce himself to the east shore portions of this new PA-10.
In fighting for the PA-10, we are taking the battle to the assumed stronghold of Republican Scott Wagner, currently running against incumbent Governor Tom Wolf, and the former congressional district of Republican Lou Barletta, currently running against Senator Bob Casey. If our opponents lose ground on their home turf, they cannot hope to win those statewide races.
At some point, before November, a segment of the conservative PA-10 electorate who have voted for Perry with reservations will have to pause and confront the prospect of Perry carrying on his half-hearted tea-party chain-letter schtick while in the congressional MINORITY, and that is when and where a blue wave becomes a blue tsunami.
I apologize if my observations dwell overly on my concerns about the five candidates. This is a compelling group. I am grateful to each of them for stepping up. I hope we have a constructive and engaging spring primary process in the PA-10 and I look forward to supporting whichever candidate wins through.