The Opportunity for a Realignment, Part IV

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Saturday September 20, 2008 · 10:46 PM PDT

2008/09/20 · 22:46

Part I
Part II
Part III
Recently mcjoan had a diary discussing Democratic opportunities in the Mountain West. There has been a lot of focus on the Mountain West as a region of potential growth for the Democratic Party, but I think a lot of it is overhyped, and should be reconsidered.

Looking at it from a purely numerical perspective, the Mountain West (containing Colorado, New Mexico, Arizona, Nevada, Utah, Idaho, Montana, and Wyoming) offers just 44 electoral votes, while other regions offering the potential for growth for Democrats, the South and the Midwest, have 173 and 124 electoral votes, respectively. The Mountain West has 16 Senate seats, but the South has 28, and the Midwest has 26. The Mountain West has 28 House seats, while the South has 145 and the Midwest has 98.

cjallen

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Saturday September 20, 2008 · 12:59 AM PDT

2008/09/20 · 00:59

Part I
Part II

After the 2008 election, the Democratic Party will be unquestionably the majority party in three out of four regions in the country. In the West, Midwest, and Northeast, Democrats will hold most of the power, and in the South, Republicans still dominate. To illustrate this, in a recent poll Barack Obama had over half the vote in the West, Midwest, and Northeast, while McCain couldn't even break 40% across any of those regions. McCain led only in the South, with only 48%, to Obama's 43%, meaning Obama was stronger in the South than McCain is anywhere outside the South. Obama is also strong in places where Democrats have recently had success at lower levels, such as Indiana, Virginia, Montana, and Colorado, some of which have been Republican strongholds for decades.

cjallen

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Thursday September 11, 2008 · 10:49 PM PDT

2008/09/11 · 22:49

Part I

Building a New Generational Democratic Majority

Much attention is being paid to the white working class in discussion of the current election. It is as if this group among the population is becoming more important than before. In fact, this group is shrinking. Growing black, Latino, and Asian populations are making up a larger portion of the population, especially in the larger states like California and Texas, and especially in the South and Southwest. Professionals, and particularly women professionals are making up a larger share of the workforce.

cjallen

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Wednesday September 10, 2008 · 9:58 AM PDT

2008/09/10 · 09:58

America is going through a number of demographic changes which make our country ripe for a realignment. Many of these have been discussed individually in respect to how they will impact our politics (have you read The Emerging Democratic Majority?), but I don't think what I shall bring up has been discussed together.

Much has been made of how immigration from Latin America is changing our nation. Latinos have surpassed African Americans as the most numerous ethnic minority. In a number of years, minorities together may make non-Hispanic whites merely a plurality rather than a majority of the population, as has already happened in some states. At the same time, Latinos appear to be becoming more aligned with the Democratic Party, not nearly as much as African Americans or even Jews, but strongly nevertheless. Particularly in the West this will be more and more significant.

cjallen

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Thursday August 28, 2008 · 12:12 PM PDT

2008/08/28 · 12:12

Coming into the 2008 election, there are 49 Republican Senators and 51 Democratic or Democratic-caucusing Senators. We are expecting to gain seats in CO, NM, VA, NH, and AK, to bring the total to 56, but are also close in NC, OR, and MN, and are hoping to make strong challenges in GA, KY, ME, and MS B. It's unlikely that we will reach the magic filibuster-proof majority in 2008, but in 2010, we have a much better chance. Looking ahead, there are few Democratic seats which should be in danger, and roughly a dozen Republican seats which could have the potential to be competitive. Let's look at the Democratic seats first.

Format: Name, state approval/disapproval rating (beware, often many months old)

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The Opportunity for a Realignment, Part IV

The Opportunity for a Realignment, Part III

The Opportunity for a Realignment, Part II

The Opportunity for a Realignment, Part I

Senate 2010: Fertile Ground