Is Trump throwing in the towel, or what?

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Friday October 07, 2016 · 10:34 AM PDT

2016/10/07 · 10:34

This’ll be short, guys —

Not opening field offices, not prepping for debates. Not even really spending on ads or analytics or GOTV. I’ve thought for a while that Trump was sending every signal possible that he wasn’t serious about this thing and didn’t really want to win. And today, I see this on Twitter:

Trump campaign is canceling hundreds of thousands of dollars in advertising in Fla, NC, OH, possibly other states, per two buying sources.
Ã¢ÂÂ Maggie Haberman (@maggieNYT) October 7, 2016

Confirmed that Trump is canceling ad buys in Fla, NC, OH worth a total of $1.5m (could be higher). Campaign may reinvest though.
Ã¢ÂÂ Sam Stein (@samsteinhp) October 7, 2016

What possible explanation could there be for this, other than abject surrender? Cancelling ad buys to ‘re-invest’ is simply a gigantic waste of money if it’s done in the same states.

Changes nothing for us — time to run up the score as much as possible, so get out there and vote and phonebank and knock on doors. But still a puzzling move on their part that defies logical explanation, which I guess fits right in with the candidate himself.

Wow: Clinton surges to 48-33 in McClatchy-Marist poll!

cycloptichorn

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Thursday August 04, 2016 · 1:58 PM PDT

2016/08/04 · 13:58

Hillary Clinton has surged to a 15-point lead over reeling, gaffe-plagued Donald Trump, according to a new McClatchy-Marist poll.

Clinton made strong gains with two constituencies crucial to a Republican victory – whites and men — while scoring important gains among fellow Democrats, the poll found.

Clinton not only went up, but Trump went down. Clinton now has a 48-33 lead, a huge turnaround from her narrow 42-39 advantage last month.

Do McClatchy a favor and go read the article, the whole thing is great.

Clinton opens up double-digit lead (46/35) over Trump nationwide: Reuters/Ipsos poll

cycloptichorn

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Friday June 03, 2016 · 1:51 PM PDT

2016/06/03 · 13:51

10-hillary-clinton.w529.h529.jpg — Who has two thumbs and is winning? This Gal.

After briefly being tied earlier this month….

I hope that what we’re seeing here is the beginning of a solid trend. Not only because I’d love to see HRC take office this Fall, but because it would actually reassure me that our country isn’t crazy. Trump has had a very, very bad week and frankly I think this racist attack on the judge in his case was a terrible idea on his part that has the potential to hurt his campaign worse than ANYTHING he’s done or said. It’s truly indefensible, and everyone, including right-wing media, seems to agree on this.

Enough fighting among ourselves. I’m as guilty of it as anyone, because I tend to get angry and let my keyboard run away with me, which I usually regret later. I pledge today: no more from me. No more negativity, no matter what I read people write. I’m just going to spend my time phonebanking and harassing my Conservative family members to do the right thing and vote Clinton this Fall.

Cheers to you all

Survey USA CA: Clinton 57, Sanders 38

cycloptichorn

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Monday May 02, 2016 · 1:11 PM PDT

2016/05/02 · 13:11

For those betting on a massive comeback in CA for Bernie…

I’ll take that action. I’ve lived in the Bay Area a long time and have been telling people all year that Clinton’s got this state on lockdown. Never been able to understand where the confidence that Bernie supporters have had that he could win here, comes from. He’s literally never led a CA poll and Hillary’s top-line has never been below 46% in any poll.

June 7, 2016. She’ll clinch the nomination and be declared winner that day, and a big CA win would really just be the icing on the cake. If Hillary is to win this state (and it’s looking awful likely), she will have won NY, CA and IL, all Dem strongholds in the Fall. Also will have won VA, FL, OH, NC and NV, important swing-states. Looking pretty damn solid for the GE.

Edit: ~~here’s the full survey, including crosstabs, thanks~~ Whoops, that was last month, everyone laugh at myself and John R!

Cheers!

ARG Poll dump out

cycloptichorn

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Wednesday September 17, 2008 · 10:30 AM PDT

2008/09/17 · 10:30

ARG just released their large amount of state polls -

September 17, 2008 - General Election Ballots
Presidential Ballots
State McCain Obama Other Undecided
AL 58% 36% 1% 5%
AK 55% 39% 2% 3%
AZ 56% 39% 1% 3%
CO 46% 44% 3% 7%
DE 40% 51% 1% 8%
DC 13% 82% - 4%
HI 32% 63% 2% 4%
ID 68% 25% - 6%
IL 45% 51% 1% 4%
KS 63% 31% - 6%
KY 57% 37% 1% 5%
LA 50% 43% 1% 6%
ME 41% 51% - 8%
MS 55% 39% 1% 5%
MO 50% 45% - 5%
MT 49% 47% 1% 4%
NV 49% 46% - 5%
NM 44% 51% - 5%
NY 38% 55% 2% 5%
NC 52% 41% 1% 6%
OH 50% 44% - 6%
RI 33% 59% - 8%
TX 57% 36% 1% 6%
UT 65% 29% - 6%
WV 49% 45% - 7%
WY 66% 28% - 5%
Click on each state for survey details. Totals may not add up to 100% because of rounding.

http://www.americanresearchgroup.com/

Cross-tabs if you click on the links, basic ones at least.

cycloptichorn

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Wednesday March 26, 2008 · 3:43 PM PDT

2008/03/26 · 15:43

It seems that some Super-delegates are now willing to go on the record about the damage that Hillary is doing with her scurrilous tactics. From MSNBC's First Read:

From NBC/NJ's Matthew E. Berger
At a time when Sen. Hillary Clinton is increasingly relying on superdelegates to vault her to the Democratic Party's nomination, a handful of undecided and pledged superdelegates are coming forward to say her campaign's tactics in recent weeks are doing more harm than good.

The Democratic Party insiders say they believe Clinton's direct attacks against Sen. Barack Obama in recent days are hurting the party and its chances in November, and also say it is showing a calculated, desperate-to-win side of Clinton that they dislike.

"In looking at the manner in which the candidates are campaigning, I think it would be best they focused their attention on the presumptive nominee and showed our party which one is better in campaigning against McCain," said Garry Shay, a California superdelegate, who announced his support for Clinton.

Wow - exactly what many of us think, and nice to hear!

cycloptichorn

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Thursday March 06, 2008 · 6:19 PM PST

2008/03/06 · 18:19

So, here's something interesting:

http://calitics.com/...

Calitics is reporting that Sen. Obama will be getting some unexpected delegates in CA due to the completion of the recount!

Edit: The California SoS seems to confirm the election results as of March 5th (which is after the March 4th Calitics article) and the math works out! So it looks legit!

Anyone know what the best way to get the AP to update their list is? I need to see this in print..

cycloptichorn

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Friday February 22, 2008 · 10:48 AM PST

2008/02/22 · 10:48

So, I've really spread out as of late to different blogs then DKos in an effort to become better acquainted with the various opinions which are out there. I don't believe as many seem to that DKos is 'Obama central'; I suppose they can't remember the amazingly long period in which John Edwards was the clear favorite of most of the posters here, and every day seemed to have nothing but Edwards diaries on the Rec list. After he dropped out the majority of his support went to Obama on Dkos, true; but that is reflected in the electorate at large, so I'm not sure why people are surprised by this!

cycloptichorn

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Tuesday February 05, 2008 · 11:53 AM PST

2008/02/05 · 11:53

I'll keep this short and sweet: Obama should refuse to debate Hillary any further, and not just on Fox News, but anywhere. I can see no strategic advantage that he gains from accepting these debates.

cycloptichorn

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Wednesday November 07, 2007 · 5:29 PM PST

2007/11/07 · 17:29

ENDA passes in the House this evening, 235-184.

Per Thinkprogress:

ENDA passes the House.

The House passed the Employment Non-Discrimination Act (ENDA) passed this evening with a 235-184 vote. Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA), on the verge of tears, one of two openly gay members of the House, delivered an emotional speech denouncing the efforts of conservatives who attempted to sabotage the bill with parliamentary manuevers. Frank received resounding applause.

TP has video of Barney Frank giving one of the finest speeches I've ever heard on the floor of the House. Truly inspiring. Once I figure out how to paste a Youtube clip in here, I'll bring it along.

cycloptichorn

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Wednesday July 25, 2007 · 11:54 AM PDT

2007/07/25 · 11:54

Cross-posted at Some Notes on Living. Do stop by sometime.

Today was a happy day for many of us, as the House Judiciary committee approved a recommendation for the House as a whole to vote on Contempt charges for former WH legal counsel Harriet Miers and Chief of Staff Joshua Bolten.

Tucked into the bottom of the AP story on this, however, I saw:

A senior Democratic official who spoke on condition of anonymity said the House itself likely would take up the citations after Congress' August recess. The official declined to speak on the record because no date had been set for the House vote.

Why wait? It seems to me the Dems would be passing on a golden opportunity to make WH intransigence the story of the summer.

cycloptichorn

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Tuesday July 17, 2007 · 11:25 AM PDT

2007/07/17 · 11:25

Cross posted at somenotesonliving.blogspot.com. Do come check it out sometime.

Executive Privilege - does it actually exist?

This is the question that I've been trying to figure out over the last few months. I must admit that the term itself, 'Executive Privilege,' is rather impressive; I suspect that this is one reason why Conservatives and Republicans love it so much, the image of a broad-shouldered leader shrugging off the opposition through pure exertion of will.

I think there are two aspects to the question of executive privilege: first, the question of whether or not you believe in an executive branch which is more powerful then the other branches, and second, whether or not you believe that this means the Executive branch is basically unchecked.

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Is Trump throwing in the towel, or what?

Wow: Clinton surges to 48-33 in McClatchy-Marist poll!

Clinton opens up double-digit lead (46/35) over Trump nationwide: Reuters/Ipsos poll

Survey USA CA: Clinton 57, Sanders 38

ARG Poll dump out

Clinton Tactics Alienating SD's

Extra delegates for Obama!!

Armando has lost it

Obama: Refuse all debate offers!

ENDA passes the House; Frank Knocks 'em dead

Vote on contempt charges BEFORE August!!!

Executive Privilege - does it actually exist?