How Obama wins the nomination.

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Sunday October 07, 2007 · 11:40 AM PDT

2007/10/07 · 11:40

While this polling and race analysis is primarily for bucking up Obama fans, it is also not completely biased. While, I want Obama to get the nomination, I also think he can and that belief could change. There will be valuable information for non-Obama fans also.

Let me begin by saying Hillary Clinton is the front-runner. So long as she has a national polling lead of roughly 20 points, she will be the front-runner. However the polling is not anywhere near inevitability level and while Obama supporters may know that intuitively, it is important that we are able to explain why it is so. Particularly when numbers like a 33% national polling lead comes out. This poll was a major outlier based not just on the other national polls but also any intelligent analysis of the state polling. It is also important that has much as this is a race for votes, it is also a race for delegates. An understanding how this race may play out follows, also with the history guide such a scenario.

democraticavenger

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Monday October 01, 2007 · 4:03 PM PDT

2007/10/01 · 16:03

Based on everything we know, Democrats are way up and Republicans are way down.
This includes money, polling, retirements and organizational power, such as Governorships, across the states. The American people also agree with us on the issues, like getting out of Iraq, funding SCHIP, even now national security. I could pile on the Republicans but there is no need.
The sad truth is Democratic positions have always been more popular than Republican positions. If you in 1984 had a blind test on policy between Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale, Mondale would have won. To quote Bill Clinton "they need a divided America and we don’t. " What the Republicans do to win is political Venom. How they do this and who is best position to stop is a question we must ask.

democraticavenger

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Monday September 24, 2007 · 10:06 PM PDT

2007/09/24 · 22:06

Yesterday I wrote this Diary,
http://www.dailykos.com/... outlining John Edwards’s online fundraising problems and how they affect the race. The Edwards fans were obliviously not happy. Arguing, that a. The numbers were meaningless and b, that judging based on the money is tantamount to being a Republican. However today numbers should dispel those notions. The numbers at the top of the diary are the number of new donors to each campaign today. For Edwards the number is those listed on Actblue. For Obama it is the difference between the number listed in an e-mail today, and the total midnight. This is not a monetary number but instead a people number. Overwhelming more people chose to invest in Barack Obama today than John Edwards. That should mean something to a populist campaign. I will be back tomorrow with another days numbers and what it all might mean. For now, just think on them.

With a Week to go in Q3 John Edwards is going raise less than $ 5M

democraticavenger

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Sunday September 23, 2007 · 9:31 PM PDT

2007/09/23 · 21:31

*For the Record, I am a strong supporter of Barack Obama’s campaign for President

Senator Edwards did a very bold thing in his fundraising and that is post it on Actblue, however it is this act of bravery which gives me the data that shows almost conclusive that by September 30th, John Edwards will be for all real purpose out of the top tier in any meaningful way. Follow me down for the Numbers.

democraticavenger

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Saturday September 08, 2007 · 4:59 PM PDT

2007/09/08 · 16:59

I have been watching this Bush Dog campaign with both a sense of amusement and some fear. I happen to be one who takes a generally anti-primary attitude believing that except in extreme cases running a primary against a sitting member of Congress is simply bad for any host of reasons. I am going to however take the leap with you and say Bush Dogs are generally very bad and a lot need to go. Lets go further and let’s say that just as there are Democrats and Republicans, there are also Progressives and Conservatives. We at Openleft chose to ignore the party distinction and focus simply on the distinction between Progressive and Conservatives. We also assume that The Bush Dogs are all Conservatives. So Conservatives hold 241 seats to Progressives 194. Therefore for Progressive to have a majority in Congress, Progressive needs to pick up 24 seats. This is obviously very simplified but lets start here. You are the Progressive Strategist, where would you put your resources? Here is the list of seats.

democraticavenger

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Wednesday August 08, 2007 · 11:29 AM PDT

2007/08/08 · 11:29

Areyouready's reading of the poll is just so off the charts biased as to ignore all reality. The truth is Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama, could based on this poll either win or lose all three states polled against Rudy. Niether one has any edge but also has no real flaws. The key to understanding this poll like any poll is to read the cross tabs. I will do this for Florida and then summarize for the other 2.

democraticavenger

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Monday August 06, 2007 · 8:59 AM PDT

2007/08/06 · 08:59

Disclaimer. Tim Walz had no part in this, nor do I claim to be speaking for him. I merely used him as an example because I believed the usual arguements attacking Democrats for bad things did not apply to him.

There is a clear disconnect between how we in the blogosphere view the most recent FISA vote and how the people who voted against us on this issue view it. I think that the completely over the top rhetoric, by inherently implying that those who didn’t vote our way are pro-police state. http://www.openleft.com/... is not helpful. I think is time to explore the potential thinking of one Member of Congress whose vote might be surprising and should be instructive of how this debate is not merely the simple back and forth of self-outs and is in many ways a cultural vote and one that is very important to understand.

Poll

63 votes Show Results

Am I right?

63 votes Vote Now!

Am I right?

Yes

5 votes

31 votes

Impeach Bush

27 votes

16 of 20 Sen Repubs up for re-election took Stevens' Money

democraticavenger

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Wednesday August 01, 2007 · 12:28 PM PDT

2007/08/01 · 12:28

So I am not sure if this has been noted, but one of the effective tactics used by Democrats in the House in the 2006 cycle was to call on House Republicans to return dirty money. Delay,Foley, e.t.c. Inherently in the story it linked the names of Republicans with their crooked friends even if they returned the money,.
This can and should be used again by the challengers to the all the Republican Senators up for re-election. It is a near perfect tactic and since Ted Stevens gives no money to Democrats, it simply is perfect. While other Senators may give benifit of the doubt, we don't have to.

The list is on the jump, and here
http://www.opensecrets.org/...

democraticavenger

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Friday July 20, 2007 · 12:30 PM PDT

2007/07/20 · 12:30

So just yesterday the NRCC chair launched this memo outlining the Republican plan to take back the House. I quite frankly found the whole thing pretty laughable.
http://www.nrcc.org/... but this quote I think takes the cake.
"The NRCC has already recruited strong candidates in more than enough seats to win back the majority." Excuse me but what in the world are they talking about. As I outlined in a recent diary, http://www.mydd.com/... with challengers with more 100,000 cash on hand. I said that Democrats led in this category 24-9 it ended up being 24-10 but the point is just 10. Today’s House Hotline showed that except for the freshman races, the Republicans had exactly 1, count them 1 Republican file with FEC in a district held by a long term Democrat.

Poll

108 votes Show Results

Can we landslide?

108 votes Vote Now!

Can we landslide?

Yes

98 votes

10 votes

Democrats have more than 2-1 advantage of House Challengers with $100,000 in the bank.

democraticavenger

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Tuesday July 17, 2007 · 11:25 AM PDT

2007/07/17 · 11:25

This is the biggest story coming out of the most recent fundraising numbers on the House Side. While Tom Cole and NRCC huff and puff about how they plan to blow our house down. We have got the finest brick house in the land. Ignoring, for a second, the fact that the DCCC and DSCC are both taking their counterparts to school or that the Democratic Presidential are out raising their Republican counterparts by huge sums with even more in the bank, you can not possibly win races any races without candidates. It is on the count of fundede challengers where Democrats in the House are destroying their Republican opponents. As of June 30th the Democrats have twenty-four Republican held districts with candidates with $100,000 or more cash on hand. This compares to only nine such districts for Republicans. For a deeper analysis of this nearly 3-1 advantage follow the jump.

Poll

57 votes Show Results

How many seats will Dems gain in the House?

57 votes Vote Now!

How many seats will Dems gain in the House?

Lose Seats

4 votes

0-5

3 votes

5-10

12 votes

10-15

13 votes

15-20

10 votes

20+

15 votes

Why Barack Obama

democraticavenger

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Saturday May 19, 2007 · 2:10 AM PDT

2007/05/19 · 02:10

Why Barack Obama

Dear Friends and those of the wider Blogosphere.

I write today to formally announce my support for one of our great Democratic Presidential Candidates. I am heading to New Hampshire as part of Barack Obama’s massive canvass day. Let me begin with an extremely important statement that I wish all who are engaged in this debate would honor. Of the six major Democratic Candidates, All would be good presidents, all are electable, all generally share our values. We are blessed with many good choices. But I believe Barack Obama would be the best nominee for our party and the best president for our country.

democraticavenger

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Wednesday May 09, 2007 · 12:09 PM PDT

2007/05/09 · 12:09

The Netroots community has been drifting. In many ways the unity of purpose and mission that comes from an election cycle has been lost in the ruckus surrounding both the Presidential Primaries and the duels over contrasting strategies on how to best end the War in Iraq. However there is clearly no better way to force the President to change course than to override his veto. Already the Republican Minority Leader John Boehner is discussing the possibility of re-evaluating the issue come September. He should not be allowed to wait. But how can we tie Republican hands.. We can force them by electing Jim Marlow to Congress on June 19th or in the subsequent runoff election.

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How Obama wins the nomination.

Barack,Hillary and Political Venom.

Barack Obama 4822, John Edwards 128

With a Week to go in Q3 John Edwards is going raise less than $ 5M

It is easier to Win Rep held Seats than Bush Dog Seats

They are both electable in Q poll. If you actually read the poll.

My Security versus their Civil Liberties. Why Tim Walz voted for FISA

16 of 20 Sen Repubs up for re-election took Stevens' Money

House Republicans are delusional on 2008 Chances

Democrats have more than 2-1 advantage of House Challengers with $100,000 in the bank.

Why Barack Obama

End the War, Elect Jim Marlow to Congress in Georgia’s 10th district.