Rasmussen FL: Obama closes to a point

distantcousin

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Friday September 26, 2008 · 6:05 AM PDT

2008/09/26 · 06:05

Rasmussen has a new poll out of Florida. Bad news is it still shows McCain ahead.

Good news is that it shows Obama improving by 4, to within a point of McCain - and that's in less than a week.

Results:

McCain 48 (51)
Obama 47 (46)

Obama has also improved his favorability rating by 5 points

distantcousin

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Saturday August 30, 2008 · 9:55 AM PDT

2008/08/30 · 09:55

Sarah Palin is certainly a bold pick for VP nominee and one that I reckon McCain settled on himself, feeling he needed a "game-changer". It shakes up the race, and we should expect to see some undecideds move over to McCain as a result. However, I think there will also be more people who become "undecided" or switch to supporting Obama/Biden. In this diary I try to summarise the main "positives" and "negatives", and show why the negatives look at this stage much more likely to prevail.

distantcousin

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Friday August 29, 2008 · 5:35 AM PDT

2008/08/29 · 05:35

On intrade Pawlenty and Romney have suddenly cratered while Palin has shot through the roof as a plane makes its way from Alaska to Ohio.

This looks like a high-risk gamble by McCain - perhaps a last-minute change of mind as he realises that playing safe with one of the boring Repub white men isn't going to be enough to counter what the Democrats just produced.

One very obvious point is that it totally blows away the criticism of "inexperience" as the Republicans' main attack on Obama, as Palin has considerably less than Obama.

It is certainly one bold pick, and I reckon it must be McCain's own rather than the Roveites'.

Rasmussen Oregon poll: Obama +9

distantcousin

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Wednesday July 16, 2008 · 9:44 AM PDT

2008/07/16 · 09:44

Rasmussen has just released a new poll of Oregon which shows Obama leading by 9%.

The figures (June results in brackets):

Obama 46 (46)
McCain 37 (38)

distantcousin

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Wednesday July 09, 2008 · 6:04 AM PDT

2008/07/09 · 06:04

For those of you who've been pining for polls over the last few days, Zogby has now inaugurated his electoral college map, complete with polling from many of the states.

Since it's based on Zogby Online polling, we perhaps shouldn't be surprised that it contains some surprises. Most of them are encouraging for Obama, the highlights being:

MO Obama +2
VA Obama +5
NC Obama +9
SC Obama +1
AR Obama +2
AZ Obama +3
TX McCain +3

distantcousin

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Wednesday July 02, 2008 · 9:20 AM PDT

2008/07/02 · 09:20

A new Quinnipiac University poll has Obama beating McCain 56-35 in Connecticut.

This maybe doesn't come as much of a surprise, but it should be recalled that Rasmussen polled CT at the end of May and found Obama up by only 3. After that some of the McCain team started talking excitedly about a possible "Lieberman effect", and if I recall correctly they marked CT as a possible target state on the McCain website strategy briefing.

Well, doesn't look like they'll be following up on that one. The internals don't provide any comfort for McCain either - Obama leads in every category the pollsters could think of, except Republicans.

Obama +28 in California!

distantcousin

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Wednesday June 25, 2008 · 6:55 AM PDT

2008/06/25 · 06:55

Things are going from good to better in California for Obama. Rasmussen Reports now has him up by an even greater margin than their previous poll a month ago.

Those figures (May in brackets):

Obama 58 (52)
McCain 30 (38)

Polling was conducted immediately after McCain's "let's drill" speech and Rasmussen speculates that this has damaged him in California even if it's helped him elsewhere. Looks like those "big states" where Obama didn't win the primary are coming around quite nicely...

distantcousin

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Friday June 13, 2008 · 6:40 AM PDT

2008/06/13 · 06:40

Rasmussen reports has just announced a co-operation agreement with fivethirtyeight.com to use its data in helping construct the Rasmussen balance-of-power calculator.

Their comment on the agreement includes this glowing testimonial from Scott Rasmussen:

Nate Silver and fivethirtyeight.com are a great example of how the online community is improving election coverage. His quantitative approach is a welcome addition to the debate and a valuable resource for any serious electoral analyst or armchair campaign manager.

Good to see Poblano getting the recognition he deserves. And kudos to Rasmussen for recognising the power of the online community to improve his work.

McCain's weird battleground state list

distantcousin

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Thursday June 12, 2008 · 6:27 AM PDT

2008/06/12 · 06:27

John McCain's team recently published a strategy presentation on his website which contains a breakdown of how they perceive the electoral battleground shaping up.

I find this map rather odd, both for what it includes and for what it excludes.

distantcousin

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Wednesday June 04, 2008 · 6:56 AM PDT

2008/06/04 · 06:56

After reading this dissection of the campaign in WaPo my respect for the Obama campaign team has grown considerably. I love the fact that a year ago they were analysing every one of the more than 400 congressional districts to work out where to focus their energies, at around the same time that Penn was briefing the Clinton campaign that California would put Hillary over the top because she would net all 370 delegates with a win there.

distantcousin

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Monday May 19, 2008 · 5:50 AM PDT

2008/05/19 · 05:50

A new Rasmussen poll just out shows Obama coming back against McCain in Ohio in the last month.

Figures (April results in brackets)

McCain 45 (47)
Obama 44 (40)

McCain 43 (47)
Clinton 50 (42)

distantcousin

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Thursday May 08, 2008 · 10:55 AM PDT

2008/05/08 · 10:55

Rasmussen reports has done new polling in Missouri and Georgia. Georgia, as you would expect, does not look at all promising, but Missouri has improved substantially from the position when Rasmussen last took readings in March.

Latest figures (March numbers in brackets):

McCain 47 (53)
Obama 41 (38)

McCain 45 (50)
Clinton 43 (41)

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