There’s no way around it.
With Florida gone —
With a 7% to 12% decline across the board from Obama’s 2012 results.
She’s down now in North Carolina, Ohio, and Michigan.
Yes, the polls totally missed it.
But it’s over.
UPDATE 1 —
Clinton is winning Rhode Island by only 13% with 75% of the vote in.
Obama won R.I. in 2012 with a 27% margin — that’s a 14% decline.
In one of the strongest Dem states in the country.
UPDATE 2 —
Clinton is leading Trump in Lorain County, Ohio by only 3% with 53% of the vote in.
Obama won Lorain County by 15% in 2012 — a 12% decline.
These are enormous differences — insurmountable.
UPDATE 3 —
Middlesex County, NJ
2016 93% counted — D 58%, R 38% with 255,000 voters
2012 — D 63%, R 36% with 300,000 voters
A 7% decline in margin of victory and turnout down 10%+ in a Dem county.
UPDATE 4 —
Shall we talk about Wisconsin, now?
I mean, it’s the same process moving westwards. Clinton underperforming 2012 by 5%-10%.
And that is an insane margin — one that cannot be overlooked.
Milwaukee County — 82% reporting
Clinton Margin 34%, Obama 2012 margin 36%
Total Vote 2016 — 310,000 x 1.25 > 388,888
Total Vote 2012 — 493,000
So even when she has a similar percentage, her turnout is down 100,000.
UPDATE 5 — Turnout
With about half the vote counted, Wisconsin is at 1,500,000 voters » 3,000,000 final tally.
2012 — 3,065,000 — so the overall total will likely be the same.
Yet, Clinton is showing a deficit of 100,000 in Milwaukee County.
That suggests that despite her vaunted ground game, Trump voters were more motivated.
UPDATE 6 — Lackawanna County, Penna
This may be one of the biggest newsmakers of the election. Core Dem county.
2016 — Clinton 51%, Trump 46% — 5% D margin
2012 — Obama 63%, Romney 36% — 27% D margin
That a decline of 22% — you don’t win elections when you almost lose core counties.
* Lackwanna County is where Joe Biden hails from.
UPDATE 7 — Iowa
Eastern Iowa counties are those with a Democratic tradition.
Many have been devastated by outsourcing and deindustrialization/
Muscatine County — 88% reporting
2016 — Trump 51%, Clinton 43%
2012 — Obama 57%, Romney 41%
An unbelievable 24% swing.
UPDATE 8 — Washington State
I have done significant research in rural Washington — logging & fishing communities.
Post WWII, there was a saying that the U.S. had 47 states and the soviet of Washington.
Wahkiakum County may be small, but it is indicative.
In 1988 it gave a 20% margin to Dukakis.
Tonight it is giving a 20% margin to Trump.