Let’s discuss each of these in turn.
There will be a war in Eastern Europe.
The two forces that keep Pax Europa in the 21st Century are NATO and the EU. The election of Donald Trump and other far-right russophile nationalists, along with Russia’s recent overtures to Turkey, has weakened NATO; the victory of Brexit has weakened the EU. This gives belligerent powers an opening they haven’t had since the end of the Balkans Wars.
Russia has already demonstrated that it is willing to invade countries that are getting too close to the West for their tastes (Georgia, Ukraine). It will almost certainly take another stab at it soon, whether in Ukraine, Georgia, or, most frighteningly, NATO partners in the Baltic Sea: Finland, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, or Sweden.
This is not to imply that Russia is the nation that will instigate the war. There are other countries in Eastern Europe that are looking to expand their borders. Relations between Serbia and Kosovo have soured, with Serbia indicating that they might try to annex them again. And Hungary, which has been under the control of a far-right party for some time, has not given up their WWII territorial claims.
The Far Right will win in the Netherlands, but not in Germany or France, despite substantial gains.
Far-right, islamophobic, russophile parties are going to make big gains in Western Europe. This is inevitable at this point; terrorist attacks and a huge media push by Russia (of which Wikileaks and the alt-right are now almost certainly a part) have laid the groundwork for this. The question is whether the far right will win any of the 2017 elections outright.
The Netherlands looks like a shoo-in for the far right as the PVV has consistently led in the polls.
Germany, on the other hand, still looks good for the mainline parties and for Merkel in particular, although the far right AfD has made gains recently. This has prompted Merkel in particular to adopt some of AfD’s islamophobic positions.
The real question is France, where the two strongest parties going into the 2017 elections are the center-right Les Republicans and the far-right Front national. It’s guaranteed that both parties will move on to the run-off for the French Presidential election. The scary question is which party is going to fare better in the run-off. That said, I think France will consolidate behind the center-right. Again, this is in no small part because Les Republicans have started to adopt some of FN’s islamophobic positions.
Democrats will win Governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey.
Trump’s win has people on the center and the left frightened and pissed off. If what I’ve seen in Oregon, or at least Multnomah County, is any indication, that fear and anger is translating into action and organization. I’m hoping that this is the case nationwide and not just where I live; if it is, then there’s a chance that we could start to see a dramatic reversal of fortunes in state and local races.
The first test of whether the Democrats can translate this energy into movement will come in two elections in 2017: the New Jersey and Virginia gubernatorial races.
New Jersey is a blue state that has spent eight years suffering under Chris Christie. Christie is enormously unpopular right now, and that is going to be a drag on the GOP. Right now the race is still shaping up, so there’s no polling that’s worthwhile.
Virginia is a barely blue state with a Democratic party that has turned the DC suburbs into a machine to win elections. As those suburbs expand, count on Virginia to move more reliably blue. The scant polling that’s out there indicates that the current Lieutenant Governor, Ralph Northam, has a comfortable lead in the Democratic Primary and would do well in the general election.
More important, however, is to keep an eye on how the Virginia Democratic Party fares in legislative races. Right now the GOP has a 66–34 seat advantage in the House of Delegates and the 21–19 lead in the Senate. I wouldn’t expect the Democrats to win back the House of Delegates, but if they have their acts together, they should be able to win control of the Senate. That’s going to be an important litmus test for how the Democrats do in 2018.
Richard Spencer will not be elected to Congress.
The appointment of Representative Ryan Zinke as Trump’s Secretary of the Interior means that Montana needs to elect a new Representative to the US House. Richard Spencer, a white nationalist figurehead most notable for his “Heil Trump, Heil The People” address in DC after the election, is considering a run for that office. He would almost certainly have the support of the white supremacists in Northwest Montana. That said, the Republicans have a deep bench, and I suspect they could come up with a half dozen stronger candidates. The Democrats are also confident about this race; I rate their chances more poorly.
The economy will slow down, with tech feeling it the worst.
There are several factors that point to an economic slowdown: housing inventory is running low and interest rates are going up. Gas prices are guaranteed to go up, and this could reinstate the choke collar effect we saw in the second half of the Nothing Decade. Economic sentiment is low despite increased consumer spending. All this tells me that the stock market bubble, which has been in play now for many years, is about to pop.
Tech is going to take the biggest hit, however, and this is for several reasons. Innovation in portable devices has hit a brick wall. Nothing is new in smartphones anymore, smart watches have gone nowhere, and smart glasses are a dud. There are other technologies that could be really cool, such as 3D imaging and 3D printing, but we’re going to have to see how a Trump administration that appears to actively hate computing is going to react. Additionally, the tech world, from the hottest Silicon Valley firms to the grindiest of contractors, has relied heavily on H1B visas, to the point of abuse. The Trump Administration is, if nothing else, anti-immigrant. I would expect H1Bs to see sharp cuts, and that’s going to mean a lot of experienced talent going back to India. Considering that a lot of H1B visa abuse has hit older tech workers, this may or may not be a good thing for local talent.
The State of California will sue to stop enforcement of federal marijuana laws.
Recreational marijuana in California is in a precarious place. Voters passed Measure 64 to legalize recreational pot, which will take effect January 1st, 2018. However, marijuana is still illegal as a matter of federal law. The federal government has declined to enforce those laws in states where marijuana is legal, and this has led to a legitimate marijuana trade in states like Colorado and Oregon, which has generated a lot of above-board economic activity — not to mention tax money.
Most of this is possible because the Obama administration issued a memorandum stating that they would not crack down on the marijuana trade when legalized on a state level. That lasts as long as the Justice Department doesn’t issue a memorandum overriding the current one. Trump’s incoming Attorney General, Jeff Beauregard Sessions III, is quite another matter, and once joked that he thought the KKK was alright until he realized they smoke weed. My guess is that he is going to issue a memorandum in the first 100 days of the Trump administration, informing the states where marijuana is legal, or is about to be legal, that the Federal Government intends to crack down on the marijuana trade. Goodbye medical marijuana, goodbye recreational marijuana, and goodbye state tax revenues.
Needless to say, the legal marijuana states are going to be very motivated to fight this. California is going to lead the way, because that’s what they’re pledged to do, but count on Colorado, Oregon, Washington, and Massachusetts to join the suit as well.
The Chicago Cubs will return to the postseason.
The Chicago Cubs team that broke the 108 year championship drought is young and mostly intact. I would be very surprised if they made it to the World Series again (and if they do, I will watch EVERY SINGLE PITCH), but I would expect them to make the postseason again.
Alabama will win the national college football championship.
They’re the best team in college football. Again. At some point, Nick Saban is going to retire, die, or achieve apotheosis. Until then, the Crimson Tide is going to remain a force of nature.
