I paid for Rasmussen and all I got was a lousy poll

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Sunday August 29, 2004 · 10:03 AM PDT

2004/08/29 · 10:03

It seems to me that Rasmussen is late in detecting trends. This was the case with Reagan TV, Edwards announcement, and the DNC. Perhaps due to bad methodology, or perhaps they parrot other polls. I paid $49 for this premium service, and it seems strange that the "daily tracking poll" is just now reflecting what the WSJ poll said three days ago, and Time said yesterday. Take heart, Spygate is just beginning, and I think in a few weeks we will all be breathing a lot easier. Hey, maybe a Bush 43 popular support result on Wednesday was replaced with a 49 from Thursday. So instead of a 43-49-49
track through Friday night, you get a 49-49-46 through Saturday. Thus, Bush goes from 47-48 even though he could be slipping. Read More

Kerry may gain big from Spygate -- if he is careful!

missouriclarkman

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Saturday August 28, 2004 · 10:36 PM PDT

2004/08/28 · 22:36

For those of you that do not know, for the past hour I have been ridiculed for a diary I did that was based on sources of the highest level of trust. That is fine. I would like to say that I did not intend to personally attack the Jewish peoples of the world, but that is not the subject of this diary. If I intimated that Jewish Americans were responsible or complicit in 9-11, that was not my intent and I apologize.
It does bring up a good point, though. John Kerry needs to repeatedly refuse comment on this story, for the perils of not doing so could alienate the Jewish base in Florida and hurt with swing voters nationwide. Why? Because as certain posters were only so willing to prove, any criticism of U.S.-Israeli policy can be spun as anti-semitism. Republicans would only be too happy to do this. I tried to make a reasoned well thought out and sourced case against Likud, and I was villified. If this is how Democrats respond, can you imagine how swing voters would react if even a whiff of anti-semitic suspicion surrounded Kerry? No, John best leave this one alone, and refer all questions to the investigators. I strongly suggest he say something like, "I do not think it appropriate to comment on an ongoing investigation, and I hope the President does not let this affect U.S.-Israeli relations negatively." Read More

Positive Poll Preview and Election Forecast

missouriclarkman

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Thursday August 26, 2004 · 9:59 PM PDT

2004/08/26 · 21:59

You watch. Kerry will be up 4-8 this weekend. He will GROW the lead through the RNC and keep it the rest of the way. Why? Simple. As Mattb25 has pointed out, Kerry has likely stabilized. He has also impressed upon voters his willingness to fight. Not over silly stuff, but his reputation. You see, Kerry is a veteran and Americans look at veterans like extended family. Most people believe Bush was behind the SBVT ads, and those same people believe those ads are false. Therefore Bush betrayed "THE FAMILY." There is only one thing for the electorate to do now. Turn a deaf ear to Bush. He is done. It will not be open minds so much as cynical hearts that follow the RNC next week. His bounce will be minimal and this race will be just about over. Kerry is now the admired one. The trusted one. This will show up in polls this weekend and from here on out. Read More

CNN poll-new numbers

missouriclarkman

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Thursday August 26, 2004 · 12:40 PM PDT

2004/08/26 · 12:40

Kerry up 48-47 among registered voters. Kerry appears to have succeeded in fighting back Bush. Now let's move on and kick Bush's butt out. Trends are clear. Polarized electorate almost jaundiced, and even though Kerry lost some ground in CIC question, maintains 48 percent support. CIC erosion was caused by flag waving Olympics, I think. I had a decent gut feeling about Gallup this time. I think Kerry will be up 4-8 by the weekend. LA Times poll was through the 24th. This the 25th. I computed Rasmussen the best I could and came up with these numbers: Monday : Bush 49 Kerry 43, Tuesday Bush 49 Kerry 49, Wedenesday: Kerry 46 Bush 43, thus totaling to Bush 47-46. If I am right, Friday's release could show Kerry ahead. I think Kerry is strengthening every day. Even Fox shows this when you compare to the LA Times poll. Remember, the Times showed Kerry ahead at Bush's strongest point in June: Reagan TV.

9-11 Response Collapse and Possible Bush or Rove Indictment

missouriclarkman

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Wednesday August 25, 2004 · 9:56 PM PDT

2004/08/25 · 21:56

What we know: Bush waited seven minutes upon hearing of the attack before leaving the classroom. He did not get in contact with any defense officials for a full half-hour after learning about them. Saudis named Bin Laden were given safe passage. WTC security people refused to evacuate after the first building was hit. And how do you explain Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld still being in his office at the time the Pentagon was hit? The highest defense executive not even being moved to a safe location? At the best for Bush, this was a totally inexcusable collapse in crisis response. The point is, John Kerry has to make this an issue. The collapse and failure of security and response is the DEFINITION of qulifications to be Commander in Chief. Read More

The Olympic Bounce and "Family Loyalty"

missouriclarkman

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Wednesday August 25, 2004 · 8:45 PM PDT

2004/08/25 · 20:45

Hey, stop panicking. The LA Times poll is mainly the result of the Olympics. What do you think will happen when you have two weeks of non stop flag waving, jingoistic, patriotic displays?
The Republican convention with gold medals, that's what. Temporary and fleeting soft support for Bush is reflected in the LA Times poll. I know this because higer support among Democrats is indicitive of nationalistic feelings. But guess what? As the truth of Bush lying about connections to SBVT sinks in, those patriotic feelings, while still simmering, will begin to boil against Bush. Why? Because people who drifted from Kerry because of the SBVT liars will feel guilt. Guilt about doubting a true war hero. Guilt that will make them despise Bush because he will have succeeded in duping them. In a sense, we Americans treat Veterans like family. When a normal politician is smeared, people do not care as much, but when your brother is smeared, and you fall for it, later realizing you were duped, you get hopping mad at the person that would dare split up your family. Read More

Time to back Edwards, or have we Dems lost our balls?

missouriclarkman

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Wednesday February 11, 2004 · 1:25 PM PST

2004/02/11 · 13:25

I offer congratulations to Sen. Edwards. In the end, he was just a better campaigner than Wes. He deserves his shot. And I, fellow Dems, will help him win. So will many Clarkies. I am not the type to do as the media tells me, and I refuse to SETTLE for John Kerry. His candidacy is a facade, a fraud, and he is fooling Democrats into thinking he is electable. John Edwards connects with people, and that gives him a kind of Clintonian teflon when Republican attacks come. Kerry does not have as affable a nature, and it will kill us in the end. When making your decision Dems, consider the South. Who has the best chance of beating the Republican nominee in the South? The answer is a no-brainer: John Edwards.

Balls the size of Vermont

missouriclarkman

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Friday January 02, 2004 · 7:44 PM PST

2004/01/02 · 19:44

Wow! Wow! Wow! What else can you say about Dr. Dean? 5 points down? Amazing. Clark better come up with some policy reasons to vote for him because the "I am the only one who can beat Bush" line is getting old. This is great news. We can't pop champagne yet, but it is encouraging. I admit to the world, I was wrong for criticizing him for his Saddam comments. What he did is essentially kill the Saddam issue as a campaign strategy for Bush. When the terror alert struck orange, Tom Ridge proved Howard's point. Now Bush can not campaign on the "Saddam's capture makes us safer bit." Not with credibility. Maybe we will win with if this tough little fellow with the gigantic balls gets the nomination. Like I said, us Clarkies best be putting out our policy messages, not our scare tactic rantings. Clark can still win, and I still support him wholeheartedly. But boldness wins elections. Time for Clark to be bold.

Less panic, more ass kicking

missouriclarkman

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Tuesday December 23, 2003 · 4:28 AM PST

2003/12/23 · 04:28

Enough! What short memories we all have. So Dean is down 55-37. Big deal. This poll shows Bush garnering 27 percent of black vote against Dean. Yeah, I really believe that. Give me a break. Figure historically high minority and base turnout people. For the Dems. In Dec. of 99, Gore was down anywhere from 12 to 18 points depending on the poll you looked at. And the thing is, people knew Gore. He had near 100 percent name ID. So it looked hopeless. It wasn't. Look, 45-60 percent don't even know much about Dean's policies, and he is still doing better than Reagan, Clinton, and Gore at this point in their respective runs. That tells me 2 things: anti-Bush sentiment and a strong interest in change. Hey, the door is cracked open for us to compete. The question is, do we have the balls to kick it off it's hinges to deliver the type resounding Democratic victory I sense the country is ready for?

Putting our party first

missouriclarkman

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Friday December 19, 2003 · 10:51 PM PST

2003/12/19 · 22:51

Taking the high road against your opposition is often the hardest thing to do. After Saddam's capture Dean and Clark did exactly that. For the most part, so did Bush. What troubles me is the visceral hatred I saw from Lieberman towards Howard Dean. Democrats can not afford the luxury of a circular firing squad. Lieberman and Kerry must go. He and Kerry have shown no interest in what is best for the party, or even the country. Only what is best for themselves. National polls talk about a surge for Joe, but if you look state by state, it is down to Dean and Clark. Supporters of the other 7 need to add to the debate in a manner that is both productive and respectful, and leave the hate and bile in the garbage where it belongs. We as
Democrats must grow up and face the real enemy with courage and resolve: George W. Bush.

Did Bush do the Unthinkable?

missouriclarkman

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Thursday December 18, 2003 · 1:48 AM PST

2003/12/18 · 01:48

Imagine you are the President in a Florida classroom and you get the news: plane crashes into WTC. Do you just sit there calmly? Or does at least your face change expression? Not if you are Bush. How would the words "The second plane hit the second tower," strike you? Odd. THE second plane? Were you expecting more than one? How about the fact that 90 minutes elasped between the first plane hit and the Pentagon? Every major building in D.C. is equipped to defend itself, yet a jet plane just casually destroys the anti-terrorism unit of the Pentagon. This is what has haunted me since that day. Is there fire? I don't know. Do you smell smoke?

Dem Veep to cause Republican nightmares

missouriclarkman

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Wednesday December 17, 2003 · 5:59 PM PST

2003/12/17 · 17:59

How about the Dem Veep? What anyone say about Rockerfeller, Graham (not my first pick) or Ventura?

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