Don't kid yourselves, guys. This went smoothly -- too smoothly. By now it is pretty clear that the spin about this being Bush's strongest debate subject was just that: spin.
We've all noticed that Bush's real focus since Iraq went sour has been to shore up his base. The people who were looking to be convinced tonight were the Andrew Sullivan conservatives like Daniel Dreznerand to some extent the Volokhs, and in a former life, Instawhoever.
By all accounts, in last night's debate, Bush didn't satisfy this (regrettably-small) demographic. His poor performance, though, was still perfectly acceptable to the non-thinkers who make up his base. What they want to hear is God, guns, and gays, with a side of terra. Expect Bush to deliver.
The simple truth is that the media discipline that the Republicans have developed over the last several years would not simply dissolve in the face of a poor debate performance. I'm convinced that Bush phoned it in at the first debate to lower expectations for the one he's really counting on.
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