Keep playing the expectations game

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Sunday October 03, 2004 · 6:32 PM PDT

2004/10/03 · 18:32

I'm as happy with the debate as you are, but we need to remember to keep it up-- not just the happiness but the tactical thinking. One of the reasons this debate had such an impact was that nobody expected Kerry to win this big. If the whole country expects the Veep debate and the two upcoming Bush-Kerry debates to be Dem blowouts, Bush and Cheney can "win" by not leaning on the podium quite as much and by using words of more than one syllable. We need to keep that from happening. So spread these memes far and wide:

(1) Cheney has prepared himself tremendously for this debate: he's got an incredible command of facts and numbers and details, which he will use to make Edwards look amateurish.
(2) Bush didn't study much for the first debate-- he came in overconfident. He'll be much better prepped for the next one!
(3) The town hall format, though it didn't favor his father, will make Bush look better than the podium head to head, because it will showcase his "empathy" with ordinary people.

Spread these memes! And remember to FREEP THE POST-DEBATE ONLINE POLLS.

By the way, the Bush campaign has started to remind me of the Los Angeles Sparks. (But is Kerry the Sun, or the Storm?)

www.youforgotpoland.com

pangolin

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Friday October 01, 2004 · 6:24 PM PDT

2004/10/01 · 18:24

Just the image so far but I hope they'll be putting up more. Watch that space, I guess. I wish there were a Daily Show tonight.

"9/11 state" state polls...

pangolin

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Tuesday September 21, 2004 · 7:08 AM PDT

2004/09/21 · 07:08

...anyone seen more than I have? Has anyone polled CT lately, or anyone other than ARG (last week) and SUSA polled MD? The Quinnipiac NJ poll's not as bad as it looks, though it's not good compared to Gore's numbers in NJ: 48-48 LVs (the results newspapers have picked up) but 47-43, advantage Kerry, in RVs: not so different from last week's Star-Ledger poll which put Kerry ahead 43-39. SUSA, which had Bush ahead (45-49) in NJ, now shows MD as a tie (in a poll which probably oversamples Republicans, but still caught more D than R respondents). Individually these numbers wouldn't bother me, but all together they suggest that states closest to 9/11 events-- MD, NJ, NY, and perhaps CT-- shouldn't be taken for granted. Nobody shows a Bush lead, or even a Kerry lead inside MoE, for NY, but NJ and MD perhaps give us work to do; I'm also worried about CT-- has anyone polled it since August? (Don't respond by telling me state polls don't mean very much six weeks out: I know, I know, I know-- but they do tell us where the party and its helpers, such as ACT, have work to do: I want to know that we're ready if the race turns out unexpectedly close in one of these states.)

Explaining the MN poll divergence

pangolin

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Thursday September 16, 2004 · 6:04 AM PDT

2004/09/16 · 06:04

Wondering how Kerry can be ahead in MN by 9 (LVs, Star Tribune poll), but also behind by 1 or 2 (RVs and LVs, Gallup/CNN and Minnesota Public Radio)? Here's an explanation which doesn't require conspiracy theory: a poll expert pointed this out on Minnesota Public Radio this morning, so I looked, and it checked out.

The Star-Tribune conducted its poll from Sept 7-14. Both Gallup/CNN/USAT and MPR conducted their polls from Sept 11-14, which means that Gallup and CNN both got half their sample on a weekend, and one-quarter of it on Sept. 11, a day when Rasmussen's daily tracker showed a big but transient shift to Bush.

That doesn't mean MN's in the bag: if the results were reversed we'd be crowing about how the Strib poll just caught the end of the RNC bounce, and the other two polls looked more accurate. Bush has been spending time and resources in the state, and he's been on the air a lot more here than Kerry: Kerry may really have slipped a few points over a week. But Kerry may really be ahead by a few points after all this: I hope to ignore the next polls, and I plan to work hard.

(I'm creating a new diary on this because the last diary on MN polls didn't get to it, and has dropped off most people's screens.)

New NM poll: Bush 45, Kerry 42

pangolin

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Sunday September 05, 2004 · 1:34 AM PDT

2004/09/05 · 01:34

Albuquerque Journal poll, taken Aug 27-Sept 1:
www.albuquerquejournal.com/elex/218536elex09-05-04.htm
The poll ended before Bush's RNC speech. Kerry is now net negative in New Mexico, with 42/47 fav/unfav; Bush is 48 fav/ 42 unfav. Lots of women and Latino undecideds, who ought to break for us; 32% of Latinos, 24% of Dems say they're for Bush: the Journal claims Rethugs usually need a quarter of each group to win statewide. Bush has made three recent visits to the state; Kerry and Edwards have been there, but longer ago. MOE=3%.

moving powell out

pangolin

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Thursday May 06, 2004 · 8:51 PM PDT

2004/05/06 · 20:51

News, but mostly a funny. USA Today (via TPM): Powell wasn't told of new Iraq funding request: http://www.usatoday.com/news/washington/2004-05-06-powell-funding_x.htm ...and when you scroll down past the end of the story to the automatic advertiser links, you get:

Powell Home Furniture
Search the entire Powell furniture collection and save.
www.Powell-Home-Furniture.com
[Any WMD in here?]

Powell Furniture
Discounted Furniture & Accessories Free shipping!
thefurnituredomain.com
[I hear his stock has gone down...]

Powell Furniture on Sale
Ships free, Low Prices, All models. Call us if you find a lower price.
www.Bedroom-Furniture-Direct.com
[Way down...]

Powell Furniture - Save
One Way Furniture Offers Powell Furniture with Free Shipping
www.onewayfurniture.com
[In case anyone named Powell plans a one-way move soon.]

looks like specter

pangolin

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Tuesday April 27, 2004 · 6:45 PM PDT

2004/04/27 · 18:45

link from Atrios to the Philly Inquirer: 61-39 Specter with over half the precincts in: http://www.philly.com/mld/philly/
Good news for moderates and moderations, or bad news (because it proves that the Rove GOTV machine works)? Or good news for Kerry, though bad news for Hoeffel, because the wingnuts might stay home in November?

JFK flipflop memewatch

pangolin

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Wednesday April 21, 2004 · 6:06 PM PDT

2004/04/21 · 18:06

The Washington Post editorial board chastises JFK for not saying now just exactly what he said in December (about stability in Iraq). Here's the WaPo piece, self-righteous and kinda ridiculous:
www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A29230-2004Apr20.html
Anyone feel like writing to set them straight? Man, I remember when that was a liberal paper. (I grew up reading it, too.)

Run for the MN state house!

pangolin

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Tuesday April 20, 2004 · 7:17 PM PDT

2004/04/20 · 19:17

Just got back from a MN for Kerry meeting (nothing went wrong, nothing stood out, went fine): apparently there are several MN House districts still lacking a challenger to an R incumbent-- if you live in them, run! A few (Owatonna) are safe R-- though you never know, and it's nice to make the bad guys play defense. Better yet, a few (Albert Lea, for example) are actually competitive-- one's even got a first-term (thus especially vulnerable) R incumbent. Interested? Live in greater (non-Twin Cities) Minnesota? Contact the folks at www.mn-house-dem-victory.com and see what happens-- this is the MN House Dem Caucus, and by the way, they do advertise on Kos. I'll look for the locales and district numbers for all the unopposed R's and post them here in a future diary.

NYT animation ad?

pangolin

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Wednesday March 31, 2004 · 11:54 AM PST

2004/03/31 · 11:54

Today's NYT web front page includes an animated ad soliciting Kerry donations. I thought it was cute, could have been worse, and could have been much better; given the recent debate about D-/F+ ads from that quarter, I'm very curious what web- and ad-world professionals (I'm not one) think.

Tom Schaller's in the New Yorker

pangolin

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Wednesday February 18, 2004 · 12:40 AM PST

2004/02/18 · 00:40

Current double issue, cover date Feb 16 & 23 (with a wonderful essay by Alex Ross in the back) leads Talk of the Town with a Hendrik Hertzberg piece: "As Tom Schaller, a University of Maryland political scientist, has pointed out, many Democratic voters themselves went through something close to Kerry's own fitful evolution..." Good for Hertzberg. And for Tom Schaller, of course.

state-by-state polls, anyone?

pangolin

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Friday January 30, 2004 · 2:02 PM PST

2004/01/30 · 14:02

Poll junkies, or just people focused on electability, may be looking for new state-by-state vs-Bush numbers around now. We've got 'em in the North Star state: http://www.twincities.com/mld/twincities/7829912.htm

In sum: Kerry 43, Bush 41 (but within MOE=4); W beats Clark by 5 and Edwards by 6 (but MOST Minnesotans have "no strong opinion" of those two) and beats Dean by 14. MN's a late caucus state (March 3), with no paid ads and not much free local media for our guys; as a result, Kerry seems to have taken over the sweet spot held by Generic Democrat in earlier polls. (He'd better go hunting on television regularly if he wants to stay there: Minnesotans outside the Twin Cities don't mind social justice, but they're deeply divided on reproductive choice, and they do like their guns.) W's numbers are 53 favorable, 47 un-, 49-40 favorable-un on Iraq, but 42-47 favorable-un on the economy. If Kerry (or Edwards or Clark) can get numbers like that in Ohio and Missouri, we're in business. Go Gophers!

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