I was playing around with the 2012 Electoral College numbers state by state and wanted to see how hard Mitt Romney's "path to Electoral College victory" really is.
So I took every swing state that had polls with President Obama less than 4% as of today (including all state polling as of 10/15/12 noon) and gave all those to Mitt Romney to see if he could still win.
I averaged the state polling for the last seven days to come up with the swing states average polling percentage.
I know everyone loves those big maps of the United States showing the electoral college vote state by state but I did something different with an old-fashioned spreadsheet.
No, I'm not a polling expert or a professional pollster but I've been analyzing spreadsheets back to the days of VisiCalc and Lotus123. This worksheet was completed in Excel 2010 and captured with SnagIt which I love to capture crucial images that I share.
The result was close but with Obama's "Western State Firewall" plus Ohio, my prediction is as of today that President Obama would still hold on for a tight win with 281 electoral votes to Romney's electoral total of 257.
Below the squiggle for my worksheet analysis. Remember this is a worst case scenario as of today.
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