Stepping back from the Palin trooper scandal and the mob scenes at McCain events, what in the larger picture is the most likely thing to throw the election to McCain?
I love wonky websites like 538. I can't get enough of their regression analyses, weighting criteria and inside-baseball look at the election. So, it shouldn't be surprising to see one of the most insightful, wonkful diaries there, written by Rany Jazayerli on the biggest danger to a Obama-Biden election:
...this is the month where dramatic late-breaking news can tip an election. In fact, given the sizable lead that Barack Obama has now opened up – roughly six points in the national polls, with a favorable electoral map – and the crystallizing of opinions among the electorate, it may be that only dramatic late-breaking news can tip this election.
So, what is the October Surprise that could tip the election to McCain-Palin? The answer is both surprising and obvious but no one is talking about it. Hint: McCain isn't going to be the one dropping the bomb if it comes and it is transparently predictable.
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