Senate Outlook
By Kos, Jerome Armstrong, and Stephen Yellin
Last updated (by Kos) July 16, 2004
REPUBLICAN SEATS
1. Illinois (Last update: 1)
Jack Ryan was forced out of the race once his sexual picadillos were revealed in his unsealed divorce records (though he still hasn't filed the paperwork to make it official). There was much talk about Ditka replacing Ryan, but Ditka refused once he realized he would have to surrender his lucrative endorsement deals. Various Republicans passed on the chance to get beaten handily by Obama. And Rove's choice for the GOP ballot line, Andrea Grubb Barthwell, likes to harrass coworkers with "lewd and abusive" behavior.
The question is not so much whether Obama will win, but whether he will have coattails at the House level.
2. Colorado (last update: 2)
Republican candidates Bob Schaffer and Peter Coors have gone negative on each other, while Democratic frontrunner Ken Salazar has relative smooth sailing against rapidly fading Mike Miles.
A June Denver Post poll has Salazar beating Schaffer 49-35 and beating Coors 47-40. Salazar raised $2 million in Q2 and had $1.6 million on hand, compared to $1.6 million raised by Coors and $437,000 by Schaffer.
3. Alaska (Last update: 3)
The latest polling in the race gives Democrat Tony Knowles a 46-44 lead, and Knowles outraised incumbent Lisa Murkowski (beneficiary of her father's, er, generosity). the NRSC ran anti-Knowles ads, and Murkowski's numbers dropped as much as Knowles'. Alaskan voters are in no mood for negative campaigning, and the perpetually sunny and optimistic Knowles is reaping the rewards in what is a heavily Republican state.
4. Oklahoma (Last update: 4)
No public polling since May, when Republican Tom Coburn and Democratic rising star Brad Carson were essentially tied. But since then, Republicans Coburn and establishment-backed Kirk Humphreys have been going hard after each other, with the Club for Growth throwing plenty of flames on behalf of certified wingnut Coburn.
However, if fundraising numbers are any indications, things are looking good for Carson. No Senate race in Oklahoma has ever cost more than $3 million. Yet Carson has already raised that much this cycle, including $1 million Q2 and over $1.9 million cash on hand. Coburn raised $718K in Q2 and has $365K cash on hand. Humphreys raised $572K and has $223K cash on hand. And Carson doesn't have to spend a dime during the primaries.
5. Pennsylvania (last update: 5)
After squeaking through his primary with Congressman Pat Toomey on April 27th (51-49), Senator Arlen Specter isn’t out of the woods just yet. Constitution Party National Chairman Jim Clymer is running for the seat now, and the track record for pro-life 3rd party candidates in this type of race is strong. In 1994, Peg Luksik (Con. Party nominee for Governor) drew 13% of the vote, almost costing Tom Ridge the Governorship.
Democrat Joe Hoeffel raised $1.1 million in Q2, which is respectable. Specter raised $2.3 million in Q2, after spending $15 million (!) to win his tight primary battle. More discouraging is Hoeffel's inability to raise his name ID, hurting his performance in the polls. The latest Q-Poll, from the second week in July, gave Specter a 50-35 lead, with Specter's numbers actually improvingfrom May.
6. Missouri (last update: 6)
No polling in this race since February
Incumbent Republican Kit Bond, who has made a career of being endangered and squaking through with narrow victories, raised nearly $1 million in Q2 and has $5.4 million COH. Democrat Nancy Farmer raised $750K in Q2 and has $1.2 million COH.
********* States below this line are safe GOP seats *********
7. Kentucky (last update: 7)
This race slips into the "Safe GOP" category this update. A June SUSA poll gave Incumbent Bunning a commanding 53-34 lead over Democrat Dan Mongiardo.
Mongiardo is also not having much luck fundraising, and has lent his campaign $500K boosting his COH to $700K. Bunning has $3.9 million COH. Economic issues might yet make this race competitive, but as it stands right now, this one is looking tough.
8. Ohio (last update: 8)
Democratic challenger Fingerhut reported a paltry $229K in Q2, and has yet to break $1 million. Republican incumbent George Voinovich has $5.6 million in the bank.
9. New Hampshire (last update: 9)
Democratic State Senator Burt Cohen quit his race just a day before the filing deadline after his campaign manager ran off with $200K in campaign funds. The best Democrats could come up with was the energetic Granny D (Doris Haddock), who at 94 might be inspiring, but hardly cuts an imposing figure against incumbent Judd Gregg.
10. Utah (last update: 11)
ex-AG Paul Van Dam will be the Democratic nominee against Senator Bob Bennett. An early-year independent poll showing Bennett leading 63-16 over Van Dam is a likely indicator of this race. I think Van Dam is a decent enough candidate to break 35%, but that’s about it.
12. Alabama (last update: 12)
Neither Ex-Governor Jim Folsom, Jr. or Don Siegleman filed to run against Senator Dick Shelby in 2004. That leaves Democrat Wayne Sowell, an NCO who supports marijuana legalization as the sacrificial lamb against Shelby (Democrat Johnny Swanson III was kicked off the ballot) Shelby should win big in 2004, in what will likely be his last term in the Senate.
13. Iowa (last update: 13)
ex-State Senator Art Small filed against Senator Chuck Grassley. His chances are even smaller than his name, as he’s raised less than $1000 so far. Expect Grassley to win big, with about 70%.
14. Kansas (last update: 10)
Kansas Democrats dug up this guy to lose against incumbent Republican Sam Brownback.
14. Arizona (last update: 13)
McCain as wildly popular, and whoever his sacrificial opponent is (three Democrats are running) will lose badly. If McCain somehow ends up as John Kerry’s running mate, things will get much, much more interesting.
15. Idaho (last update: 14)
Hell will freeze over before the Democrats have a chance in Idaho, and aware of the fact, none filed to challenge the unfortunately named Mike Crapo.
DEMOCRATIC SEATS
1. Georgia (last update: 1)
Not as much of a sure thing as the Democrats' Illinois pickup, but pretty close. A perfect symbol of the utter collapse of the Georgia Democratic Party.
The real Senate race in Georgia is the GOP primary. A runoff will include Congressman Johnny Isakson, but the other spot is a tough one to call. Congressman Mac Collins and African-American pizza entrepreneur Herman Cain are battling each other for the second spot. Isakson is having difficulty reaching out to the Christian Conservatives in the primary electorate, so the runoff will likely be competitive.
2. South Carolina (last update: 2)
SurveyUSA released a mid-July poll showing Republican candidate Jim DeMint leading Democrat Ines Tenenbaum 48-41.
DeMint, however, was the beneficiary of a name ID-boost from the just-concluded GOP primary. And the fundraising numbers are looking good. Tenenbaum has $2 million in her campaign coffers, while the primary-depleted DeMint has less than $100,000.
3. North Carolina (last update: 3)
A July Mason-Dixon poll shows Bowles maintaining a 10-point lead, 48-38, over Republican Richard Burr. Bowles is hammering Burr over the free trade issue, using NC’s job losses to his advantage. This will be a tight one, but second time should be a charm for Bowles.
4. Florida (last update: 4)
This race has multi-candidate primaries on both sides, so it's hard to get a handle on who the nominees will be, much less gauge the general election chances. Democrat Betty Castor leads in the polls, but Congressman Peter Deutsch (D) and Republican Mel Martinez lead in fundraising. The GOP has eight candidates in the race for this seat, and the Democrats three.
Martinez is Rove's favorite, though as a trial lawyer, he's becoming collateral damage in the whole "trial lawyer" smear campaign being waged against John Edwards.
5. South Dakota (last update: 5)
Daschle is the only incumbent Democrat in danger this cycle. This race leans to the well-funded Daschle, but expect Thune and the GOP to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the Senate Minority Leader.
5. Louisiana (last update: 6)
Breaux's retirement throw this from a safe seat to a tossup. While generally a conservative state, Louisiana Democrats have run the table on their Republican opponents the last two election cycles. While it may be too much to hope for a presidential pickup, state Dems have shown their ability to consistently beat the best the GOP can throw at them.
Given that all candidates in LA run in an open primary, it's hard to gauge each candidate's chances until the field is set. Republican Congressman David Vitter leads in the polls, courtesy of him being the only Republican running. However, the Democrats now have a third candidate in the race- State Rep. Arthur Morrell, Jr. Morell, an African-American, is bad news for State Treasurer John Kennedy, who was hoping to get into a December runoff based on liberal and minority support. Now, the advantage for the runoff goes back to Congressman Chris John, a centrist Democrat in the mold of Senator John Breaux.
**** States below this line are safe Dem seats *********
7. Washington (last update: 7)
Senator Patty Murray has the unfortunate potential to end up this year as the 2004 version of Max Cleland. She does have a big lead in the polls and in fundraising, but Congressman George Nethercutt could prove to be competitive.
8. California (last update: 8)
Senator Barbara Boxer should win fairly easily, Governator or not. Bush is deeply unpopular in the state, and the Republicans won't put money into this expensive state. An April 17 LA Times poll gave Boxer a comfortable 54-34 lead over Republican Bill Jones.
9. North Dakota (last update: 9)
More good news for the Democrats-the GOP ended up with a little-known attorney to challenge Senator Byron Dorgan. Mike Liffrig is his name, and landslide defeat is his fate. Dorgan is the easy winner here.
10. Wisconsin (last update: 10)
Russ Feingold has greatly improved his chances for reelection this time around, and so he’s likely to win reelection in 2004. No candidate matchups yet, but the GOP primary between State Senator Bob Welch, and millionaires Russ Darrow and Tim Michels will be fun to watch.
11. Nevada (last update: 11)
Senator Harry Reid gets the “Bullet Dodger” award in 2004 for avoiding at least 10 challengers whom could have been competitive against him. Now, with over $6 million in the bank and with four little-known GOP challengers running, Reid should do well this year. 55-60% is likely.
12. Arkansas (last update: 12)
The GOP’s only hope to be competitive against Senator Blanche Lincoln died when wealthy CEO Tom Fornicola did not file for the Senate seat as expected. That leaves State Senator Jim Holt and Benton County Sheriff Any Lee as the GOP’s likeliest nominees. Lincoln will have to brush off a primary challenge from activist Lisa Burks.
13. Maryland (last update: 13)
Mikulski leads sacrifical lamb State Senator and millionaire E.J. Pipkin by a huge margin in a recent indy poll. Best case scenario, Pipkin gets between 35-40%.
14. Connecticut (last update: 14)
Senator Chris Dodd will likely face ex-CEO Jack Orlucchi. Orlucchi has promised to spend a great deal of money on the race, so Dodd will not get to sleepwalk to reelection. Rather, expect Dodd to break 60%, but not much else.
15. Indiana (lat update: 15)
Frequent candidate Marvin Scott will go down hard against Senator Evan Bayh. Bayh, with a 70% approval rating, should cruise to another six-year term.
16. Oregon (last update: 16)
Senator Ron Wyden drew six GOP challengers-none of whom have a snowball’s chance in hell of beating him.
17. New York (last update: 17)
Senator Chuck Schumer may be running for Governor in 2006-if so, that race will be much harder than his current run. He’ll likely face Assemblyman Howard Mills, but with the Conservative Party line going to Dr. Marilyn O’Grady, Mills will probably get crushed.
18. Vermont (last update: 18)
Senator Pat Leahy is another safe bet. His opponent is yet to be determined, although Jack McMullen, who lost to a dairy farmer in the 1998 GOP primary, may end up as his opponent.
19. Hawaii (last update: 19)
Senator Dan Inouye is a Hawaii institution. He's not going anywhere until he decides he wants to be elsewhere.
Recommended
- As you’ve probably heard, Trump is claiming he can’t pay the $454 million bond for his fraudulent business practices in New York. The time has come for the State of New York to collect. I believe there is a right way, and a wrong way to go about this....216 comments 395 Recs
- The Biden administration announced sanctions on two West Bank settler outposts on Thursday (3/14/24). This is the first time that Israeli settlements, rather than individual settlers, have been hit with economic sanctions. These sanctions might seem...28 comments 149 Recs
- When your 'Allies' Sell Ammunition to Czechia for use by Ukraine Against your own Army -- Priceless!Ever wonder just who Czechia has been hitting up to buy artillery ammunition from for Ukraine? This report from RBC Ukraine and the WSJ has some potentially surprising answers: Czechia is using its Cold War contacts to obtain much-needed ammunition for...19 comments 92 Recs
- Big bavovna. A self-propelled howitzer goes bavovna. Electronic warfare is about more than just jamming the enemy’s drones. It’s absurd that Russia should be able to do this. The drone attack on the oil refinery in Slavyansk was a great success. More...49 comments 241 Recs
- The news that Trump cannot produce the $465 million bond needed to appeal the civil fraud judgment against him in New York has led to a collective nodding of sage heads — “We knew he was full of net-worth shit.” For proof, the financial solons of the...98 comments 244 Recs
- As many of you know (especially night owls or Kossacks in later time zones), Daily Kos is being regularly hit with spam diaries advertising towing companies. The ads are all similar, with a photo, a short blurb, a list of services offered, and contact...70 comments 113 Recs
- For the first time in record history, temperatures reached a scorching 144.1 degrees Fahrenheit. The Alerta Rio weather system reports what a temperature feels like, taking into account humidity combined with the actual temperature. Record keeping of...101 comments 250 Recs
- The NYT and rest of the mainstream media (MSM) are acting as if it’s business as usual. They think that subtlety (or not so subtley) bashing and catastrophizing Democrat's chances in November is ...171 comments 423 Recs
- People said Elon Musk might rescue him. Maybe Saudi Arabia—heck, Jarvanka could even shave off some of those sweet, sweet billions they got while working in the White House doing the kind of grifting Republicans claim Hunter Biden and his Pappy engaged...44 comments 114 Recs
- A couple of nights ago, I watched the filmed version of Heidi Schreck’s play What the Constitution Means to Me. It’s a highly recommended, thought provoking piece of theatre, a mostly one woman show in which Schreck recounts her experience as an...29 comments 122 Recs
- He can't make the bond! “The amount of the judgment, with interest, exceeds $464 million, and very few bonding companies will consider a bond of anything approaching that magnitude,” Trump’s lawyers wrote.461 comments 387 Recs
- Biden HYSTERICALLY ROASTS 'Mentally Unfit' Trump and Honors the Free Press at Annual Gridiron DinnerThe Gridiron Club is a renowned organization comprised of journalists and other media professionals that hosts a dinner every year featuring pundits and politicians delivering humorous observations of the state of the media and the nation. Among the...143 comments 751 Recs
Recent Diaries
- As we all know by now,� Donnie needs ~$464M, real quick. �And besides the fact that finding someone willing to pony up even $100M is rare so $464M is damned near impossible, finding anyone willing ...3 comments 2 Recs
- Our fur friends would like to remind us that recycling is good for the environment, and that includes them! sometimes it takes the form of art made of old stuff.7 comments 2 Recs
- The big excitement here on the front range was the snowstorm that started Wednesday of last week and finally ended some time after midnight on Friday morning. I went out around 3AM and there were no more snowflakes coming down, though I don’t know...4 comments 0 Recs
- Guest: Labor journalist, author Steven Greenhouse Also: Putin steals another election Trump tries to avoid coughing up $450M in NY... On today's BradCast: Given all of the ongoing madness, this story has not yet broken through all of the noise. But...2 comments 2 Recs
- We're committed to giving our clients the finest service possible, and we're always accessible to address any inquiries you might have regarding our offerings. So don't be afraid to call us if you require a tow truck or other form of roadside...10 comments 0 Recs
- So this past Saturday during yet another rambling, disjointed, bewildering "speech," the disgraced twice-impeached two-time loser former pres*dent Donald Trump cried out "If I don't get elected, it's gonna be a bloodbath. It's going to be a bloodbath...3 comments 8 Recs
- I subscribe to Roger Eberts newsletter. It’s not a newsletter from the dead, his wife has gathered many movie critics, and they do weekly reviews of new movies coming out. None are in the same category for sure, but it’s a good way to keep up with new...58 comments 20 Recs
- I’ll post more editorial cartoons and intertnet memes as I find them online. I’ll try to post Part 2 of this diary at some point tomorrow evening. Thanks for supporting this diary series. In case you missed some of my recent diaries, here are the...13 comments 17 Recs
- Boy, this is a big topic! From classics of Science Fiction through contemporary novel both highbrow and “popular”��there runs a common thread. It goes something like this: Humans are creatures ...4 comments 7 Recs
- W E L C O M E TO THE SHADE YOU WILL FIND in the DIARIES a LOT of POLITICS AND EVEN MORE CATS THE PERSON who MAKES the FIRST COMMENT WILL GET TWO CATS EVERY PERSON WHO COMMENTS WILL GET A CAT RULES IN THE DIARY WHEN YOU FIND SOMETHING in the DIARY that...144 comments 21 Recs
- The history of the West’s behaviour towards Palestinians is one of betrayal of legitimate hopes. The Husain-McMahon correspondence shows Britain luring the Emir of Mecca, Sharif Husain, into entering WW1 on the Allies side by promising falsely that...25 comments 3 Recs
- When your 'Allies' Sell Ammunition to Czechia for use by Ukraine Against your own Army -- Priceless!Ever wonder just who Czechia has been hitting up to buy artillery ammunition from for Ukraine? This report from RBC Ukraine and the WSJ has some potentially surprising answers: Czechia is using its Cold War contacts to obtain much-needed ammunition for...19 comments 92 Recs
- President Biden Made America Great Again * After Donald Trump nearly destroyed us. * Best economy in the world. Best economy ever. What is your slogan for this year’s campaign?16 comments 5 Recs
- All across the Western world, there is a great realignment happening, and working class voters are leaving the political left. This has been presented as irreversible, and even as the product of bad education, but the truth is, to borrow from James...7 comments 6 Recs
- It is not easy to tell people that they’ve become addicted. It is also hard to tell other people that they’re enabling that addiction. Supporters think they’re helping. They try their very best to prop up a person who is wrestling with a disease. It is...5 comments 4 Recs
- As many of you know (especially night owls or Kossacks in later time zones), Daily Kos is being regularly hit with spam diaries advertising towing companies. The ads are all similar, with a photo, a short blurb, a list of services offered, and contact...70 comments 113 Recs
- People said Elon Musk might rescue him. Maybe Saudi Arabia—heck, Jarvanka could even shave off some of those sweet, sweet billions they got while working in the White House doing the kind of grifting Republicans claim Hunter Biden and his Pappy engaged...44 comments 114 Recs
- The Biden administration announced sanctions on two West Bank settler outposts on Thursday (3/14/24). This is the first time that Israeli settlements, rather than individual settlers, have been hit with economic sanctions. These sanctions might seem...28 comments 149 Recs
- Share this, and contribute to the serious fun. Roo is qualified to run for prez; US citizen, only 50 in goat years, and she represents the Ridiculous Party who are putting forth a platform of plenty of treats and butting jerks with their horns,...6 comments 10 Recs
- A couple of nights ago, I watched the filmed version of Heidi Schreck’s play What the Constitution Means to Me. It’s a highly recommended, thought provoking piece of theatre, a mostly one woman show in which Schreck recounts her experience as an...29 comments 122 Recs