disclaimer:
I don't do this for a living or even a hobby. This is an educated guess based on my personal research and following the campaign news.
Here follows my prediction for the outcome of the OH 2nd congressional district 2005 special election:
I'll use the 2004 Saunders vote as a peak (but highly unlikely) turnout for [D] voters: ~90,000
Many of those voters turned out to vote for Kerry and/or against Bush. I think Schmidt's shoulder-to-shoulder stand with Bush will bring out quite a few anti-Bush voters for Hackett.
An extraordinary GOTV and publicity campaign will have paid off by increasing the number of [D] voters from the 2005 primary voters (~15,000) to 55,000 for the election.
I'll use the 2002 (mid-term) vote for Portman as a peak turnout for [R] voters: ~ 140,000
You won't get the mildly-pro-Bush/anti-Kerry [R] voters out for this one to tilt Ohio to Bush. (hence 2002 numbers vs 2004).
Schmidt won only 30% of the [R] primary vote. only 14,000 of 45,000 [R] primary voters ballotted for Schmidt.
I predict that a lot of non-primary [R] voters will not show up to vote because: (1) they are not impressed/energized by Schmidt, (2) scandel fatigue, (3) its not November.
I'll predict a 25% drop in the difference between 45,000 [R] primary voters and last [R] mid-term voters for EACh of the reason above.
95,000 (140,000-45,000) - (24,000 * 3) = 23,000
23,000 + 45,000 = 68,000 [R] voters
So we have 68,000 [R] voters and 55,000 [D] voters.
Here's where the race turns: I predict 1 in 10 [R] voters who show up to vote will flip to Hackett for any number of reasons. We've already heard of [R] voters approaching the Hackett campaign and expressing support.
final tally:
Hackett: 61,800
Schmidt: 61,200