The words 'Teddy Kennedy', 'Vietnam' and 'Quagmire' are enough to drive a perfectly sane and calm conservative hawk to an expletive laden explosion. However as we near the end of this whole episode, it's interesting to note the similarities, both inside and outside the country.
Pullback, troop reduction, honour intact - these are just some of the words being bandied about. A short historical tour of any American excursion in years gone by spits out one simple fact - 'BREAKUP'. Sometime back, I was having this discussion with a friend and this is what he said:
"An invasion by America is a happy time for the local population - half of it. After the dust settles, there's one half of the country with tall skyscrapers, shining lights, sleek cars, multinational companies and MacDonalds stands. Then there's the other half - Ruled by a despot, populace suffering in poverty and oppression, rampant corruption and an incredible degradion of human life and dignity. I guess that right now every Iraqi should be praying very hard that he lands up on the right side of the divide."
After this talk with my friend, I did indeed look into American incursions into foreign land and this is what we get:
Germany: West and East
China : China and Taiwan
Korea : South and North
There were a lot many more incursions, where there were no breakups, but those were either too small to breakup or we wasn't able to shake off the regime under the spotlight.
Thinking about all this, seems to me that the American might doesn't wipe out any of the 'bad guys' - They merely relocate the 'bad guys' and the 'good guy' zone becomes a mini-replica of the United States, at odds with the 'bad guy' zone. Not only does this leave a gaping wound open, but it also fosters enimity between the hapless populace on both sides of the divide, who would otherwise have been spending time drinking tea with each other.
Ok. Enough of background briefing. Let's get back to the hard reality on the ground in Iraq. We have the Shites and the Sunnis, who despite their centuries of clashes, managed to live as one nation in Iraq. To pour a little oil on the fire are the Kurds, who have their own problems with Turkey. Throw in Islamic extremists from all around the MiddleEast and Pakistan.
What you get is a bubbling cauldron of extremists fighting the American forces, while the strict and proud Islamic populace tumbles down the hill to a breakup, with no one at the wheel to put a brake on it. The 'Govt. of Iraq' is too busy lining it's pockets and fighting the extremists. The American forces are pretty busy at the moment trying to stay alive.
So what you get is 'regional control'. That means that if you're the local thug, you're in charge. Every province has it's own system of authority. Where the Shites are strong - like Najaf and Basra, the clerics control everything from the Market to the Police. Where the Sunnis have a majority, it's the extremists and the local 'polticos' who rule the land. In short, there ain't no law.
So, in the midst of all this, what happens if you take the Americans out of the equation? I'm sure the Pentagon has given this plenty of thought. However, their concerns are more with what will happen to the American forces when the next rotation comes round in a years' time and they don't have the numbers to even attempt a rotation. Any talk of Iraqi forces taking over and the country being able to manage itself is just an eyewash for "We don't have a choice. We got to pull out."
You'll notice that while the Generals and Senators who are in the field or who have some experience with this sort thing were saying that we need more troops, these were the people who were 'not in the loop' about the actual pathetic situation of the forces not being able to sustain the conflict beyond 2006. Right now, they're feeling a lot of egg on their faces, for not being on the inside, and demanding more troops, when it's now become public that we don't even have enough to sustain the current troop levels.
Where does this leave Iraq? The extremists will start declaring victory as soon as President Bush announces a withdrawal. They'll demand the populace treat them as victors and will start lording it over the whole pueblo, issuing edicts and chopping off heads. The clerics will gird up and issue calls to their supporters to stand against the extremists. While all hell breaks loose around them, The 'Iraqi Forces' and their lords the honourable 'Ministers', will be lording it over the oil and sucking dry any last vestiges of wealth and belongings from the people. Note that these are not people who have been in control for a long time. They're new to all this power and money, and they'll lap it up, like there ain't no tomorrow.
The Kurds will beat it back to 'Kurdistan' before the American might reaches back home. They'll figure it's better to go for a Kurdistan and keep what they have than get caught in the crossfire between the Baathists and the Clerics. So, let's say that after a vicious round of bloodletting that'll make the current insurgency seem like a walk in the park, all of them manage to sit down across a table and come up with a division of the spoils - We'll end up with three parts, or countries:
- A Shite country, which'll be worse than Iran in it's theocratic leanings. These guys will likely tell everyone from Saudi Arabia to Jordan to take a hike.
- Iraq - The country, including Baghdad and the surrounding provinces, which'll be pacified, in due time, and cleansed of all the 'extremists', with American money and 'assistance' of course, and which has very bright hopes of a lot of MacDonalds stands and a few skyscrapers. They have the advantage of not having the pesky clerics to stop them from having a good time and going 'American'.
- A Kurdistan which'll be dangerously close to being annexed by Turkey, but which also has bright chances of MacDonalds and sleek cars, on account of a few buckets of oil, which they seem to have in their possession.
To wrap it all up, if you're an Iraqi and you want to see girls wearing skirts or dancing in a club sometime in the future, stay put in Baghdad. If you manage to stay alive for the next five odd years or so, your kid will probably end up as an executive in the Baghdad branch of Intel or Motorola, eating a BigMac and guzzling coke.
Related Links:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6091356/site/newsweek/
http://www.duluthsuperior.com/mld/duluthsuperior/news/local/12153453.htm