On the eve of the second and final debate in the FL-Gov race,
Jim Davis clearly has old Mo on his side. A new
St. Petersburg Times poll shows the race too close to call.
Like many campaigns before his that have run from behind, there has been no end of suggestions and / or complaints from air chair campaign strategists on how to run the campaign.
After the jump, we'll discuss, and you can vote, on how beat Davis can close out this race with a Democratic victory...
Jim Davis has clearly been the dark horse in the general election campaign from the get-go. His Republican opponent, State Attorney General Charlie Crist seemed to have every advantage.
While Davis was busy refilling his depleted campaign coffers after an oft bitter and tightly fought primary, Charlie Crist was touring the state like a rock star. Crist was joined by term limited Governor Jeb Bush and the state's Chief Financial Officer Tom Gallagher, whom Crist had trounced in the Republican primary. Crist went up on the air immediately after the primary, while Davis remained dark for a month.
Davis did win one important contest after the primary. In Florida, party nominees choose their Lieutenant running mates. As the presumptive favorite, Crist picked a "safe" choice in Jeff Kottkamp, a conservative Republican State Representative from staunchly conservative South West Florida. Davis chose former state Senator Daryl Jones. Jones a gubernatorial candidate in 2002 ia a graduate of the Air force Academy and a former fighter pilot. He is currently a Colonel in the Air Force Reserve. And, oh yeah, if elected, he would become Florida's first African American Lieutenant Governor.
Meanwhile Charlie Crist, whose stated goal was to raise an unheard of $30 million for the general election campaign, continued his attempt to define Davis as just another liberal Democrat from Washington, and as a do nothing Congressman who had the second worst voting record in Congress this year. Davis has a lifetime voting record of 93% over his ten years in Congress, but Crist has continued to hammer this point both in his TV spots and in the first debate last week. So far, the polls have shown that Crist's attempts to define Davis have largely failed. Given the Crist campaigns continuance of this attack it is becoming clear that this attack line is designed to lower Democrats participation in this election.
According to most polls, Davis' positions on the three most important issues, Property insurance, property taxes and education reform, the positions of the Davis campaign are much more in line with the position of the voters than the Crist campaigns' position. Most outside observers have agreed with that assessment. Additionally, while outgoing Governor Jeb Bush remains personally popular, his administration has presided over the growing property insurance crisis and the shifting of the tax burden to property tax payers. Additionally, Bush has led the charge to reform education primarily through the use of high stakes testing. While most Floridians like the idea of school accountability, they are less than impressed with the methods used by the Republicans to achieve that aim.
To date, Davis' campaign ads have focused on policy differences with Crist. He has just come out with a pair of ads criticizing Crist for his "stay the course" approach and also for being less than proactive on some of hot button issues in Florida. Crist stayed out of the Terry Schiavo controversy and now says he opposed the Republican efforts to intervene. Similarly, Crist was a no show during the legislative debate on property insurance reform. Now he said he would have vetoed the bill that came out of the Republican dominated legislature on the last day of the session. The next day he backtracked from that veto pledge.
One issue that hasn't really been pushed by Davis directly is the shares our values question. Crist is a 50 year old single white man, who has no children and has never owned a home. In contrast, Jim Davis and Daryl Jones are both married men with children in public schools and are both homeowners. Davis often refers to himself and Jones as "just a couple of dads" on the campaign trail. However, the "shares our values" question has not been raised directly by Davis in TV spots or in the debate.
The poll question today deals with what course Davis should choose in the closing days of the campaign. Should he continue to primarily highlight the difference between his campaign and Crist's campaign on the issues? Should he step up the criticism of Crist as political waffler Should he directly take on the "shares our values" question. Remember, there is a huge rumor campaign under way that Crist might very well be gay. Or should he close out the campaign with a sunny outlook surrounded by his and Jones' families and stress his vision for Florida's future?
Here's your chance to be a campaign manager in a statewide campaign in a crucial swing state. What would you do?
Poll question corrected below.