It is a widespread delusion that the decline of Bush's popularity marks some kind of defeat for authoritarian militarism in the United States. But by every practical measure, the militarists have triumphed. The American "defense" budget is approaching historical highs, and is likely to be boosted further by the Democratic Congress. The "support the troops" meme is so powerful that thousands of young people are volunteering for the dirty neo-colonial war in Iraq. But the best evidence of the triumph of the militarists comes from the announcement that William Kristol has been named a featured columnist by Time Magazine. Most followers of the news know that Kristol has been conspicuously and consistently wrong about everything concerning the Iraq war, so what does this development demonstrate? Kristol, and his war-mongering colleagues, have floated serenely above the unpleasantness in Iraq and emerged victorious in the battle of ideas. How could this happen?
The fundamental explanation for profound anomalies in the selection of "opinion leaders" in the United States in the last decade is the ascendance of ideology over reason. This has been enabled largely by television. Whenever one sees Mr. Kristol's smug, toothy grin on TV, one knows that nothing will be argued seriously. Instead, Mr. Kristol will toss out a series of sophistries and talking points in a smooth, assertive manner that projects high confidence and the unlimited backing of wealthy patrons.
It doesn't matter that Kristol is objectively mistaken about events in the world, because on TV, dominance is achieved theatrically. As long as one posesses a smooth demeanor and a ready reply to all challenges, the audience is fooled. This is because the audience is largely unaffected by the policies that Mr. Kristol advocates. Except for a small fraction of the population in lower demographic sectors, few Americans are feeling any pain from Iraq. The war there is just something that is happening on television to other (poorer) people's kids.
Television loves war, and pundits who advocate war, no matter how mistaken and foolish, will thrive on television. Mr. Kristol unflinchingly recommends more ferocious American combat in Iraq, and Time magazine has recognized that he speaks for the winners in American society. The winners are those who have profited handsomely from the war while shielding their children from its dangers. They are the corporate elite and the plutocrats who own the United States government. An authoritarian, militaristic society, perpetually at war is a desirable environment for Mr. Kristol's masters. War and terror are good for media and keep the population excited and manipulable.
War-promoters like Bill Kristol will be discredited when war brings ruin to America. Because that day is considered distant, they continue to dominate the media. The fading of Bush is just the discarding of another worn out political tool, soon to be replaced. The ascendancy of Bill Kristol confirms who has won the battle of ideas.