Before I give my take on this, credit must go to Jerome Armstrong at MyDD for breaking this story.
The Raleigh News Observer reports today that the North Carolina state legislature is about to pass a bill that changes how the state delegates its electoral votes. NC would become the third state to table its winner-take-all system for a plan which delegates electoral votes by congressional district. The legislation is already through the NC Senate (D controlled) and received tentative support in the NC House (60 for, 49 against). If it passes the NC House, Governor Mike Easley is expected to sign it.
So what are the ramifications?
First, the positives (JMHO):
North Carolina has not gone Democratic in a presidential election since Jimmy Carter carried the state in 1976. Despite our recent gains, it is still a strong Republican state and one of the most important states in their electoral strategy due to its 15 electoral votes (only Texas, with 34 electoral votes, and Georgia, also with 15, are solid Republican states as large or larger). Splitting NC in the short-term will immediately flip at least four and as many as six of the fifteen electoral votes to the Dems. Two EV's would go to the candidate who won the state as a whole (the two extra EV's that every state gets).
Any state where the Republicans have an advantage in presidential elections can be diluted this way, but the Democrats must control the governor's mansion and both statehouses in red territory to make it work. We currently have the trifecta in at least three other red states (Arkansas, W. Virginia, and Louisiana...but the La. gov race looks bad for us right now). Arkansas and WV are a little less Republican federally than NC, so with a really good candidate we might not even need to change their systems.
Perhaps most intriguing is the effect on John Edwards. It is possible, although unlikely, that Edwards could win North Carolina outright next year (if he's our candidate...as an aside, an Edwards win in NC would lock up the WH for him anyway). The NC Democrats have made the calculation that the Democratic nominee in 2008 will fall short in their state. There is a slim chance that this could hurt Edwards because it would take several electoral votes away from him (because he'd lose solid red districts even through winning the state). There is also a good chance that the NC Dems do not think Edwards will be the nominee. Electoral vote splitting would help Hillary and Obama more because they have far less chance to win NC than Edwards.
Negatives:
The Repubs could turn around and split a strong Democratic state by winning the trifecta (Gov + both houses of the Leg). The chances of this happening in California, NY, and Mass are slim to none. However, a state like Michigan, which leans Dem, could be split by the Repubs in presidential elections if they elect a Repub governor and four Repub state reps in 2010 because the Repubs control the Mich. Senate and are four votes away in the state House.
Lawsuits could be filed arguing that a voter's rights under the 14th Amendment are violated by such a system. Believe it or not, this Supreme Court may actually find in favor of a person making such a case. Such efforts to change the Electoral College would be considered unconstitutional for a generation.