Clinton has been claiming all along that the momentum could still swing in her direction and she could somehow catch Obama in pledged delegates. Well, that all changes tomorrow.
From the pledged delegates awarded on Tuesday, if Obama wins 78 he will only need 25% of the vote across the board in all six remaining contests to clinch the pledged delegate lead. If he wins half or 94 out of the 187 pledged delegates awarded on Tuesday, he only needs 15% of the remaining votes to clinch the majority of pledged delegates. That is the minimum to quality for delegates. In other words, he only has to show up. The final six contests after Tuesday have 217 pledged delegates.
In order to clinch the majority of pledged delegates Obama needs:
94 of 187 delegates on Tuesday and 15% of votes in remaining six contests (85% for Clinton)
78 of 187 delegates on Tuesday and 25% of votes in remaining six contests (75% for Clinton)
62 of 187 delegates on Tuesday and 30% of votes in remaining six contests (70% for Clinton)
Obama needs 133 more pledged delegates. Full table by district below. Questions or corrections?
Sources: Wikipedia and The Green Papers
Key: AL is At Large and PLEO is Pledged Elected Official.
District Delegates 15% 20% 25% 30%
WV 1 6 1 1 2 2
WV 2 6 1 1 2 2
WV 3 6 1 1 2 2
WV-AL 7 1 1 2 2
WV-PL 3 0 1 1 1
KY 1 5 1 1 1 2
KY 2 5 1 1 1 2
KY 3 8 1 2 2 2
KY 4 5 1 1 1 2
KY 5 5 1 1 1 2
KY 6 6 1 1 2 2
KY-AL 11 2 2 3 3
KY-PL 6 1 1 2 2
OR 1 7 1 1 2 2
OR 2 5 1 1 1 2
OR 3 9 2 2 2 3
OR 4 7 1 1 2 2
OR 5 6 1 1 2 2
OR-AL 12 2 2 3 4
OR-PL 6 1 1 2 2
PR 1 6 1 1 2 2
PR 2 5 1 1 1 2
PR 3 4 1 1 1 1
PR 4 4 1 1 1 1
PR 5 4 1 1 1 1
PR 6 4 1 1 1 1
PR 7 4 1 1 1 1
PR 8 5 1 1 1 2
PR-AL 12 2 2 3 4
PR-PL 7 1 1 2 2
MT 1 5 1 1 1 2
MT 2 5 1 1 1 2
MT-AL 4 1 1 1 1
MT-PL 2 0 0 1 1
SD 1 9 2 2 2 3
SD-AL 4 1 1 1 1
SD-PL 2 0 0 1 1
Last Six 217 39 41 55 71
Tuesday 187 94 92 78 62
Total 404 133 133 133 133
Note: If there was an exact split such as at 25%, I used 25.001% instead.