I decided to take a crack at predicting the district-by-district results in Puerto Rico's presidential primary. While I do take into account the mayoral endorsements that I could find, I based my prediction largely on demographics. One of the two polls of the commonwealth suggests that college-educated or higher-income Puerto Ricans are more likely to support Obama than non-college educated or lower income voters.
Disclaimer: I could be totally wrong. All the numbers below the fold.
Senate District 1 - San Juan: The first district takes in all of San Juan and a portion of (relatively) wealthy Guyanabo. It has the second-highest black population at 15.3%, the highest percentage of students (10.8%), and the highest percentage of college graduates (28.7%) and individuals with graduate or professional degrees (10.3%). It also has the highest percentage of households with median income over $75,000 (9.1%). It is also the only district with six delegates, and Obama will easily win the 25% he needs to get two of them. If he can break 43.75%, he will split the delegates 3-3.
Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 3 delegates
Senate District 2 - Bayamon: This district has the highest median household income ($20,139) and the lowest poverty levels in Puerto Rico. Education levels, while not as high as in the San Juan district, are still well above average. The black population (12.2%) is about average for the commonwealth. Five delegates are at stake here, and Obama should get two of them. However, Clinton should carry the district and the third delegate.
Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 2 delegates
Senate District 3 - Arecibo: The is district has the lowest black population in Puerto Rico (6.2%), and the education and income levels are substantially lower than the commonwealth average. Obama does have the endorsement of two mayors in the district, in Arecibo and Dorado. The district has four delegates, and Obama need only reach the 15% viability threshold to claim one of them. He should do that comfortably, but he will have significantly more difficulty reaching the 37.5% needed for a 2-2 split.
Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 1 delegate
Senate District 4 - Mayaguez: High poverty, low education levels and a small black population (6.7%) give Clinton the advantage in this district. Clinton campaigned heavily in the district duing her last visit to the island. There are four delegates here, and she will take three of them.
Clinton: 3 delegates
obama: 1 delegate
Senate District 5 - Ponce: The largest district in the commonwealth looks like it may be Obama's worst. With a median household income of $11,662, it is the poorest in the commonwealth, and only 6.3% of residents identify as black. The Mayor of Ponce has endorsed Clinton, although he attended a rally in the city with Bill Richardson. Both of the candidates to replace him also support Clinton. Obama should still do well enough to secure one of the district's four delegates
Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 1 delegate
Senate District 6 - Guayama: This district, located on the southern coast of the island, is home to the largest share of residents who speak no English (44.0%). Less than 14% of residents have at least a bachelor's degree, which is also the lowest on the island. The district is not as poor as the neighboring 5th or even the 4th, and it is home to a larger black population (9.0%). This four-delegate district should vote heavily enough for Clinton for her to win 3 of its 4 delegates.
Clinton: 3 delegates
Obama: 1 delegate
Senate District 7 - Humacao:
The 7th district is demographically similar to the island as a whole. Income levels in the district are slightly below average for the island, and the district's black population is slightly above average (11.7%). Obama should benefit from mayoral endorsments in Humacao, Caguas, and Yabucoa, which together should cast about half of the vote in this district. Clinton needs to win by 25% to carry 3 of the 4 delegates here.
Clinton: 2 delegates
Obama: 2 delegates
Senate District 8 - Carolina: This is the most heavily black district in Puerto Rico (21%), and it has the highest proportion of residents who either speak English at home or speak English "very well" (33%). Income and education levels are above average. Obama has mayoral endorsements in Loiza and Carolina, as well as the endorsement of a community organization on the island of Vieques. This is a five-delegate district, so Obama should be able to break the 30% threshold required to win 2 delegates. I think he'll actually just break the 50% mark and take three of five delegates here.
Obama: 3 delegates
Clinton: 2 delegates
At Large & PLEO: The winner of the commonwealth will take at least 10 of the 19 unpledged delegates. The thresholds for additional delegates are 54.2%, 62.5%, 64.3%, 70.8%, 78.6%, and 79.2%. I predict a result around 60-40, and thus the following split:
Clinton: 7 at-large delegates, 4 pledged PLEO delegates
Obama: 5 at-large delegates, 3 pledged PLEO delegates
That gives us a final delegate split of:
Clinton: 33 delegates
Obama: 22 delegates