There's been a ton of talk recently about the so-called "Bradley Effect," how many white voters will lie and claim to support a black candidate when, in reality, they do not. It's based on LA mayor Tom Bradley's run for Governor of California, and the huge spread between the polls that predicted his victory, and his ensuing defeat. There's a ton of reasons why the Bradley Effect occurred back then in California, but I have a lot of ideas regarding why it may be far less of an issue in this election.
MORE BELOW THE FOLD....
The obvious reason for a decreased "Bradley Effect" is that times have changed. Is racism still an issue? Obviously. It's a major issue in this country, even though it may rear its head differently than it did 20 years ago. There's racism endemic in the nation's structure, and it'll take a long time to undo. However, we have seen a change in attitudes over time, and more black candidates have been elected to office in non-majority-black districts. This is a definite change from the past.
Secondly, and perhaps more importantly, we have to look at the voters for whom the Bradley Effect would apply. These are non-black voters who will claim they support a black candidate, but in the voting booth will vote for the white guy. Why will they do this? The most logical answer is community pressure. These are individuals with racist tendencies who live in an environment where it is not acceptable to demonstrate even subtle racism.
Now, let's break that down further. Among people with this type of racism in play, there are likely many who are in denial even to themselves, so wouldn't they simply be able to come up with some other bogus reason to convince themselves they're voting for McCain? Thus, they wouldn't be dealing with the issue of telling their friends and community that they're backing Barack but secretly voting for McCain. I think this is a somewhat likely scenario. They hide their racism behind experience, or whatever...and then they can say they're voting for McCain, basically in deep denial.
On top of this, where would the Bradley Effect apply? Likely in areas where racism is frowned upon - more progressive areas. In progressive areas, Obama is trouncing McCain, regardless of any racial issue...so the Bradley Effect won't have much of an impact to begin with. The few white voters afraid to discuss the fact that they are voting against Obama on racial grounds will be canceled out, and more, by thousands of voters of all backgrounds backing Obama.
In conservative and swing states, this is less of an issue, and in addition to the group discussed above (i.e. the voters who make up bogus reasons to vote McCain), other voters backing McCain for racist reasons will openly say it. So you don't have the issue of voters saying they're backing Obama but secretly supporting McCain.
Just a few thoughts running through my head. Hope this was useful.
PSD