At 7:00 PST, the full results of the ASU poll (AZ-Pres) will be released. At a speach today, Arizona State University pollster Bruce Merrill stated the top line:
McCain 46%, Obama 44%
Update #1
A comment has provided a link which has more detials about the poll:
http://www.azpbs.org/...
Also, there is a comment regarding the ground game. We must keep in mind three factors.
- McCain has not had a real contested election in years. He never needed and did not think he would ever need a ground game in Arizona.
- McCain and Obama both have 2 effective offices. While both have 3, one of McCain's is a dedicated regional office and one of Obama's is actually a Democratic party office.
- Governor Janet Napolitano (D) has a better ground game than anyone in the state. Of all people, she controls the outcome of the AZ race
My source for this is:
http://www.azcapitoltimes.com/...
While AZcapitoltimes requires a subscription, I was able to access this page (and only this page) without one. The main component of the sotry is here:
In a presentation to a civic group today, Merrill said his poll will show McCain leading Illinois Sen. Barack Obama by only two percentage points, 46 percent to 44 percent.
The survey of more than 1,000 registered voters, which was conducted over the weekend, has a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Also stated:
Only 38% of those who support McCain think that he will win.
I will update if/when I get more results at 7:00pm