I will in this diary use two sets metrics to show that Reid is as the numbers stand today in better shape then most polls are predicting based on early votes.
Early vote brake down:
43,5% D
41,2% R
15,3% I
total number of early votes: 417488
the number of people who have voted in Nevada early thus far is 417488 that is 71,2% of 2006 midterm elections total vote. so essentially most of would be Nevada votes are already in.
what we now need is information regarding the percentage of the democratic republican and independents that each candidate is getting in order to determine how much vote each one has banked so far.
according to this CNN poll says that while Reid is receiving the support of 10% of the republicans 93% of Democrat's support and 38% of the independents votes, Angle is receiving 6% of the democrats and 53% of the Independents and 82% of Republicans support.
Reid's presumed total votes banked would be: 417488*(0,435*0,96+0,412*0,1+ 0,153*0,38)= 215816,2467 or 51,7% of the votes casted
Angle: 417488*(0,435*0,06+ 0,412*0,82+ 0,153*0,53)= 185794,7 or 44,5% of the votes casted.
this means that Reid would have 30k+ net votes banked according to this model. That is 5% of the total 2006 midterm votes in Nevada or 7% of the thus far casted votes.
If turn out in Nevada is like 2006 that means Angle must be +5% on Reid to win on election day. .... polls have her at +4% as of today...it is close too close for comfort that is why we need to help Reid to get the votes out.
if you apply the CNN poll brake down of votes that are already in, in Clark and Washoe county Reid has 54,3% of those votes are likely Reid votes.