There is this one funny fact about Presidential power when it comes to shaping legislation:
The President is nearly powerless to shape legislation (no, stop, don't roll your eyes and go back to the main page, hear me out).
Take everything you've heard from the media and pundits and even our own little bubble of group think -- look at the actual powers given to the President.
Below I will explain why I believe that the Tax Cuts for Millionaires is the first real test of Obama's will.
(1) The President has the power to submit legislation to congress for consideration.
* This sounds neat, but remember that once legislation is dropped into the house, it belongs to the speaker. The speaker will assign it to a committee (and may assign it to a committee that will simply kill the bill dead right off), decides if and when any bill returned (and edited) by committee will come up for a vote in the house, and generally controls the entire flow of building on whatever the President presents to congress.
(2) The President has the Bully-Pulpit.
* That is, he can come and speak to us. Please examine the current rec list for a brief analysis of how much President Obama can shape legislation by speaking on it.
(3) The President may Veto
* This is real power, but it is negative. If the President wants to kill a bill, or is willing to kill a bill to try and force congress to reshape the bill, he has that power. But this power is limited, because when a President is working with Congress in a collaborative fashion (i.e. when Congress is controlled by his "allies"), when a bill is mostly what the President wants but not perfect, or when the President is not confident that the parts of the bill he likes will survive without the parts he dislikes, the veto becomes useless. It is a power to prevent, not to create, and it can be used to shape only to the extent that the President's willingness to destroy the legislation in question is actually credible.
It is now commonly argued (hotly contested of course, but widely argued) that Mr. Obama is some form of weak cowardly craven fool who dosen't know shit about getting legislation out of Congress... as expressed by a whole rack of failed legislative goals.
For Example:
Obama signed the first major bill to offer any substantive changes to our healthcare system since Medicaid was enacted. Medicaid was first enacted in 1965, 55 years ago. Presidents Bush II, Clinton, Bush I, Regan, Carter, and Nixon saw their Presidencies come and go without making a substantive change to our health care system, though many tried. Finally, after months and months (and long long f-ing months) of argument, debate, cajoling, pleading, praising, damning, and finally voting - President Obama got a healthcare bill on his desk.
Now, you can argue (and I do), that the Healthcare bill SUCKS, that it contains far too much watered down half-measures, and none of the bold solutions (public option) that would have actually been Game-Changers for the medical sector.
But, step back -- don't analyze this from the results, analyze this from the question of power. What power did Obama have to shape this legislation? He could have submitted his own draft legislation -- this would have been one clear target for the Republicans to assault all-at-once and trash immediately. It may not have been politically wise to leave the bill out there in the Senate where the forming bill was watered down and shot up and still (of course) lambasted and targeted by Republicans -- but this was a question of tactics, not power. The President clearly stated at the outset what he wanted out of the process, a public option, a 50 state exchange program, and a number of other important policies.
Here Mr. Obama got his ass handed to him.
But, then again, what do you expect. The President dosen't have an affirmative power to move legislation along. He has threats, he has the pulpit, but he can't reach in and change language or force Mr. Baucus to stop whining and hold a vote. The U.S. Congress is a peer of the Presidency. They look to him and dictate the legislative language they want. Obama had one choice -- veto the bill, or accept what he got.
He got a bill.
Now look at DADT, the DREAM act, Climate change, over and over the president got up and used the Bully Pulpit. Over and over Mr. Obama told the U.S. Congress what he wanted in the legislation. But the Congress, not the President writes the bills. Over and over the Senate, bitching and griping right along, refused to act.
The President has no authority to force the Senate into action. The President has no tool to move these bills along. His office is, fundamentally, impotent by design in the face of the Congressional prerogative to select the bills which will receive votes, and those that will die.
But now we come to a different matter all together. Now we come to Tax Cuts.
Here's the great thing about Tax Cuts, the Republican leaders have already said that if we won't give them all the cuts they want, they will take just the tax cuts that Mr. Obama will give them. Here, finally, we have a place where Obama can apply the negative power of the Presidency. Congress wants the tax cuts for all Americans. President Obama knows this, we all see this to be true. If Mr. Obama vetoes the Tax Cuts for Millionaires, this matter won't end -- the Republicans will be left with a choice, try to find enough Democratic turncoats to break a supermajority 3/5ths of the members of one house to break the veto, let the bill die, or change the bill to conform with presidential will.
Here, finally, and for the first time in his Presidency, Mr. Obama has the power to say "No. This will not pass."
Now, for the first time in his Presidency, Mr. Obama can actually ACT to make change, rather than speak and pray and hope that Congress will stop screwing around.
Mr. Obama, show us your strength of will. Veto any bill that includes Tax Cuts for Millionaires. Do not allow them to roll you on this first test going into a new Congress with even more obstructionist small government dicks in power. Stop them cold. Show us you know how to win.