In
Pt. 1, we introduced the concept that a rapid surge in population toward, then past, the ability of local water supply to meet demands is coincident with much, although not all, of the ongoing major conflicts in the present day.
In Pt. 2, we uncovered that this association, spurious or not, generates a list of aggressor/victim countries that corresponds closely to the core theaters of the Second World War and that the evolution of the trend across the decades maps, albeit imperfectly, the slow migration of war 'climate' across the globe, drawn toward (or driven by) conditionsof high population growth on the verge of overcoming ecological constraints. Not all wars (Vietnam, for example, Angola for another) are captured by this simple model; that any of them are, for such a wide coverage of geography and history, is compelling.
In Pt. 3, we will make forecasts for the first portion of the 21st century.
Projected Embattled Countries, based on Water Scarcity Model, 2000-2060
Rank..2000.........2010.........2020.........2030.........2040.........2050.........2060.........
1.....Kuwait.......Singapore....S. Arabia....S. Arabia....S. Arabia....Cuba.........Niger........
2.....Gaza Strip...S. Arabia....Yemen........Yemen........Yemen........South Africa.Guatemala....
3.....Chad.........Yemen........Singapore....Oman.........Oman.........Thailand.....Nepal........
4.....Uganda.......Oman.........Oman.........Gaza Strip...Chad.........Korea, North.West Bank....
5.....Eritrea......Gaza Strip...Gaza Strip...Chad.........Uganda.......Turkey.......Turkmen'stn..
6.....Mauritania...Somalia......Chad.........Uganda.......Gaza Strip...Vietnam......Brunei.......
7.....Comoros......Jordan.......Jordan.......Singapore....Ethiopia.....Brunei.......Mali.........
8.....Benin........Maldives.....Uganda.......Eritrea......Comoros......Malawi.......Cote d'Ivoire
9.....Iraq.........Chad.........Eritrea......Comoros......Eritrea......Reunion......Vietnam......
10....Sudan........Gambia, The..Comoros......Ethiopia.....Somalia......Korea, South.Albania......
11....Burk. Faso...Kuwait.......Mali.........Jordan.......Mauritania...Azerbaijan...Maldives.....
12....Syria........Qatar........Mauritania...Somalia......Kuwait.......Mexico.......Reunion......
13....Afghan'stn...Uganda.......Kuwait.......Mauritania...Nigeria......China........Gambia, The..
14....Burundi......Senegal......Djibouti.....Kuwait.......Djibouti.....Kenya........Taiwan.......
15....Ethiopia.....Mauritania...Ethiopia.....Djibouti.....Burk. Faso...Moldova......Sudan........
16....Tanzania.....Eritrea......Somalia......Tajik'stn....Burundi......Sri Lanka....Senegal......
17....Djibouti.....Libya........West Bank....Nigeria......Tajik'stn....Poland.......Iraq.........
18....Togo.........Comoros......Tajik'stn....Burk. Faso...Tanzania.....Rwanda.......Macau S.A.R..
19....Pak'stn......Cote d'IvoireLibya........Burundi......Jordan.......Iran.........Philippines..
20....Yemen........Djibouti.....Nigeria......Gambia, The..Benin........Jamaica......Malawi.......
21....Philippines..Burk. Faso...Gambia, The..Mali.........Swaziland....Mauritius....Swaziland....
22....El Salvador..Iraq.........Afghan'stn...Afghan'stn...Mali.........Nepal........Syria........
23....Tajik'stn....Benin........Burk. Faso...Tanzania.....Gambia, The..Turkmen'stn..Mexico.......
24....Oman.........Sudan........Burundi......Benin........Afghan'stn...Lesotho......Benin........
25....Kyrgyzstan...Ethiopia.....Benin........Libya........Senegal......Ghana........Somalia......
Discussion
Think it's bad now? Through the 2040s, the Middle East will be the primary focus of warfare, and it will get worse.
Iraq will recover from the current onslaught, oh, about 2013 or so; Afghanistan will fare better, in time left to its preferred pastime -- infighting among rival warlords. Whether it is by ballots or by bullets is their decision alone.
An acute crisis in the Holy Land is already in progress with the combination of the Gaza Strip withdrawal and the death of Arafat. There will be high expectations on the Arab side of Israel backing down a few notches. There will be equally high expectations on the Jewish side that Palestinian factions will behave themselves, since (per Sharon) all the terror bombings were being orchestrated by Arafat all along.
My guess is that this empasse will cause a scare, and a whew! that was close! sort of solution will patch up Arab-Israeli relations for another decade or so.
After that, the issues of overcrowding and water starvation of peoples and economies alike will be back in play, only later the conflicts ill be removal of Jewish settlements, now cities, in the 2020s and 2060s, respectively.
This will be against the backdrop of fullblown civil unrest in Arabia -- all of it -- in the 2010s if not sooner, with this series of interventions and ultimate revolutions spilling into the Levant. This is where the real campaign will begin, leaving Iraq a relatively fond memory.
The prospect of a full-scale war in the Holy Land in this generation is quite high.
Farther afield, in the vast Sahel band across the middle of Africa, Muslim-Christian violence magnifies as more (and more advanced) weapons pour down the gullet of misery; here is where the jihads and the crusades return; Darfur is but a precursor to incursions into Chad, Uganda and Ethiopia, the latter of which are countries that have the will and means to fight back.
West Africa persists in a semianarchic malaise, though the specter of holy war becomes earnest starting about 2020 and continuing for about a generation afterward.
The general trend in global warfare through the middle of the century is both southward (in the global economic sense) and across the heart of the Islamic world, where population growth rates are current among the highest in the world (a grisly consequence of HIV's impact elsewhere).
Countries reaching that threshold now or in the coming decade are probably in real trouble, not having time to plan around the coming crisis. Some of these countries are well-recognized; Sudan, Afghanistan, or sad friends in Iraq. Others are kept to the margins of news awareness, but are in grave danger (or pose grave dangers), nonetheless: Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Yemen, Syria, Oman, even recently-coopted Libya is not safe from the Red Horseman.
Reminder - these countries are not on this list because of religious affiliation; they are there because the model indicates they are in ecological deep do-do, and this same model rated the various nations of both east Asia and central Europe as vulnerable to war for the year 1940.
But what of later? What countries have time to adjust, countries that, if they act now, can save themselves from the Red Horse's hooves?
The list is presented above, but countries of critical concern to current (and presumably future) American interests will be Cuba, South Africa, Thailand, both Koreas, Turkey, Vietnam, Mexico, China, Poland, Iran, Guatemala, and Taiwan (assuming it's still non-sovereign, non-unified).
That some of these countries are potential theaters of conflict in addition to our current portfolio of wars should not be overlooked for a moment.
Nor should the United States' own power and (one prays, one hopes) foresight to act not as the Germans once did -- seeking to kill the coming generation of enemies before it is even conceived, and midwiving those enemies in the bargain -- but instead seeking to change the parameters toward controlled and sustainable population.
Building the foundation of a new and truly global civilization is as much within the reach of American power as is the thoroughly-demonstrated the ability to lay waste to civilization.