With new polling out over the weekend and today, the evidence continues to mount that bolsters two developing themes of the 2012 election cycle: Mitt Romney is looking more and more unbeatable in the Republican primary, but Mitt Romney is also looking more and more beatable in the general election. Far from being emboldened by his widening lead in the Republican presidential sweepstakes, Romney appears to be increasingly weakened by the primary process. That phenomenon was highlighted earlier today by my colleague DemfromCT.
And, here are the raw numbers that help buttress the argument, starting with the primary elections data:
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Romney 38, Gingrich 24, Santorum 18, Paul 14
NATIONAL (Gallup Tracking): Romney 35, Gingrich 24, Santorum 16, Paul 12
COLORADO (PPP): Romney 40, Santorum 26, Gingrich 18, Paul 12
MINNESOTA (PPP): Santorum 29, Romney 27, Gingrich 22, Paul 19
Finally, the kicker: the improving numbers for Barack Obama in the battle for re-election in November:
NATIONAL (ABC/Washington Post): Obama d. Romney (51-45); Obama d. Gingrich (54-43)
NATIONAL (Rasmussen): Obama d. Romney (49-42); Obama d. Paul (50-38)
NEW HAMPSHIRE (WMUR/UNH): Obama d. Paul (50-42); Obama d. Romney (50-40); Obama d. Santorum (56-35); Obama d. Gingrich (60-35)
A few thoughts, after the jump.
While much attention has been paid today on the ABC/WaPo poll (and some fairly weak tea pushback from Team Romney), all three general election polls in tonight's Wrap speak to the continued dimunition of Mitt Romney as the GOP primary slogs along.
New Hampshire, seen through the eyes of the WMUR/UNH poll, is an interesting case study. New Hampshire just gave Mitt Romney a fairly decisive win less than a month ago in the Republican primary. But now, in the first polling out of the Granite State since the "first in the nation" primary, WMUR/UNH finds an incredible reversal: Barack Obama went from an 8-point deficit in October to a 10-point lead today. What's more: the president has enjoyed a 20-point net swing in his approval ratings in New Hampshire, going from 41/53 to 51/43.
This speaks to continuing theme in this past month: as the Republican primary has continued to play itself out, Barack Obama continues to look better and better when compared to his Republican rivals. We see a similar trend with Rasmussen (which has the president at a 50/48 approval spread) and with the ABC/Washington Post poll. Take that ABC/WaPo poll: in today's release, Barack Obama was at a net +4 on job approval (50/46). Those are his best numbers since shortly after the Bin Laden incident, and a vast improvement over his numbers just four months ago, when the president was languishing at a net minus 12 (42/54).
If the Republican primary forges onward, it is hard not to see that as a boon for the president. The focus on the GOP combatants doesn't seem to be hurting him, and might be helping. Meanwhile, it looks like Mitt Romney (still the most likely man to emerge from the GOP clown car) is not wearing well over time with the electorate: twice as many say that they like him less the more they know than say they like more the more they know.
Tomorrow marks the first multi-state race of the cycle, albeit composed of two caucus events (Colorado and Minnesota), and a nonbinding primary in Missouri where Newt Gingrich won't even be on the ballot. Early indications are that we may be on the cusp of another new "anti-Romney" surge candidate, as Rick Santorum looks to take Missouri and has a better-than-even shot at Minnesota. And then ... for most of February ... silence. Maine's protracted caucus process ends later in the week, and then we go through the longest period without a contest of the primary calendar, with nothing pending until Arizona and Michigan head to polls on February 28th. Can Santorum do enough tomorrow to make himself the undisputed alternative? Does Romney get dinged at all tomorrow, or does he cruise through the dead period of February essentially unchallenged? What happens to Newt?
Tomorrow could answer a lot of questions, but it can just as easily raise new ones. Tune in tomorrow to Daily Kos/Daily Kos Elections to find out.