While others are looking for a potential bounce for Romney after his convention or at least a narrowing of the gap between him and the President, Nate Silver shows Obama with a widening lead going into the Democratic convention. In fact, these are the best numbers Obama has received on the site since it began its daily forecasting in early June.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...
This is where Nate sees the race as of September 1st:
Likely electoral vote outcome:
Obama 305.0
Romney 232.5
Chance of winning:
Obama 73.1%
Romney 26.9%
Popular vote total:
Obama 50.9%
Romney 47.9%
Now, why does Silver seem so bullish on Obama? Part of the reason is that he factors far more than just poll numbers into his equation. Much of it is based on economic factors and the last few days have seen the release of some pretty decent numbers when it comes to the stock market, retail sales and housing.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/...
Another reason is that he bases his numbers on expectations. For example, since the average post-convention bounce is 4 percentage points, if a candidate does better than that then he assumes the lead may indeed be real. But if it is less, it probably means the lead is not real, or at least unlikely to last long, so the benefit actually accrues to the other candidate.
Nevertheless, for whatever reason, these numbers are both comforting and encouraging as we head into the fall season.
4:55 PM PT: Hey, everyone, thanks for the recs.
I should also add that Silver has Obama winning most of the swing states, including Florida, though that one narrowly.