The fight against Boko Haram has intensified in Nigeria, with Cameroon, Chad, Niger and Benin all contributing military forces in an effort to stem the extreme Islamist group's campaign of terror.
Since it first made its presence known in 2009, Boko Haram have killed nearly 15,000 in their quest to establish their own Islamic caliphate in the northern regions of Nigeria. And on March 7th, the terrorist group formally announced their allegiance to the Islamic State, or ISIS, fuelling fears for some that West Africa may soon play host to Boko Haram's Middle-Eastern counterparts. ISIS soon accepted their pledge.
Military operations against Boko Haram have been making headway in recent weeks, with the most recent offensive by Niger and Chad forces successfully liberating the Nigerian towns of Malam Fatouri and Damasak.
This intervention of foreign military forces mark Boko Haram's growth, from being a chiefly Nigerian problem, to their current status as an increasingly regional concern. This foreign involvement is also testament to the Nigerian government's difficulties in settling the Islamist insurgents themselves, a fact which has become a political talking point in the elections set to take place in only a few weeks.
Presidential candidate General Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressive Congress (APC) has accused his incumbent opponent, President Goodluck Jonathan, of a “lack of leadership,” specifically in relation to issues of national security and Boko Haram.
While President Jonathan has made great strides economically, securing Nigeria's place as the largest economy in Africa, he does not have the strong image enjoyed by his opponent, the ex-military General Buhari. But while Buhari benefits from his reputation as a forceful leader, this reputation also worries many. Buhari is much more than simply a former general, he is also a former dictator.
In 1983, Buhari seized power from a democratically elected government through a military coup. He held the presidential seat for 20 months until he was eventually ousted by a coup himself in 1985. And though he currently presents himself as a “converted democrat,” many remember his time in power as one of severity, marked by human rights violations and the restriction of freedom of expression.
For both candidates the ongoing war with Boko Haram is of great political importance. And though the offensive against the jihadists is making progress, there is also a threat of violence emerging from the elections themselves.
In the 2011 elections, the news of Buhari’s loss to President Jonathan led to a campaign of violence perpetrated by Buhari supporters and partly instigated by the General himself. The events culminated in the death of 800 people, the majority of whom had been targeted for being from Jonathan’s ethnic group. There is a concern that similar events could take place surrounding the elections this year. What’s more, in order to avoid claims of election rigging, Nigeria has implemented a tough biometric system and has issued individual voter cards.
Between the fighting against Boko Haram in the North, and the fear of terror arising among the electorate, issues of violence and security have taken center stage in Nigeria. So much so that these two issues caused the elections to be postponed in order that the National Security Services might guarantee a greater military presence the day of the vote.
As the APC has already threatened to form their own government should they suspect foul or fraudulent activity during the elections, Nigeria faces a very real threat of a split government. And as a nation already separated into a majority Muslim North and a chiefly Christian South, the country is in no need of further divisiveness.
The election date, as last reported, is still set for March 28th; and there is no doubt that as Nigeria heads to the polls, the world will be watching.