Politico has a Morning Consult poll out. At 7 AM this morning they posted Exclusive poll: GOP voters want the party to stand by Trump.
We read in that story that
Overall, fewer than four-in-10 voters -- 39 percent -- think Trump should end his presidential campaign, while only slightly more voters, 45 percent, think he should not drop out.
But voters are largely viewing Trump's comments through their own partisan lens: 70 percent of Democrats say Trump should end his campaign, but just 12 percent of Republicans -- and 13 percent of female Republicans -- agree.
we also read this:
Nearly three-quarters of Republican voters, 74 percent, surveyed on Saturday said party officials should continue to support Trump. Only 13 percent think the party shouldn’t back him.
There was little change in the 4-way horse-race numbers, with Clinton leading 42-38-8-3 with 9% undecided, and she also leads in the head to head 45-41.
They quote political types as saying it takes several days for the video to sink in and have its effect.
What is interesting is that all respondents were shown the video — not clear from the story if it was edited or the raw language was heard unedited. They were also shown Trump’s belated “apology” video.
A 74-percent majority of all voters had a negative reaction to the video – including 47 percent who said their feelings were a zero (very negative). But there’s a partisan element to voters’ reactions to the video: 69 percent of Democratic voters said they had a very negative impression after watching it, but only 22 percent of Republicans gave it a zero rating. Ten percent of Republicans said the video gave them a positive feeling.
An even sharper partisan dynamic exists when voters were asked whether the video gives them a more or less favorable impression of Trump. Among all voters, 61 percent say it makes them feel either somewhat or much less favorable toward Trump, while 28 percent say it doesn’t affect their view of Trump; 8 percent said it makes them feel more favorably toward Trump.
But just 48 percent of GOP voters said it makes them feel less favorably toward Trump, while 36 percent said it doesn’t affect their opinions of Trump.
And there is this cautionary note offered for those Republican officials now moving away from Trump:
Fewer than a third of voters are willing to give greater consideration to a candidate who un-endorses Trump.
There is a lot more in the story, but I have already pushed fair use. I do suggest reading the entire piece.
Now some commentary.
First, this was a one-day poll, and that can distort its representation of the population being surveyed, which is why most scientific polls have a 2-4 day window to allow for call-backs (although this is an online poll).
Second, by its very nature this poll excludes those unable to watch the video online, although what affect that has on the polling is uncertain. I will note the 4 point margin being shown is several points below the recent average of 6-7 points among scientific polls released in the past few days.
For those who may have been seeing the video(s) for the first time, they may not yet have fully decided how it affects their decision. We know from anecdotal evidence that a lot of male Republicans, elected and operatives, moved more aggressively from Trump only after hearing from females in their family, on their staffs, etc. People who have not yet had a chance to discuss with others may not yet have fully formed reactions.
Even so , the poll showed almost half — 48% — of REPUBLICAN voters saying that they came away with a less favorable view of Trump. I would suggest that would make those voters much more likely to be influenced by further examples of gross or what they would consider unacceptable behavior by Trump. That makes the stakes for him tonight exceedingly high. It also makes him even more vulnerable to further examples being released, as we already have in CNN’s release of audio from a series of appearances on Howard Stern.
Republicans are not alone in saying that they expect that there is more material damaging to Trump going to be released in the near future. Some are acting as if they know the contents.
Further, for better or worse, those who have either now un-endorsed or demanded that Trump get out of the race cannot easily retract those statements. Even were there no further releases, the damage has been done, and my own guess is that we are seeing the start of outright civil war within the Republican side of the political spectrum.