Oil makes money. Oil is also necessary in order for money to be made. That is the position that the United States finds itself in. We are the world’s third largest oil producer. Russia is a close number two and Saudi Arabia is still number one. We are the world’s largest consumer by a long shot---we use twice as much as our closest rival in consumption, China. And we use twice as much as we pump, meaning we have to import. Most of the other high producers are relatively low consumers. Meaning that our country is in a unique position to influence oil prices. If we stop pumping, world prices go up. If we increase our consumption, world prices go up. And due to our huge military and even larger military budget, we have the ability to disrupt oil production by other countries, which also can influence the price we pay at the pump.
So, if you run a country whose economy is oil based---like Saudi Arabia or Russia ----you want to control the United States. This is why the Bush Family was courted by Saudi Arabia. It is why Putin loves Donald Trump.
Under the Bush family, the strategy was to limit the ability of certain countries to produce or sell. The War with Iraq. The attempted coup in Venezuela. The attempted War with Iran that the Pentagon vetoed during the second George W. Bush administration. And also to increase consumption at home and abroad by denying climate change and by discouraging the development of alternative energy sources.
Indirectly, the United States affects demand for oil in Asia, since we import so many goods from that part of the world. Taken together, China, Indian, Japan and South Korea consume more oil a year than the United States. And their growth curve—their rate of oil consumption is rising much faster than the U.S. leading some to judge the growth in the Asian markets---particularly China---as more important for world crude prices than demand in the United States.
However, in the last few years, China has shifted. It is now consuming less oil---and creating more. And, if the reserves in the South China Sea are tapped, China could drop from the ranks of oil consumer and become a major oil exporter to the rest of Asia. Which won’t hurt the United States much---a very small part of our wealth comes directly from oil sales and all that cheap crude will help the rest of the economy--- but it will cripple Russia. Especially since Russia has now replaced Saudi Arabia as China’s biggest oil supplier.
So, if you are Putin, who is dependent upon Asian oil demand for your political survival, what can you do to hold on to power at home? You must stop China from achieving energy independence via the South China Sea. However, at the same time, you must remain on friendly terms with China, since they are a most valued oil customer. And, if possible, you need to shut out the competition for China’s business. How do you work this magic?
You hand pick the next president of the United States. You make sure that he makes sure that China does not feel safe investing in any huge, costly South China Sea oil venture. You don’t actually have to go war. A lot of tough talk and some US war ships in inconvenient places will make China put drilling plans on hold. However, if necessary, war it will be. Because China and the rest of the Asian market cannot be allowed to become energy self-sufficient---for Russia’s sake, not for the good of Asia or the United States. An energy self sufficient Asia with a rich U.S. market for its goods equals prosperity for both continents---and famine for Russia.
How do you hold Trump to his promise to do something as stupid as start a war to prop up the price of someone else’s oil? You bring Exxon back to Russia and let it share in the prosperity. Exxon will make sure that Trump keeps Putin happy. Because a happy Putin will be a happy Exxon---and to hell with the rest of us.
In my diary yesterday, I read the tea leaves----Trump’s tweets, bits of PR tossed out here and there---and came to the conclusion that Putin selected Trump to stop South China Sea Drilling. Today, I decided to do the math, to double check what the tea leaves were telling me. And it all adds up. The links below have the statistics.
en.wikipedia.org/...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_consumption
www.weforum.org/...
www.marketwatch.com/...
www.rt.com/...
https://sputniknews.com/business/201608071044034738-china-oil-saudi-arabia-russia/