Hello, everyone. Good morning, afternoon or evening, and welcome to this edition of Notes from South Asia. You can find all the articles in the series here (along with my other diaries).
Today I will cover parliamentary election in India and Maldives and party politics and provincial governments in Nepal.
India
A Choice Like No Other
Today is the first of the many election days of the 2024 Indian parliamentary election, which is typically conducted in a phased manner. The election will start on 19th April and end on 1st June with vote counting and announcement on 4th June. It may seem like just another election to some of the populace, but to Muslims, minoritised people and some of the rest of us, it is clear that this election is probably the easiest and perhaps the last chance we have to arrest the slide of the country into authoritarianism and majoritarianism.
Whereas we may still strive to bring the country (and the region) back from the abyss in future, if the Hindu Nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and allies win 2024, the situation would become extremely difficult if not near impossible to resolve. It is easier to protect an inclusive democracy than to bring a country back from authoritarianism or majoritarianism.
Easier does not mean easy though.
Sajjad Hassan writes for Scroll on the subject: Is the 2024 Lok Sabha election India’s last chance before the point of no return?
To fully grasp the end-goals of Hindu nationalism or Hindutva, it is necessary to read its foundational texts. There are none more seminal than We or Our Nationhood Defined (1939) by Madhav Sadashiv Golwalkar, who led the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh from 1940 to 1973.
The Sangh is considered the heart and soul of the vast network of Hindu nationalists organisations, of which the BJP is the political wing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, a life-time member and former official of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, credited the organisation for grooming him to political leadership.
In his text, Golwalkar writes of his wariness of “hostile elements” within the country that “act as menace to national security”, singling out Muslims as the number one threat, followed by Christians. His solution to “the danger of a cancer developing into its body politic” was offering the “foreign element” two options: “Either to merge themselves in the national race and adopt its culture or to live at its mercy so long as the national race may allow it to do so, and to quit the country at the sweet will of the national race.”
Another of the movement’s foundational texts is Essentials of Hindutva (1923) by Vinayak Damodar Savakar, who is considered by many to be the foremost Hindutva thinker. In Essentials, he provided Hindu nationalism with an ideology, which in a nutshell claims that India was special as it offered something nobody else could – Hindu thought. This unique Hindu supremacy, Savarkar believed, was under threat because of the presence of non-Hindus.
Savarkar called on Hindus, fragmented as they were, to unite and reclaim their supremacy. Violence against Muslims, Savarkar said, was the means to achieve that goal.
Golwalkar drew on Savarkar’s thoughts. He also admired the race theories of fascist Germany and Italy and recommended that Hindusthan, the land of Hindus, should profit from their lessons. In We or Our Nationhood Defined, he wrote: “To keep up the purity of the race and its culture, Germany shocked the world by her purging the country of its semitic races – the Jews. Race pride at its highest has been manifested here.”
Golwalkar saw the world in apocalyptic terms. His objective was clear: “To rule over the world was the heavenly task ordained to Hindu race.” He called upon Hindus to “rally to the Hindu standard, the bhagwa dhwaj [and] set our teeth in grim determination to wipe out the opposing forces”.
As he points out, many leaders affiliated with Hindu Supremacy have already called for making eliminating Muslims from Hindu history and society, and have organised hate congresses against Muslims in different cities in Northern India.
If you need more evidence for where we are headed, then there is this. Watch this documentary from reporter Fatima Khan and Quint to see what is being done to the state of Uttarakhand.
Where Is Environment in All This?
Given the existential crisis facing Muslims, Christians and other minoritised people in India, environment has, as usual, taken a second or last place. Aruna Chandrashekhar writes for Carbon Brief about the different parties’ climate policies.
This year, climate change is mentioned in all national party manifestos published so far, along with commitments to promote renewable energy and, for the first time ever, critical minerals. For example, the BJP and Congress manifestos both emphasise working towards achieving net-zero by 2070.
The BJP manifesto promises the country “energy independence” by 2047 – a century since India achieved independence from the UK – through “a mix of electric mobility, network of charging stations, renewable energy production and improving energy efficiency”.
The BJP also sets out a 500GW renewable energy target – although it does not specify when this goal would be met. If voted in again, the Modi government says it plans to achieve this through setting up “mega” solar and wind parks and a clean energy corridor, with aims to turn India into a global renewable energy manufacturing hub.
It also emphasises scaling up bioenergy and green hydrogen production, developing small modular nuclear reactors and incentivising private investment in large-scale battery storage.
In the run-up to the elections, Modi has already announced a rooftop solar scheme and promised farmers in the critical election state of Uttar Pradesh to turn India’s sugarcane belt into a biofuel belt.
However, while the BJP’s manifesto pledges to support India’s automobile industry transition to electric vehicle manufacturing, it fails to mention coal even once or to outline how heavy industry will be decarbonised, beyond its existing Green Credit Programme.
While it outlines its commitment to meet India’s still-unclear carbon sink target, the BJP’s manifesto is silent on the forest rights of Indigenous communities, unlike Congress, which promises to set up a national mission to guarantee their rights and to stem deforestation.
In an election where unemployment is set to be a key voting issue, Congress pledged a “Green New Deal Investment Programme” and a “Green Transition Fund” in its manifesto. Congress pledges to generate millions of jobs in renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and mining critical minerals. Its renewable energy plans lack specific targets, but remain strongly focused on decentralised power and job generation in rural India, with incentives for village councils and farmers to set up solar grids.
Congress is the only national party promising to increase allocations to India’s National Adaptation Fund and wants to create an independent environment authority akin to the US Environmental Protection Agency.
Both Congress and CPI have promised to look into landslides caused by floods that caused severe crop losses last year and to reverse “anti-people” amendments to India’s forest and environmental laws made under the Modi government.
The CPI is the only national party to explicitly mention coal in its manifesto, calling for unexplored private coal blocks to be returned to state-run Coal India, to reduce India’s dependence on coal imports and a judicial investigation into “fraudulent” imports by private companies.
Similarly, it is the only party to pledge a participatory “just transition plan” to protect communities and coal workers “affected in the process of transitioning to renewable energy from fossil fuel[s]”.
CPI is a pretty marginalised party though. Anyways, I don’t know how much policies would change from party to party, but I think INC could be slightly better; provided people continue to hold them to account. We can push them to a reasonable position too. We have no such option with BJP.
Not that it matters. An environment friendly fascist party is still a fascist party. Fascism must be resisted in all its forms.
Maldives
Parliamentary Elections
Maldives is also looking at elections now that Ramzan is over. The elections are scheduled for April 21. Aishath Shuba Solih from The Edition has a breakdown of the electoral scene.
With the approaching conclusion of Maldives’ 19th legislative term on May 28, 2024, the country has been gearing up for its fourth multiparty parliamentary elections. The terminal scene of the electoral campaign overtakes the country amid these conclusive days with electoral debates permeating daily discussions.
These crucial final moments that will dictate the outcome of the country’s legislative scene for the next five years are dominated by election headlines that hastily informs voters on the latest campaign updates of the eight political parties engaged in the race alongside the 368 candidates fielded for the 93 constituencies of the 20th People's Majlis.
CANDIDATES PER POLITICAL AFFILIATION
- People's National Congress (PNC): 90 candidates - dominates the party affiliated candidacy numbers in this race
- Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP): 89 candidates
- Independent: 130 candidates - remarkably eclipses the electoral scene with the highest numbers
- The Democrats: 9 candidates
- Adhaalath Party: 4 candidates
- Maldives Development Alliance (MDA): 4 candidates
- Jumhooree Party (JP): 10 candidates
- Maldives National Party (MNP): 2 candidates - lowest number of representatives fielded by a party in this election
The article gives details of constituencies, the need for parliamentary majority, and the candidates and party behaviour. PNC is the party in power.
A factor that could potentially fracture the vote base further is the PNC's breakaway faction People's National Front (PNF), led by former President Abdulla Yameen. PNF affiliated candidates contesting, albeit officially as independents, against the ruling party, whose concentrated efforts overturned the former elections in PNCs favor, has also thrown voter loyalties into question.
The Democrats, a breakaway party from MDP, formed owing to inter-party dissent ahead of the presidential election has withdrawn two of their candidates from the race, with those contenders imploring their supporters to cast ballots for the PNC-backed candidates in concerned constituencies, distinctly hinting at an alliance.
Corruption Accusations
Press Trust of India (PTI) report in the Hindu states that Maldives President Muizzu faces corruption charges from the opposition thanks to a leaked report.
Ahead of the parliamentary polls in the Maldives, the Opposition parties have demanded a probe and impeachment of President Mohamed Muizzu following the leaked report of his alleged corruption from 2018, a charge dismissed by him.
Elections to the Majlis are to be held on Sunday and the atmosphere has been vitiated by the trading of charges between the main Opposition the Maldivian Democratic Party (MDP) and Mr. Muizzu’s People’s National Congress (PNC).
Local media reports have highlighted that the political storm started on Monday with an anonymous handle ‘Hassan Kurusee’ posting on social media X leaked intelligence reports, including documents prepared by the Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU) of the Maldives Monetary Authority and the Maldives Police Service that allegedly linked President Muizzu to corruption.
“These reports, dated circa 2018, claim irregularities in money transfers to President Muizzu’s personal bank account, highlighting 10 critical red flag indicators of financial misconduct. These indicators suggest involvement with politically exposed persons, embezzlement, structured transactions, and the use of corporate entities to hide fund origins,” news portal Maldives Republic (mvrepublic.com) reported.
Court and Politics
Al Jazeera reports that Maldives High Court has overturned former President Abdullah Yameen’s conviction.
A court in the Maldives has overturned the conviction of former President Abdulla Yameen and cancelled his 11-year prison sentence.
The High Court said on Thursday that his 2022 trial had been unfair and ordered a new trial.
“The lower court ruling was not fair,” Judge Hassan Shafeeu said while reading out a lengthy decision that was broadcast live.
The decision was made three days before the Indian Ocean archipelago nation holds a parliamentary election, in which Yameen is fielding candidates from a political party he formed while serving his sentence.
Yameen was convicted on two charges when a court found he had accepted a bribe to grant a lease on an islet for tourism development while he was in power from 2013 to 2018.
Thursday’s ruling set that verdict aside. The high court overturned the prison sentence due to procedural irregularities and ordered a lower court to restart the trial on charges of bribery and money laundering. Yameen is also on trial for separate bribery charges at the court.
Yameen’s co-accused Yusuf Naeem, a businessman who was said to have paid the alleged bribe of $1m, was also freed.
Yameen, 64, had been held at the high-security Maafushi Prison but was transferred to house arrest the day after his ally, Mohamed Muizzu, won presidential elections in September.
For now, the President’s party seems to be in a strong position.
Nepal
Provincial Politics
The Kathmandu Post editorial talks about problems forming government in a couple of Nepal’s provinces.
At a glance, their claim seems to be true: No provincial government is a stranger to coalition culture and the cycle of making and breaking governments. In this cyclical process, there is one province or another undergoing a coalition problem at any given point in time. The latest such provinces are Koshi and Sudurpaschim, and they are certainly not going to be the last.
The current series began with Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal changing his government bedfellows just a year after settling down with the Nepali Congress. While the new coalition is now up and running at the centre, the provinces are now showing the ripple effects. This adoption of the coalition culture of the centre was never the intent of federalism. This arises from a paucity of political morality among the contemporary political parties in Nepal, especially those at the centre. Each of the three main parties—the Nepali Congress, the CPN-UML and the Maoist Centre—is working behind closed doors to outdo the other. Coming to the fray is the small fish—Madhav Nepal's CPN (Unified Socialist), punching above its weight.
On Thursday, the Unified Socialist, with just four members in the 53-strong Sudurpaschim provincial assembly, took home the chief ministerial post. Dirgha Sodari was appointed the chief minister with the support of various parties: Maoist (10), UML (10), Nagarik Unmukti (2) and Independent (1). Such a travesty of democracy is unthinkable in political culture with even a paraphernalia of morality. But since a party with just 32 members leads the government in a 275-strong government, Socialist's greed does not appear an anomaly. The Socialist using Sudurpaschim as a new bargaining chip at the centre also does not look out of place considering the lack of morality among contemporary political players in Nepal.
It appears that coalition changes at the federal/central level is affecting politics in the provinces. In India, many states have regional parties that take care of regional aspirations and act as a check on the centralising instinct of national parties. I suppose Nepal does not.
Purushottam Poudel has more to say on the subject.
The Koshi government is again in trouble. After the UML and the Maoist Centre withdrew their support, Chief Minister Kedar Karki lost the majority in the assembly. The two opposition parties in Koshi asked him either to prove his majority in the provincial assembly or resign. But he has been defying.
As the UML-Maoist coalition staked their claim to form the government in Koshi, Karki has been trying to stick to power. The opposition parties have demanded a special session of the assembly but Karki has written to the Speaker against that.
Experts said that such problems arose due to political leaders’ tendency to control provincial affairs from the centre.
“Our political leaders are using provincial governments as a power-sharing platform, frequently inviting this kind of problems,” former National Assembly member Khim Lal Devkota, who is also an expert on federalism, said. “If a new alliance forms again at the centre, the provincial governments will face the same problem immediately.”
One and a half years since the November 2022 federal and provincial elections, the provincial governments have seen many ups and downs. The instability in central politics has made provincial governments unstable every time.
The changes in provincial governments was triggered by the March 4 move of Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal when he ditched his coalition partner Nepali Congress to form a new alliance with the main opposition the CPN-UML and three other parties including the CPN (Unified Socialist).
Party Politics and Education
Another Kathmandu Post editorial writes about eliminating party politics from educational institutions. The Ministry of Education plans to crack down on partisan political activity from teachers and staff.
For far too long, Nepal’s educational spaces have been the playground for political parties to expand their cadre base. Almost every major party has a fraternal organisation in schools and universities, and teachers are often seen spending time in political rallies and meetings rather than in classrooms. This is starkly evident in the general conventions and congresses of the political parties. The Nepali Congress general convention in December 2021 saw the attendance of as many as 263 school teachers and staff. The CPN-UML’s general convention in November of the same year had the presence of at least dozens of school teachers and staff. What’s more, teachers and staff have been found to be contesting local-level elections in the past, which is not just illegal but also morally reprehensible.
The ministry has roped in the Election Commission of Nepal to help identify the teachers and staff active in party politics. Previous such attempts by the commission have not proved successful, with both the educational institutions and the parties refusing to cooperate. This will indeed be a challenge this time, too, as the party-affiliated teachers and staff do not always appear on the paper trail.
Moreover, the very idea of punishing teachers and staff engaged in politics is certain to stumble upon ethical dilemmas. School and university teachers and staff have historically been the backbone of dissent and democracy in Nepal. The teachers’ strikes of 1979 and 1981 were instrumental in raising awareness about the atrocities of the Panchayat rule, apart from establishing the rights of teachers. During those days, too, the government had termed their activities illegal and punishable by law. Teachers across the country were punished for participating in political activities. But that was a necessary participation, guided by the zeal for establishing a democratic society, apart from improving the educational system and the working conditions of the teachers.
I am not entirely sure this is a great idea. But as the editorial says, it may also be a failed effort.
Climate Change and Farming
I had planned to end with the post above but came across this piece from Jeff Joseph for the Himal Mag: Nepal’s unescapable trap of migration, farming and climate change (29 March 2024). Himal Mag pieces are usually long form and gives a deep look into the country, so here you are.
“WE DON’T GET rain on time anymore,” said Purna Rana, a 51-year-old farmer in Sathikola village in mid-western Nepal. It was the middle of November 2023 and the winter chill was beginning to set in. “The summers are hotter and winters are colder each year,” he continued. “Last winter, I lost my tomatoes to a combination of mosaic virus, white flies and extreme cold.” Rana has been fighting all these threats even as extreme weather conditions exacerbate farming risks every year.
Rana was not always a farmer. He went to India to find work in 1991, when he was just 19. He trained as a radio repairman and electrician and shuttled for work between Shimla, Mumbai, Delhi and numerous small towns between these cities. After 21 years as a migrant, he returned to Nepal in 2012. He first planned to use his experience as a radio repairman to provide for his family, which included two school-going children. He made the hopeful but ill-considered move of opening a radio repair shop in his village. “How many radios do you think this village had?” he asked. Even the handful it had were soon made redundant by cheap mobile phones that doubled as radios.
Rana knew little about farming at the time, but a lack of options made him turn his full attention to the 1.5 acres or so of land in his possession – a large holding compared to the average in Nepal. He got a new electricity connection, installed a water pump and laid pipes for irrigation. The pump drew water from the Bheri, a major tributary of the Karnali River. In a country of many rainfed farms, Rana’s enterprise, combined with a location close to a river, pulled him into a relatively resource-rich agricultural bracket. But it cost him money – about NPR 1.5 lakh, or USD 1690 at the time – and the electricity rates are also high, not to mention the numerous other costs Rana incurs to continue farming.
“Migration, agriculture and climate change are closely interrelated in Nepal,” said Nilambar Badal, a labour migration expert at the Law and Policy Forum for Social Justice in Kathmandu. Agriculture in Nepal is characterised primarily by smallholder subsistence farming. About 70 percent of landholdings are of less than one hectare, with the average parcel size just 0.19 hectares. With only 54 percent of the total cultivable land area under irrigation, crop productivity is low. People dependent on agriculture, particularly in western Nepal, are among the poorest in the country.
Agriculture is the mainstay for roughly two-thirds of all Nepalis, engaging 4.13 million of the country’s 6.67 million households – but farming generates only a third of Nepal’s GDP. Almost half of all households in the country have a family member working abroad or returned from abroad. In 2023 alone, over 800,000 Nepalis went abroad to work – a figure approaching three percent of the country’s population of 29 million. As Amina Maharjan, a specialist on livelihoods and migration at the International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD), explained, “Migration in Nepal is economic and is driven by a lack of opportunities.”
Climate changes has made the lives of Nepalis—already precarious—more difficult.
That is it for today. Until, next Friday, everyone. Stay safe. Be well. Take care.
May every voter cast their vote for inclusion and egalitarianism rather than dominance, wherever the election.