From my reply to a comment:
The question is whether this poll specifically and other polls generally are accurately capturing the results of the 2024 presidential election.
Donald Trump has NEVER earned majority job approval.
He has NEVER earned 47% of the national popular vote.
He and President Biden faced each other last election.
The above fact makes it EXTREMELY unlikely that we would see huge generational shifts in support for each candidate in demographic groups.
The Democratic Party has overperformed in 38 special elections since Dobbs. Donald Trump is responsible for Dobbs and he admitted, "[I] ended Roe!"
It is much more difficult to reach our voters than yours. Marginalized communities are notoriously difficult to reach and they vote for the Democratic Party candidates.
Donald Trump underperformed his polling in the primary.
There are no less than eight events that would end the campaigns of any other nominee for president of a political party which occurred after the last time that Donald Trump was on the ballot.
The fundamentals favor President Biden. When is the last time that an incumbent president running for reelection lost when the unemployment rate was below six percent? The answer is Former President Gerald Ford but he lost because he pardoned Richard Nixon for Watergate. There is no analogous event here. The unemployment rate is 3.8%. This is the longest continuous period during which the unemployment rate has been below four percent since the 1960s. Inflation is a little above a third what it was at its peak. The United States has responded better to the economic consequences of the pandemic than any other nation in the G7. Our gross domestic product grew at a rate of 3.1% last year. 15 million jobs have been created since President Biden took office, 800,000 of them being manufacturing jobs. Wages are growing FASTER than inflation.
1. The insurrection. Tens of millions of people watched this event that Donald Trump incited.
The Indictments: Comey did NOT indict Hillary Clinton and just his morality sermon against her was sufficient to cost her the election. Nate Silver agrees with this. Therefore, it is difficult to imagine that this won't influence the voters who will decide this presidential election.
2. Campaign Finance Election Interference Indictment
3. RICO GA Indictment
4. The Espionage Act Violation Indictment
5. Federal January sixth Indictment
6. Trump corruptly ran his business according to our legal system.
7. Donald Trump was found liable for sexual assault.
8. Donald Trump admitted, "[I] ended Roe"
It is difficult or impossible to believe that this poll reflects what the final 2024 presidential election results will look like. Above are only some of the reasons why.