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Democrat New York State Senator Tim Kennedy is projected to win the special election for New York’s 26th US congressional district. Kennedy will represent the district which contains part of Buffalo and Niagra Falls for the remainder of the current term.
With 94% of the vote counted, Kennedy is leading Republican Gary Dickson 68.2% to 31.8%. Cook’s rating for the district is D +9, and Biden won the district with 62% in 2020. Kennedy was receiving 71% in Erie County and 55.5% in Niagara County.
Brian Higgins, the Democrat who has represented the seat since 2013, resigned in February to take another job. He won the 2022 election for the 26th District with 63.9% of the vote.
The fact that Kennedy is likely to beat both Joe Biden’s numbers as well as Higgins’ 2022 percentage is promising. While it would be easy to read too much into this decisive win, NY CD-26 has similarities to old industrial areas in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio.
When Kennedy is sworn in, the Republican majority in the US House will shrink to one vote temporarily.
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Once Mr. Kennedy is seated, Mr. Johnson’s margin will effectively shrink to just a single, tenuous vote on partisan issues. A handful of special elections in Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado and California are expected to offer Republicans reinforcements, but not until this summer.
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A liberal Democrat who ran with the support of the Working Families Party, Kennedy served as a state legislator since 2011 and dominated the congressional race against Dickson financially. He spent more than $1 million on the race — compared with Dickson, who spent around $21,000, according to the latest campaign disclosure reports. Kennedy also is running for the seat’s full term in 2024.
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Like Higgins, Kennedy hails from a heavily Irish pocket of South Buffalo where people identify where they live based on their Catholic parish. Few people who know him expect that his style in Washington will be drastically different than that of his predecessor…
The state Legislature redrew New York’s congressional maps earlier this year, and the lines that will be used in November are slightly more favorable to Democrats than the lines won by Kennedy on Tuesday.