This is more of a general election question, but what are the key battleground states for 2004? I have a bunch of data that I want to work through, but it all relates back to this question, and I think it'll help make it easier to answer. This is a long post, but not very dense, so I think you can read through it pretty easily.
Put more directly, my two-fold question is:
- which states that the Dems won in 2000 could we lose in 2004, and why and
- which states that the GOP won in 2000 could we win in 2004, and why.
Click below for more details - much more!
This is more of a general election question, but what are the key battleground states for 2004? I have a bunch of data that I want to work through, but it all relates back to this question, and I think it'll help make it easier to answer. This is a long post, but not very dense, so I think you can read through it pretty easily.
Put more directly, my two-fold question is:
- which states that the Dems won in 2000 could we lose in 2004, and why and
- which states that the GOP won in 2000 could we win in 2004, and why.
I'll start by listing the truly safe Dem and GOP states. Just to be safe, my criteria here is any state where (Gore + Nader) - (Bush + Buchanan) is +/- 10 points (aka the "spread").
Dems:
ST Spread EVs
CA 16 55
CT 13 7
DC 82 3
DE 16 3
HI 24 4
IL 15 21
MA 33 12
MD 20 10
ME 10 4
NJ 18 15
NY 29 31
RI 34 4
VT 16 3
I'm also adding WA to this list (spread = 9), which has 11 EVs. This gives the Dems 183 absolutely safe EVs.
Now for the GOP:
ST Spread EVs
GA (13) 15
NC (13) 15
AL (14) 9
KY (14) 8
MS (14) 6
SC (14) 8
IN (17) 11
KS (19) 6
MT (19) 3
TX (19) 34
AK (23) 3
OK (23) 7
SD (23) 3
NE (28) 5
ND (28) 3
UT (37) 5
ID (39) 4
WY (42) 3
I'm also willing to add LA's 9 EVs to this list. It had a spread of 8, though Clinton carried the state twice. Anyhow, so let's say that his gives the 157 absolutely safe EVs.
Now, let's look at the closer states, starting again with the Dems. I'm including the actual voting splits here, where "W" = Bush and "B" = Buchanan.
ST G/W/N/B Spread EVs
MI 51-47-2-0 6 17
MN 48-46-5-1 6 10
PA 51-47-2-0 6 21
OR 47-47-5-0 5 7
NM 48-48-4-0 4 5
WI 48-48-4-0 4 10
IA 49-48-2-1 2 7
This is the part where the wisdom of other DKos posters is vital. I don't know much about these states - can we take them, and their combined 77 electoral votes, once again? I can't think of any particular reason why NOT for any given state. But I'm sure some other, more knowledgeable folks can.
Now, the GOP potential toss-ups. Here, I've put Bush's percentage first.
ST W/G/N/B Spread EVs
NH 48-47-4-0 3 4
FL 49-49-2-0 2 27
MO 51-47-2-0 (2) 11
NV 49-46-2-1 (2) 5
OH 50-46-3-1 (2) 20
TN 51-48-1-0 (2) 11
AZ 51-45-3-1 (4) 10
WV 52-46-2-0 (4) 5
AR 51-45-2-1 (5) 6
CO 51-42-5-1 (5) 9
VA 52-45-2-0 (5) 13
These states represent 121 EVs. Now, I am sure plenty of people will object to see states like VA and CO on this list. But many others say that AZ (which had a 4-point spread) is in play.
Anyhow, if you want to look at only "truly close" states, let's call those with a 4-point spread or less. And there, the GOP is far more vulnerable than we are. There are 93 EVs in states which went for Bush by 4 or fewer points in 2000. There are only 22 in similar states that went for Gore.
So again, my question is, which states that the Dems won in 2000 could we lose in 2004, and why and which states that the GOP won in 2000 could we win in 2004, and why.
Obviously, this analysis suggests to me that the Dems are in a surprisingly strong position - or at least, that the GOP is more vulnerable than widely acknowledged. But of course, this depends on whether the status quo holds, we take states from them, or vice-versa. And if you have any thoughts on that, I'd love to hear them.