My Republican friend (I know, I know, but he's a Libertarian Republican so it's okay) and I had a long conversation tonight about 2008, and I am eager to hear what members of this community think about some of what we discussed.
Now, my friend is reasonably well plugged in to partisan Republicanship. On more than one occasion I have levelled that charge at him--that he's a Partisan hack--so I was especially delighed to hear HIM use the phrase "Bushbots" during our conversation. Not that that's anything earthshattering, but it surely means that in even hard-to-reach quarters, the bloom is off that rose bush. But on to 2008. . . .
The first thing my friend told me is that McCain's candidacy on the right is all about Hillary. McCain is selling himself as the Anti-Hillary, as the only one who can beat her. And, my friend says, that has significant appeal. According to my buddy, the generally feeling on the right is that Hillary really would defeat just about any Republican candidate. Any. Not right-wing propoganda: they really believe she will win. He gave some reasons for this, including the likelyhood that Hillary will peel off some of the married woman vote, one of the largest Republican constituencies, and her benefit having advisor Bill Clinton in her corner, etc. But the bottom line--and my buddy is reasonably plugged in--the fear of Hillary is real.
He also said there's no way McCain is getting the Republican nomination. He made it clear that rancor over McCain-Feingold is deep and considerable among a large enough portion of the Republican base to be prohibitive. He called McCain a Rino--at that point, I sympathetically mentioned Lieberman--and said there are monied interests in his party that simply will not allow it. His bet: Allen of Virginia.
And he felt a Hillary-Allen race goes to Hillary, no question.
Now, my friend also predicted we get at most three seats in the Senate, at most five in the House, in 2006; and he felt greatly reassured by CA-50. In other words, he is not optimistic about the cause of Democrats in general.
So what do people think? Allen vs. Hillary? Do we win?
My thoughts: because Democrats are so hungry to take back a branch of government, we will line up behind whoever our nominee is. (I am not saying I'm glad that it's true; I'm saying I think it's true.) And that the Republicans are going to have a very difficult time unifying their base--what George W. did so beautifully. Especially if say immigration remains unresolved. So I think the 2008 season looks good for us, too.
And Thank god. It's dry out here in the desert. . . .