or, Part I of the daily tracking update. We'll get to NH later.
Remember how in my inaugural post yesterday, I predicted that -- because of his comparative organizational weakness -- Kerry needed to open up a 5 point lead in IA to have a chance of winning? Well, he just did.
Zogby, 1/13-15, 503 likely, +/-4.5% (1/12-14 in paren):
Kerry 24 (22)
Gephardt 19 (21)
Dean 19 (21)
Edwards 17 (17)
Kerry also leads the "second-choice" field, which is critical in a caucus state. And here's a timely TNR piece that goes some way toward explaining Kerry's rise -- it seems that he might just have a much better ground operation in IA than CW would have us believe.